Is it ever ever really paid?Funnily enough, the last €30,000,000,000 was paid, or set to be paid, via austerity measures.
This €30,000,000,000 is just being put on the books, carry on as normal.
Is it ever ever really paid?Funnily enough, the last €30,000,000,000 was paid, or set to be paid, via austerity measures.
This €30,000,000,000 is just being put on the books, carry on as normal.
Its further away than ever, we in Ireland , spain and Italy might like the Eurobonds alright where our government borrowing is backstopped by Germany and the Nordics. However can you imagine the consternation if welfare or public sector pay had to be cut to German levels and taxation increased for lower paid workers.I suppose there's a hope that this time there will be a coordinated EU response, a kind of Eurobond.
The whole issue of fiscal union was long-fingered after the 2008 crash but it's still there.
The EU have issued billions of euro worth of bonds to and done back to back lending with individual countries to pay for covid job protection schemes. Ireland alone has benefited from billions of cheap EU issued debt both from the financial crisis and from covid. Its still debt though. No matter how cheap it is.Its further away than ever, we in Ireland , spain and Italy might like the Eurobonds alright where our government borrowing is backstopped by Germany and the Nordics. However can you imagine the consternation if welfare or public sector pay had to be cut to German levels and taxation increased for lower paid workers.
The vaccine rollout shambles also shows that a "coordinated EU response" is not the best way of doing things . There is a big accountability deficit at the heart of the EU system, Ursula Von der Lyons wasn't democratically elected and there is no way of removing her now, The european parliament can't table a no confidence motion like you can in the Dail.
Yes thats all true but the debt is irish sovereign debt not european debt which a Eurobond would be. The ECB has stepped in to buy up all those european sovereign debt bonds, it had to step back in again recently when the italian government bonds started going back up in interest rate. How long though can the ECB continue to do this especially with the prospects of inflation on the horizon. Nobody especially the irish government is prepared for rising interest rates even a small bitIts still debt though. No matter how cheap it is.
"Inflation on the horizon "? Being hearing this since 2008 and it has never transpired. Can't see it being an issue when the dust settles if anything deflation is more likely.Yes thats all true but the debt is irish sovereign debt not european debt which a Eurobond would be. The ECB has stepped in to buy up all those european sovereign debt bonds, it had to step back in again recently when the italian government bonds started going back up in interest rate. How long though can the ECB continue to do this especially with the prospects of inflation on the horizon. Nobody especially the irish government is prepared for rising interest rates even a small bit
That's true but the commodities and materials are rising big time, ask anyone in the building industry. Their is a global shortage in the metals markets just as the world is about to go a spending boom and governments are ramping up their infrastructure investment. The tech and green booms are very "metals and materials" intensive. That's why the bond markets are trying to push up interest rates they no longer believe the "no inflation" narrative and the central banks have to come in to suppress them again ."Inflation on the horizon "? Being hearing this since 2008 and it has never transpired. Can't see it being an issue when the dust settles if anything deflation is more likely.
Yep, the price of aluminium has gone crazy recently.Their is a global shortage in the metals markets
I actually drank in what purported to be Cheers in Beacon Hill during the 1994 World Cup , basically a tourist trap.It's a bit like the 'slate' in the Rovers return... on the 'never never'
There's a question now. What fictional bar would you most like to have a pint in?
Cheers of Boston?
The vaccine rollout shambles also shows that a "coordinated EU response" is not the best way of doing things . There is a big accountability deficit at the heart of the EU system, Ursula Von der Lyons wasn't democratically elected and there is no way of removing her now,
She was proposed by the European Council, which is made up of the EU's heads of State. She was then elected by the European Parliament so yes, she was democratically elected. Your statement is factually incorrect.Ursula Von der Lyons wasn't democratically elected
There's been a lot more fuel thrown on the fire in the last 12 months. Increased money supply in the West after 2008 resulted in massive wage inflation in South East Asia. That sink is almost full."Inflation on the horizon "? Being hearing this since 2008 and it has never transpired. Can't see it being an issue when the dust settles if anything deflation is more likely.
The bond markets are pricing in expected inflation in Eurozone of c. 0.8% per annum to end of 2028. There's a lot of money behind those projections.There's been a lot more fuel thrown on the fire in the last 12 months. Increased money supply in the West after 2008 resulted in massive wage inflation in South East Asia. That sink is almost full.
It's a great discussion to have over a pint!But that's got nothing to do with going for a pint!
Isn't it fair to say that the short term (2 year or so) yield curve is more a reflection of stated policy from the FED and ECB rather than economic forecasts whereas the longer term yield curve is a reflection of actual economic forecasts?The bond markets are pricing in expected inflation in Eurozone of c. 0.8% per annum to end of 2028. There's a lot of money behind those projections.
Wait til I pour a drink here!!Isn't it fair to say that the short term (2 year or so) yield curve is more a reflection of stated policy from the FED and ECB rather than economic forecasts whereas the longer term yield curve is a reflection of actual economic forecasts?
I'm starting to well up...Wait til I pour a drink here!!
Pint in hand (I wish!!)Isn't it fair to say that the short term (2 year or so) yield curve is more a reflection of stated policy from the FED and ECB rather than economic forecasts whereas the longer term yield curve is a reflection of actual economic forecasts?
Yes but what was their expected inflation target for 2028 a year ago? I bet it was a lot lower than 0.8% therefore just because they predict 0.8% now doesn't mean that they will be correct. The fact is that the bond markets in total are trying to push interest rates up now whereas they were not doing that a year ago therefore things are changing. The future projection of inflation is a moving target, I bet the projection of where the bond markets predict inflation will be in 2028, will be higher next year.The bond markets are pricing in expected inflation in Eurozone of c. 0.8% per annum to end of 2028. There's a lot of money behind those projections.
Why don't you look it up rather than making statements?Yes but what was their expected inflation target for 2028 a year ago? I bet it was a lot lower than 0.8%