Why (the state) bailing out housing market is a bad idea..mcwilliams indo article
- Thread starter Jethro Tull
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sandymount
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Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
and anyone who invested in a PRSA.
I think anyone who took a patriotic punt on Irish companies by investing in the ISEQ should also be compensated. And eircom too. And taxi drivers.
and anyone who invested in a PRSA.
television
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Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
You make fair points but I still say overall affordability is the key taking into account the fact that there is usually a two income household today.
You make fair points but I still say overall affordability is the key taking into account the fact that there is usually a two income household today.
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
Because people work more and tend to have fewer kids later in life right? How does the correlate with your exponential population growth theory?
television
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Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
even is this is the case, as this existing stock of house is being habitated in stands to reason that the remaining stock of property as it gets smaller and smaller must move up in price, perhaps after a low but the movement must be upwards.
even is this is the case, as this existing stock of house is being habitated in stands to reason that the remaining stock of property as it gets smaller and smaller must move up in price, perhaps after a low but the movement must be upwards.
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
I don't quite understand this reverence for mcwilliams - economies are cyclical, and after a period of growth lasting 15 years, we were due a slowdown.
The fact that he was wrong about the slowdown by about 8 years doesn't really say much for his timing. But since some of our economists on the other side were apes as well in pulling predictions out of their rears, they all balance each other out.
It's not the first time it happened, it won't be the last time it happens.
Granted there were people who assumed things would stay as they were forever - due to the fact that they had never seen a recession.
The sky isn't going to fall down, life will go on.
There's money to be made in a slowdown too - just takes a bit more effort.
I don't quite understand this reverence for mcwilliams - economies are cyclical, and after a period of growth lasting 15 years, we were due a slowdown.
The fact that he was wrong about the slowdown by about 8 years doesn't really say much for his timing. But since some of our economists on the other side were apes as well in pulling predictions out of their rears, they all balance each other out.
It's not the first time it happened, it won't be the last time it happens.
Granted there were people who assumed things would stay as they were forever - due to the fact that they had never seen a recession.
The sky isn't going to fall down, life will go on.
There's money to be made in a slowdown too - just takes a bit more effort.
television
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Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
Population in ireland is set to increase even by the lowest estimate by a million in the next twenty years. I am no expert in population, but everythin I read says dublins population will increase hugly in the next ten to 15 years. And for the record people are living longer which is addign to the population, global population is set to double over the next 50 years thats 14 billion poeple, mark my words a lot will end up in ireland.
Population in ireland is set to increase even by the lowest estimate by a million in the next twenty years. I am no expert in population, but everythin I read says dublins population will increase hugly in the next ten to 15 years. And for the record people are living longer which is addign to the population, global population is set to double over the next 50 years thats 14 billion poeple, mark my words a lot will end up in ireland.
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
I agree with most of this except respecting his strong feeling. I can't respect this particular one.
I made my own decision not to buy based on reading many articles including DMcW. He is right now but he was bound to be in my opinion. At least he gave an opioion.
I agree with most of this except respecting his strong feeling. I can't respect this particular one.
I made my own decision not to buy based on reading many articles including DMcW. He is right now but he was bound to be in my opinion. At least he gave an opioion.
aircobra19
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Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
Is that through choice or because they need to?
Is that through choice or because they need to?
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
I don't think many people on this forum have a reverence for McWilliams but at the same time, they don't have much reverence for people who refuse to accept the economical reality that we now face and continue to think that if we refuse to acknowledge our problems, they will go away.
I don't think many people on this forum have a reverence for McWilliams but at the same time, they don't have much reverence for people who refuse to accept the economical reality that we now face and continue to think that if we refuse to acknowledge our problems, they will go away.
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
I for one am waiting for polygamy to be legalised as a support to the housing market. I'll then be able to accumulate the 5 wives necessary to afford a 2 bed apartment in Stepaside. This property price boom may have some benefits after all.
ubiquitous
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Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
McWilliams never predicted that the housing boom would collapse on a particular date in 200X. All he said was that the boom was unsustainable. Most other commentators were claiming that it would last pretty much forever and that property prices would in the meantime grow ad infinitum. Hence it was fine for young people to get themselves further and further into debt in order to buy a home. Anyone remember the famous Prime Time debate of Sept/Oct 2003 between McWilliams & Austin Hughes?
McWilliams never predicted that the housing boom would collapse on a particular date in 200X. All he said was that the boom was unsustainable. Most other commentators were claiming that it would last pretty much forever and that property prices would in the meantime grow ad infinitum. Hence it was fine for young people to get themselves further and further into debt in order to buy a home. Anyone remember the famous Prime Time debate of Sept/Oct 2003 between McWilliams & Austin Hughes?
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
...which would make the correction level for average house prices @ €145,000. Long way to go yet, folks......
...which would make the correction level for average house prices @ €145,000. Long way to go yet, folks......
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
250K of Houseing Stock is currently empty , that means 750K of housing needs to be filled before we need to build anything more - how long on your projected figures do you think this will take to fill - from your data you say 1m population growth over the next 20 years - so it will take 15 years to fill this housing stock based on your numbers ( and that is with no new builds) - how does that lead to rising prices????????
250K of Houseing Stock is currently empty , that means 750K of housing needs to be filled before we need to build anything more - how long on your projected figures do you think this will take to fill - from your data you say 1m population growth over the next 20 years - so it will take 15 years to fill this housing stock based on your numbers ( and that is with no new builds) - how does that lead to rising prices????????
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
Better get those supports in place so. Polygamy, polygamy, polygamy. It's the only viable solution.
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
My point is that it is a bit of a stretch to use 'fact' to pinpoint a year for a recovery.
My point is that it is a bit of a stretch to use 'fact' to pinpoint a year for a recovery.
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
250,000 houses on daft etc is not generally 250,000 differnet houses. Many houses are represented several times so the figure could be halved I would think.
250,000 houses on daft etc is not generally 250,000 differnet houses. Many houses are represented several times so the figure could be halved I would think.
Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea
But he also advocated the government not stepping in in any form.
The fact that he suggests nothing concrete (no pun intended), and the fact that our government is doing absolutely nothing, is probably also not a good thing. (Summer holidays in a time of crisis?)
Actions can be taken that would help in some degree. We are not talking about a mass bailout, but steps to alleviate some of the credit problems out there would be a start.
If the banks want a bailout the gov/people of ireland should receive stock or a % of future profits from any institution it helps out.
If the banks feel this is a necessary step to impose on developers, they should be willing to have the same happen to them.
There are steps that can be done to avoid a mass panic of people who only know up/ and don't understand down.
Stability of some form is key, as people tend to over react in situations like this, making things worse.
If doing nothing is what our leaders are doing, why bother having them in the first place.
But he also advocated the government not stepping in in any form.
The fact that he suggests nothing concrete (no pun intended), and the fact that our government is doing absolutely nothing, is probably also not a good thing. (Summer holidays in a time of crisis?)
Actions can be taken that would help in some degree. We are not talking about a mass bailout, but steps to alleviate some of the credit problems out there would be a start.
If the banks want a bailout the gov/people of ireland should receive stock or a % of future profits from any institution it helps out.
If the banks feel this is a necessary step to impose on developers, they should be willing to have the same happen to them.
There are steps that can be done to avoid a mass panic of people who only know up/ and don't understand down.
Stability of some form is key, as people tend to over react in situations like this, making things worse.
If doing nothing is what our leaders are doing, why bother having them in the first place.