M
minky
Guest
It really puts the prices here into perspective doesn't it!
- Status
It really puts the prices here into perspective doesn't it!
hmmm,
You're quite right! The average return from the S&P 500 from 1965 to 2005 was 10.3% (with dividends re-invested) http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2005ltr.pdf
The property would have to increase by 7% annually adn yed I agree it is atall order. I have been a bull until recently as I mentioned before but it's not until you do a costing like this that it drives home how we are at a high. The numbers don't lie.....
Firefly
You're quite right! The average return from the S&P 500 from 1965 to 2005 was 10.3% (with dividends re-invested) http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2005ltr.pdf
The property would have to increase by 7% annually adn yed I agree it is atall order. I have been a bull until recently as I mentioned before but it's not until you do a costing like this that it drives home how we are at a high. The numbers don't lie.....
Firefly
That is what I would expect, my landlord in an exclusive estate in D4 is yielding approx 1.7%. I hope he keeps subsidising me for many months to come.....
bearishbull
Registered User
- Messages
- 207
Take alternative investment calculations and deliberations to the appropriate forum, every one on this thread knows(or should know) how overvalued dublin property is and all this has been covered many time before. Lets keep the thread to sentiment in irush market as it unfolds.
CelloPoint
Registered User
- Messages
- 75
That is what I would expect, my landlord in an exclusive estate in D4 is yielding approx 1.7%. I hope he keeps subsidising me for many months to come.....
I live in a rented townhouse in Darty - I calculated the yield around the 1% mark too...
My office colleague has a flat in Blanchardstown and it takes him about 2 hours to get to work in the morning - if only he'd swallow his pride and rent, he could live it up in D6 for about 60-70% of his mortgage in a volatile market.
S
Sidewinder
Guest
My sister and her husband just STR'd their house in Cavan, got 10K over the asking price, profit of nearly 150K...on the market for three days. Retired couple are buying so no chain.
Course, the rest of the family are loudly telling them they're mad, property only goes up, never going to be a crash, yadda yadda. I'm the only one telling them they did the right thing.
So Laddermania is alive and well. I guess sentiment won't really shift until the ECB raise rates another 50 basis points and the meeja begins to report the US crash.
Course, the rest of the family are loudly telling them they're mad, property only goes up, never going to be a crash, yadda yadda. I'm the only one telling them they did the right thing.
So Laddermania is alive and well. I guess sentiment won't really shift until the ECB raise rates another 50 basis points and the meeja begins to report the US crash.
Here's another house that failed at auction and is now asking significantly under it's auction AMV. It's in one of those areas that some people believe will not be hit....I really don't understand the thinking that redbricks in leafy suburbs are safe from falling prices, it's complete rubbish. Prices have rapidly scaled to unbelievable heights, there is absolutely no reason why they would not fall in these areas.
Original AMV €3,200,000
New price : €2,950,000
[broken link removed]
Original AMV €3,200,000
New price : €2,950,000
[broken link removed]
CelloPoint
Registered User
- Messages
- 75
This is something I have come around to over the last couple of weeks. In conclusion, I don't believe embassy belt red-bricks will survive the shock wave (the epicentre being in the Lucan/Adamstown area).
CelloPoint
Registered User
- Messages
- 75
Yeah, the bumper property supplements is something I have noticed alright. It is very hard to estimate how many properties are on the market at the moment, but I would guess this figure to be in the region of 50,000-70,000 at this moment in time.
Logic: 20k on daft, 20k on myhome, 20k in property supplements, 10k affordable housing (give or take a bit of overlap).
So yes, definite oversupply.
T
thewatcher
Guest
A five year old could tell you the same thing,but apart from the people on this thread and a few lonely souls in the media,very few other people want the merry-go-round to stop.
As bertie himself said,many irish have become so selfish they have no problem taking short term gain at the expence of the long term future of the nation and indeed their own children in many cases.
With the happenings in Thailand and Hungary this week it's kind of scary to see how shakey things can become very quickly in a democracy.
This country seems to be going down a very unequal route aswell where the interests of the few come before the interests of the many.
http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0920/housing.html
When a person on a good wage cannot afford to buy a home,then there is something very rotten going on in this country.
And the public sector workers are well paid so what chance do the rest of us have!
"the majority of whom are in well-paid public sector jobs (average pay in the public sector is some 30pc higher than that in the private sector). " from
http://www.chambers.ie/index.php?id=331
Probably linked previously but
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10006332.shtml
"the majority of whom are in well-paid public sector jobs (average pay in the public sector is some 30pc higher than that in the private sector). " from
http://www.chambers.ie/index.php?id=331
Probably linked previously but
http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10006332.shtml
Lets be generous and say it is "worth" US$ 2m. It is still up for sale for US$4m. IMO thats what is coming the way of the leafy suburb. US$2m at 5% is still a cost of US$100k.
This is also clear from the Toll Brothers link in that US house prices are significantly lower than Ireland.
"Lowish" prices relative outside the Pale mean the dream purchaser for house sellers is a trader downer from Dublin after cashing in who will pay an extra 50,000 if they like the property as they will have already achieved "Glasthule prices" on their property
Last edited:
There is no reason why something like this could not happen here:
HUNDREDS of Irish property investors were last night nervously monitoring the political crisis in Hungary after predictions that the value of their investments could plummet.
There are fears that the country's currency could fall 20pc against the euro, as the political and civil crisis adds to the country's already severe economic problems.
Such a fall would wipe out the property gains made by Irish investors over the last two or three years who bought in euro. It would also reduce the euro value of any rental income.
One analyst described the Hungarian situation as "an Asian-style financial crisis in the making".
"In a worst case scenario, the Hungarian forint could fall from 270 to the euro to 330 by the end of the year," said Maya Bhandari at London-based Lombard Street Research.
Even before the political eruptions, Hungary was wrestling with the biggest budget deficit and the largest government debt among the countries which joined the EU in 2004.
HUNDREDS of Irish property investors were last night nervously monitoring the political crisis in Hungary after predictions that the value of their investments could plummet.
There are fears that the country's currency could fall 20pc against the euro, as the political and civil crisis adds to the country's already severe economic problems.
Such a fall would wipe out the property gains made by Irish investors over the last two or three years who bought in euro. It would also reduce the euro value of any rental income.
One analyst described the Hungarian situation as "an Asian-style financial crisis in the making".
"In a worst case scenario, the Hungarian forint could fall from 270 to the euro to 330 by the end of the year," said Maya Bhandari at London-based Lombard Street Research.
Even before the political eruptions, Hungary was wrestling with the biggest budget deficit and the largest government debt among the countries which joined the EU in 2004.
I necessarily agree that THE epicentre will be in Lucan. Multiple epicentres; D15, North Co. Dublin (Balbriggin/Lusk etc), Lucan.
Anywhere where there is a high proportion of mixed developments (apartments/duplex/3&4 beds) with management fees.
My boss at work has been keeping me up to speed on her neices house sale in South City Dublin.
The AMV was 1m, but the were hoping to get 1.25/1.3m at auction. They had low inquiries and very few bookings for the auction - so they were getting very nervous. Then a guy offered 1.2m prior to auction - they were delighted, but said they were expecting 1.3m at auction (even though they were being realistic that 1m might not be achieved), they must be good at poker!. He came back with 1.27 - and they jumped on it.... There seems to still be a bit of strength in the market still - even with a genuine acknowldgement that things are much slower than they were!.
The AMV was 1m, but the were hoping to get 1.25/1.3m at auction. They had low inquiries and very few bookings for the auction - so they were getting very nervous. Then a guy offered 1.2m prior to auction - they were delighted, but said they were expecting 1.3m at auction (even though they were being realistic that 1m might not be achieved), they must be good at poker!. He came back with 1.27 - and they jumped on it.... There seems to still be a bit of strength in the market still - even with a genuine acknowldgement that things are much slower than they were!.
bearishbull
Registered User
- Messages
- 207
OBviously a certain amount of high end "must have" properties will nearly always sell . Seemed to be a lot of withdrawals at auctions yesterday
[broken link removed]
If its like this now whats it gonna be like when theres loads more for sale later in the "auction season"?
By looking at prices for those that sold its impossible for me to know whether prices where lower than expected or sales earlier in year.
B
Borderlord
Guest
Are these boys wise ?. Obviously they haven't read too much into the Florida market. I must say this thread is a must read.
From RTE business news
"FARMERS INVEST IN US GOLF COURSE - More than 100 Irish farmers have come together to fund the $200m (€157.8m) development of a championship golf course and the construction of 550 condominiums in Florida, says the Irish Examiner. The pioneering deal was masterminded by Irish off-farm investment consultants Farrelly and Mitchell, managers for Green Oak Holdings LLC, a US-based company, which is lead partner in the development. Farrelly and Mitchell directors, Philip Farrelly and Malachy Mitchell, set up Green Oak Holdings in 2005 raising equity from farmer investors. The investor equity was supplemented with bank debt bringing the total of this actively managed fund to approximately $25m (€19.6m) and growing. The company acquired its first asset, a retail centre worth $5.5m (€4.3m) in December 2005 and development land in a joint venture arrangement in early 2006."
From RTE business news
"FARMERS INVEST IN US GOLF COURSE - More than 100 Irish farmers have come together to fund the $200m (€157.8m) development of a championship golf course and the construction of 550 condominiums in Florida, says the Irish Examiner. The pioneering deal was masterminded by Irish off-farm investment consultants Farrelly and Mitchell, managers for Green Oak Holdings LLC, a US-based company, which is lead partner in the development. Farrelly and Mitchell directors, Philip Farrelly and Malachy Mitchell, set up Green Oak Holdings in 2005 raising equity from farmer investors. The investor equity was supplemented with bank debt bringing the total of this actively managed fund to approximately $25m (€19.6m) and growing. The company acquired its first asset, a retail centre worth $5.5m (€4.3m) in December 2005 and development land in a joint venture arrangement in early 2006."
- Status