Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Neffa]

You're probably right but even if they're being overstated by 50% they're still huge numbers.

Just thinking about this point.

London agents have often said that 2% of property for sale is effectively breakeven. Above that and you generally see prices trend downwards, below that and their is insufficient supply so prices rise.

In fact, one of the odd things we noticed about property in Dublin after returning from London was just how little there was for sale (I'm talking about the 3-4 bed family homes market, not the glut of 1-2 bed apartments). In our old street in London, with about 130 houses on it, 3 or so were sold every year. Contrast that with the area in Dublin we live in now where only 3 houses out of 500+ have sold in the last year.

We know from the census that there are about 1.8-1.9m households in the country. So it looks like Daft has 0.9% of the entire housing stock for sale at present. Question is - how much of the market do they cover? If it is only about 40% of the market, then that would suggest we are heading towards a tipping point. If they have a lot more than that, then perhaps supply is still tight.

 

[bearishbull]

Jaysis , enough with figures/numbers already ,this thread is'nt calculate my BTL property and the daft/myhome figures mean little by themselves unless you have complete market data for last year etc.

 

[BigM]

daft/myhome figures mean little by themselves unless you have complete market data for last year etc.

I agree the figures don't have any empirical value - and there's no point in comparing how many more houses there are on the sites now compared to last year (due to site popularity etc etc) but I still think they are useful for reinforcing (my own belief anyway) the anecdotal evidence that we are in a period of plentiful supply. Something also borne out by the bumper 76page IT supplement last week. The question remains, when does/has plentiful supply become oversupply?

 

[robd]

Have you just defined net yield as (income-expenses)/price?

Yes. Thats what Net Yield is (it doesn't include cost of finance).

In *none* of your calculations does the rent cover the mortgage.

I'm well aware of that. That was the whole point of the post.

 

[whathome]

Key workers can't afford houses in main cities

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0920/housing.html

Key public sector workers in Ireland - nurses, fire fighters, teachers and Gardai - can not afford to buy an average house in four out of five of the country's largest cities.

It says that nurses and members of the fire brigade are the worst affected key worker groups. Average house prices in Dublin are over 13 times the average salary of both professions.

... what about the average Joe/Jane? - they don't earn as much as public sector workers and certainly don't have the same level of job security. Are Halifax trying to inject public sector wage inflation so that house prices don't look as crazy? Public sector union leaders are going love this ammunition!

 

[whathome]

...interesting, Halifax did the exact same thing in the UK two months ago:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5225056.stm

UK : "The average property is beyond the reach of police, nurses, teachers, firemen and ambulance staff in all towns in the South-West, compared with 15% five years ago."

...they must have been happy with the results from the PR in the UK so tried the same trick here!

 

[sell em all]

Here's an interesting article from Brad Setser on the European housing bubble. From an Irish point of view the second graph is interesting. It suggests Irish residential investment reached 14% of GDP in 2005, way our of line with historical data and other countries (bar Spain). More fuel for those who believe even a slowdown(soft landing) could have a significant effect on the economy at large.
The other point he makes is that because of this level of investment supply is not the problem in ireland or Spain. It has to be demand!(investors, immigrants?). This is distinctly different from the other countries(GB, France Italy) where he sees supply as the main problem.
Regards
http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/setser/146495

 

[Duplex]

... what about the average Joe/Jane? - they don't earn as much as public sector workers and certainly don't have the same level of job security. Are Halifax trying to inject public sector wage inflation so that house prices don't look as crazy? Public sector union leaders are going love this ammunition!

Average Joe/Jane are not key workers, they merely earn the tax money to pay for key workers. You forget that Ireland operates in a perverse manner when it comes to economic truisms.

 

[whathome]

Average Joe/Jane are not key workers, they merely earn the tax money to pay for key workers. You forget that Ireland operates in a perverse manner when it comes to economic truisms.

As usual, it's the private sector workers that get ignored. Public sector jobs are more highly paid, have total job security and yet always seem to garner sympathy from the average Joe or Jane during industrial action.

Many of the people I know with multiple properties are teachers, Gardai, civil servants etc. Some with 3+ properties. The banks love lending to them because their jobs are so secure, this report doesn't take that into consideration!

 

[Remix]

...interesting, Halifax did the exact same thing in the UK two months ago:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5225056.stm

UK : "The average property is beyond the reach of police, nurses, teachers, firemen and ambulance staff in all towns in the South-West, compared with 15% five years ago."

...they must have been happy with the results from the PR in the UK so tried the same trick here!

More Details at finfacts

According to the study:

The problem:
The study recognises that the housing bubble has pushed prices way beyond the affordability level of key workers.

The solution:
Need more innovation in borrowing ! ha! ha!

You'd never guess the study was funded by a bank would you ?

 

[whathome]

You'd never guess the study was funded by a bank would you ?

You're right - it's also huge PR for their recently announced rebranding.

 

[whathome]

Doesn't look like cottages in Glasthule are the "must have" fashion accessory this winter:

[broken link removed]

 

[cjh]

Regarding the supply issue, there are 198 houses on daft in Mullingar, which seems to me to be alot..
With that kind of choice, it has to be a buyers market there.

 

[Duplex]

More Details at finfacts

According to the study:

The problem:
The study recognises that the housing bubble has pushed prices way beyond the affordability level of key workers.

The solution:
Need more innovation in borrowing ! ha! ha!

You'd never guess the study was funded by a bank would you ?

We should consider the American approach. Rather than inflationary and damaging wage demands or adding more debt to secure that most indebted nation on Earth title; how about a little deflation in house prices?

These figures relate to the past 30 days only, if one were to annualise the trend we are talking about 10-15% drops across the US.

http://housing-watch.com/home.aspx?d=30

 

[Neffa]

To get the same return over 30 years, the property woulod only have to increase 2.25% anually


What do you think???
Firefly

You've forgotten to subtract the subsidy each year for the gap between rent and mortgage - makes a big difference.

 

[SHARP]

Doesn't look like cottages in Glasthule are the "must have" fashion accessory this winter:

[broken link removed]

This link should be given to anyone who doesn't think that this country property market is on the edge of serious trouble.

Anyone that would spend half a million on some of these properties, really do need to be taken aside and slapped.

 

[mf1]

Finding this all very interesting - just to add my own tuppence worth.

For the first time in years, I noticed in August the use of the phrase "asking price" in ads. It is many years since anything other than "guiding" was used. Guiding became a euphemism for won't accept anything less than 10% above. Asking price sounds like willing to talk.

Passing DNG and Felicity Fox offices today - a number of properties with little stickers over the original price with the new reduced price.

Two clients stuck with can't sell properties in Palmerstown. Three investors exiting market ( perhaps even too late?) thinking capital appreciation is done.

I will continue to watch with great interest how it all unfolds.

mf

 

[mortimer33]

This link should be given to anyone who doesn't think that this country property market is on the edge of serious trouble.

Anyone that would spend half a million on some of these properties, really do need to be taken aside and slapped.

What do you mean?!
For only 400k you can get a spacious 478 sq ft apt that you can decorate to your very own taste..Ahem

 

[cjh]

This link should be given to anyone who doesn't think that this country property market is on the edge of serious trouble.

Anyone that would spend half a million on some of these properties, really do need to be taken aside and slapped.

It's a sad fact that the reason those properties probably won't be sold at those ridicilous prices is not because there aren't idiots to pay it, but because the banks can no longer loan the idiots the money due to ECB rate increases.

 

[murray]

Glasthule cottage sale agreed for 550 ish I am told from a very reliable source.........


mf1 - ''For the first time in years, I noticed in August the use of the phrase "asking price" in ads. It is many years since anything other than "guiding" was used. Guiding became a euphemism for won't accept anything less than 10% above. Asking price sounds like willing to talk. ''

mf1 , Dont be fooled - this came in when 'AMV' replaced 'guide price' etc... it is coincidential that the softening of the market happened at the same time..'asking price' was requested by the IAVI instead of the previously used 'in excess of' ..... all a load of s***e really - its worth what the market will pay.....blah..blah..blah...

I agree with SHARP - half a mill ! taking the pi** !!!