Z
zac
Guest
God only knows but according to rte business new 13% is switching/remortgage
- Status
Good point. In the US and most of Europe, GDP is about the same as GNP. In Ireland, I believe GDP is about 30% higher than GNP - skewed by multinational activity.
If we compare on the GNP basis it puts the Irish debt ratio closer to xxxxx <censored on the basis of being too scary even for this thread>
M
miju
Guest
point well made cellopoint and it certainly does detract from the credibility of the conversatino from both sides
Z
zac
Guest
StoppedClock... househole+government debt is 96% of GDP and that is lower than it was in 1990.
household debt is 72% of gdp and that is lower than US and UK. above eu average though, maybe deomograhics differences between ireland and eu? we are young they are old.
again please correct if see a prob(with source)
my source: , bank of ireland
i have been reading this thread couple of days and there a lot of negativity, and sometimes unfounded negativity. we better stop believing the rumours.
again, i wouldnt mind prices go down, i dont own a house.
agreed, it would be great if we could keep this to published/verifiable facts as often as possible rather than rumors. They don't help anybody.
If anyone has evidence of a major player in the market selling up then I'd definitly be interested! Chances are the smart ones ill keep it secret though.
See Fitches as reported here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/09/12/cctrade12.xml
Z
zac
Guest
thanks, think CSO dont publish residential property transactions,
800 per day is recent figure that i used..
problem is not all mortgage approvals result in peroprty transactions.im mortgage approved, havnt bought(yet), there are others out there like me.
S
Sidewinder
Guest
No, yer forgetting we're just emerging from a speculating frenzy where everyone and his dog was buying 2 or 3 BTL/"investment" properties. In terms of the number of properties we actually need each year, that's about 50-60K - and that's assuming immigration flows continuing at current rates. The "Pope's Children" demographic bulge has peaked for the usual "settling down and buying property" age group (say 25-35). If all the Poles decide to leave for pastures new, we really only need maybe 45K units a year.
There were 125K "investment" properties lying empty at the beginning of the year, with around 80K new units planned to be built in 2006.
We have massive oversupply, and that's before the stampede for the exits from the BTL/"investment" amateur brigade if prices start to fall.
S
Sidewinder
Guest
Plus, that 800-a-day figure includes equity-release, top-up and pure investor mortgages. FTBs and trader-upper mortgages only account for less than half of that.
Z
zac
Guest
gosh who to trust..
i guess fitch do not mean household debt, they are including all private sector debt i.e. also corporate debt.
if im buying house do i give monkeys about corporate debt?
[broken link removed]
[broken link removed]
Z
zac
Guest
we were just tryin to calculate property transactions because somebody said 5 yr supply is unoccupied..
investors mortgage to buy, no?
thanks for pointing out the that num included equity releases, rte reporter missed that.
Private sector credit growth is about 29% pa according to the CSO. Worth noting that securitised mortgage debt is NOT included in these figures? This seems odd because the debt originates in Ireland and would constitute private sector credit.
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007112.shtml
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10007112.shtml
G
genki33
Guest
I imagine some reasonable percentage of corporate debt is property debt also?
All those expensive sites in ballsbridge, etc, hardly show up on someones monthly mortgage statement. Yet.
All those expensive sites in ballsbridge, etc, hardly show up on someones monthly mortgage statement. Yet.
Z
zac
Guest
good point, what i have read is that worldwide there is very little correlation between residential and commercial property inflation, dont know whats the the correlation in irish commercial and residential markets... any ideas?
as a consumer my debt servicing is not imapacted by lets say intels or jury's debt.. theirs depends on economy, or macro economics, im not economist though take it by grain of salt,
I think that there is a pretty strong correlation between commercial and residential markets. London commercial suffered a severe slump in the early 90's as did Tokyo and New York (see link).
[broken link removed]
PS
A link to IPD which has good data on commercial returns, growth etc for Ireland.
[broken link removed]
Worth comparing these performance figures with Germany.
[broken link removed]
(Interesting how office rents have remained pretty much static in New York for the twenty year period covered in this chart)
S
sonar
Guest
"We're closer to Boston then Berlin"
That's been the boast over the years to reassure everyone that all is ok with our debt-based "approach" to the economy.
Just saw on Bloomberg TV a professor saying that Boston is now suffering the most severe property crisis in the US. The price falls recorded there are worse than anywhere else in the US.
Oh Dear!
That's been the boast over the years to reassure everyone that all is ok with our debt-based "approach" to the economy.
Just saw on Bloomberg TV a professor saying that Boston is now suffering the most severe property crisis in the US. The price falls recorded there are worse than anywhere else in the US.
Oh Dear!
CelloPoint
Registered User
- Messages
- 75
Lol, the new slant is hilarious!
I hope they don't start blaming the 'Anglo-Saxon' model when things go pear shaped....
The last thing this government needs (especially with all the trouble at the moment) is for the bubble to burst before the next election- Status