Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Maine]

After years of this thread,the bulls are still laughing all the way to the banks.
Rgds
Billo

Current bears should study the Nasdaq 1999 to 2006. Nasdaq bears looked stupid with with their logic as the Nasdaq soared in 1999 and 2000 up above the 5000 market. However it then promptly fell all the way down to 1500 as logic returned and mania subsided.

The problem for Ireland is incomes are not going to go up either in nominal or in real terms. IMO after the downturn of 2007 to 2010 property prices will not recover in nominal terms until maybe all the way to 2020.

Same as H Paulson admitted last month re US when he said middle american income had not risen thru 4 years of boom in the US ( he was head of G Sachs )

We are approaching our lost decade at speed.

In Nasdaq timelines we are at equivalent of 2000.

 

[JumpShot]

Apparently statistically, we're above average savers - but you have to set that off against a massive amount of consumer debt as well.

Debt repayment (principal component) is counted as savings in national statistics.

 

[beattie]

Yes I would. But like everything else you have to shop around for good location and price.

Billo

It looks like it mighn't be that difficult to find a 'bargain' in the future. The Sindo has a headline which might cause a few investors to offload their properties before it gets worse.


"Dublin property prices falling by up to 20 per cent"

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1694210&issue_id=14687

(needs registration)

 

[plaudit]

Maybe Billo could suggest a few propeties where we can expect yields of about 5-7% and capital appreciation of ~20% over the next 5 years?

 

[exile]

It's 12pm (in Ireland) and no one's pointed out the Sindo headline yet?

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Dublin property prices falling by up to 20 per cent

Not very ambiguous. Nothing too special in the article either - examples of reduced asking prices. Anyone spot their own example from this thread in the article? Do the Sindo do their research here too?

[/FONT]

 

[Calina]

It's 12pm (in Ireland) and no one's pointed out the Sindo headline yet?

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Dublin property prices falling by up to 20 per cent

[/FONT]

Well at 10.11.... there was some indication...

 

[fatmanknows]

It's 12pm (in Ireland) and no one's pointed out the Sindo headline yet?

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Dublin property prices falling by up to 20 per cent[/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Not very ambiguous. Nothing too special in the article either - examples of reduced asking prices. Anyone spot their own example from this thread in the article? Do the Sindo do their research here too?

[/FONT]

The evidence of what's really happenin out there (and what some savy AAM posters spotted months ago) is now starting to spill out. Expect such reports to gather momentum as conditions in the market become progessively worse. I think it's highly probable that capital appreciation on today's values are at least a decade away. In between that time however values are in for a serious dip as sap investors run for the exit. The evidence of the adjustment is now very apparent to all but the stubbornly headed amateur who still refuses to accept ( for a little while longer anyway) that it never was always a one way bet. As a breed I would not like to see this type of sap investor dissappear however, after all who else is gonna subsidise the roof over my head.

 

[exile]

Well at 10.11.... there was some indication...

What? There are other threads on this forum?

 

[magern]

I am looking to buy at present having sold a place in Swords in August, and I have noticed a number of trends that would suggest we
are definetely in a buyers market:

1) Pricies quoted on myhome on some properties have fallen in recent weeks

a) Portmarnock €430k now €415k
b) Clontarf €400k now €390k
c) Bray €400k now €385k

2) Three years ago when I brought you had to chase the selling agent to get a bid in whereas now they are ringing you after viewings to see if you are going to submit a bid.

3) Properties appear to be staying on the market for quiet a long time. I went sale agreed on my old place after a week in May, a neighbouring property has been on the market for the last 6 - 8 weeks.

 

[beattie]

I am looking to buy at present having sold a place in Swords in August, and I have noticed a number of trends that would suggest we
are definetely in a buyers market:

1) Pricies quoted on myhome on some properties have fallen in recent weeks

a) Portmarnock €430k now €415k
b) Clontarf €400k now €390k
c) Bray €400k now €385k

2) Three years ago when I brought you had to chase the selling agent to get a bid in whereas now they are ringing you after viewings to see if you are going to submit a bid.

3) Properties appear to be staying on the market for quiet a long time. I went sale agreed on my old place after a week in May, a neighbouring property has been on the market for the last 6 - 8 weeks.

Why are you going to buy in a market that is falling? Would you not be better to sit on the sidelines for the time being and get a sweeter deal in 6 months or so

 

[hmmm]

Hilarious site, if it wasn't so pathetic
http://iamfacingforeclosure.com/

 

[paddyd]

Interesting article in the Sunday Indo today about the amount of % drops in the 'high-end' of the Dublin market, especially at the auctions. Only 15% of houses at auction sold in past 2 weeks. Highest drop was 20% in AMV price. most were in the 5-10% range drops, which is still surprising.

interestingly, I was told a few weeks back that the auctioneer's were telling their friends to sell any investment property, as the market wouldn't hold the 2% yield compensating with capital appreciation anymore.

Maybe that explains the complete glut of property coming on the market for the new season since the beginning of Sept.

 

[liteweight]

It amazes me to think that so many on this thread will now sing the praises of the Sindo, just because it's agreeing the sentiment of the majority here. Usually none of you have a good word to say about it, or it's reporting!!

 

[paddyd]

hey don't worry, I never recommend the Sindo! they are always last to the party (or the funeral in this case?)

Could be worse, they could be the Economist

TBH, I think the market is just trimming the fat at the high-end. The Sindo only mentions the houses in PD-land, the 8.5mill house is now listing for 7.5mill. The 4.5mill house 'slashed' to 3.9mill. Do we care??

 

[exile]

It amazes me to think that so many on this thread will now sing the praises of the Sindo, just because it's agreeing the sentiment of the majority here. Usually none of you have a good word to say about it, or it's reporting!!

Just to be clear, as the person who linked to it (in this thread) - I think it's a rag However it's free on the web and I'm abroad...

 

[fatmanknows]

Just to be clear, as the person who linked to it (in this thread) - I think it's a rag However it's free on the web and I'm abroad...

Ain't nothing wrong with rags when they spew the odd grain of truth. Don't be expecting to see such headlines in the IT for a while.

 

[paddyd]

The IT will only realise the fat-trimming price adjustments when one of their contributors tries to sell their pile

and then write a panic article!

 

[markyboy]

Headline

"Dublin property prices falling by up to 20 per cent"

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1694210&issue_id=14687

Somehow, they managed to miss one of the properties in their own property section (oh and it's not even in Dubin!). This was in July, down to [broken link removed] today!

 

[plaudit]

I wouldn't buy the (S)indo except for its free on the net.

 

[beattie]

I wouldn't buy the (S)indo except for its free on the net.

But as so many people do buy it I would imagine articles like they ran today would have a major impact on the sentiment of a large cross section of the house buying (or selling) public. Maybe the O3 girls can do some analysis on sentiment next week.