Why (the state) bailing out housing market is a bad idea..mcwilliams indo article

[Berni]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Your forgetting one simple thing. The law of supply and demand. Population of ireland set to double in 30 years. Need I say more. 3 more years of stagnation followed by decent growth.

You might not want to place too much faith in that doubling of population.
The most recent population and labour force projections are here [broken link removed]

If you look at page 33, you will see that there are actually a range of possible values, depending on the levels of migration and fertility. For 2041 it ranges from 4,893,000 to 7,072,200. And given that we currently have 4,232,900, you could be looking at very little increase at all.

 

[television]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

let say its somewhere in beween for argument sake, thatas a population of 6.5million. Substantial in any case. And centered around main urban centers in my guess. Which will have an impact.

 

[Bronte]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

let say its somewhere in beween for argument sake, thatas a population of 6.5million. Substantial in any case. And centered around main urban centers in my guess. Which will have an impact.

Unless the opposite happens and everyone heads off looking for work for the UK/Australia/USA

 

[Berni]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

let say its somewhere in beween for argument sake, thatas a population of 6.5million. Substantial in any case. And centered around main urban centers in my guess. Which will have an impact.

I like how your somewhere in between is still almost the max figure
Only two out of the six projections get you anywhere near that, and they require continued high immigration:


M1:

Immigration continuing at a high level and then moderating

• +60,000 per annum in 2006/2011​

• +50,000 per annum in 2011/2016

• +40,000 per annum in 2016/2021

• +30,000 per annum in 2021/2026

• +30,000 per annum in 2026/2031

• +30,000 per annum in 2031/2036

• +30,000 per annum in 2036/2041​

Do you honestly see us continuing to have a net immigration of 50 - 60K people with the This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language falling out of our economy?​

 

[charliemacck]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Why do people keep mentioning the Japanese. We are nothing like the Japanese, you might as well say that Ireland is going to become an imperial naval power and invade Manchuria. Please stop talking up the ginger media darling, I'm sure his salary gets an increase every time someone mentions him. He's been banging on the same old drum for what must be 15 years now. It's only unfortunately that people started beleving him and his prophecies became self-fulfilling. As I've said before we need to support those who are in crisis now, perhaps through extra tax and mortgage measures, cutting stamp duty altogether. I would hope that the media play its part by also cutting out unecessary pessismism - they could take a lead from askaboutmoney where negative speculation is banned. I think it's selfish that those here would throw them to the wolves. No doubt many of those don't own property and are just gloating at the situation that the ordinary people of Ireland now find themselves in.

 

[Kemo_Sabe]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Why do people keep mentioning the Japanese. We are nothing like the Japanese, you might as well say that Ireland is going to become an imperial naval power and invade Manchuria. Please stop talking up the ginger media darling, I'm sure his salary gets an increase every time someone mentions him. He's been banging on the same old drum for what must be 15 years now. It's only unfortunately that people started beleving him and his prophecies became self-fulfilling. As I've said before we need to support those who are in crisis now, perhaps through extra tax and mortgage measures, cutting stamp duty altogether. I would hope that the media play its part by also cutting out unecessary pessismism - they could take a lead from askaboutmoney where negative speculation is banned. I think it's selfish that those here would throw them to the wolves. No doubt many of those don't own property and are just gloating at the situation that the ordinary people of Ireland now find themselves in.

what a load of pure baloney, we are exactly like the Japanese. Property bubble fuelled to insane heights by cheap credit and unfettered greed, aligned to spineless political class - tick for both

David McWilliams caused the recession?

grredy, self-serving, politican-bribing developers are 'patriots' and should be bailed out by the taxpayer?

you're off your trolley, give me a break

 

[television]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Do you honestly see us continuing to have a net immigration of 50 - 60K people with the This post will be deleted if not edited to remove bad language falling out of our economy?​

Yes, as global population increases rapidly I do see this.

 

[television]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Why do people keep mentioning the Japanese. We are nothing like the Japanese, you might as well say that Ireland is going to become an imperial naval power and invade Manchuria. Please stop talking up the ginger media darling, I'm sure his salary gets an increase every time someone mentions him. He's been banging on the same old drum for what must be 15 years now. It's only unfortunately that people started beleving him and his prophecies became self-fulfilling. As I've said before we need to support those who are in crisis now, perhaps through extra tax and mortgage measures, cutting stamp duty altogether. I would hope that the media play its part by also cutting out unecessary pessismism - they could take a lead from askaboutmoney where negative speculation is banned. I think it's selfish that those here would throw them to the wolves. No doubt many of those don't own property and are just gloating at the situation that the ordinary people of Ireland now find themselves in.

Agree with your point on Japan, but we should not prop up the housing market any longer, let it take its natural slide downward. Those who were stupid enough to buy in the last 4 years, its a harsh lesson, but if you are bought to have a home ur not really effected.

 

[Yosser]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Yes, as global population increases rapidly I do see this.

Then you're deluded. Wishful thinking is not the same as analysis. So, with a struggling economy what will 60 thousands immigrants work at? I'll say it again you are deluding yourself mate.

 

[charliemacck]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Agree with your point on Japan, but we should not prop up the housing market any longer, let it take its natural slide downward. Those who were stupid enough to buy in the last 4 years, its a harsh lesson, but if you are bought to have a home ur not really effected.

Now I think that's unfair, it was not stupid at all. if it was stupid, then why were people on this forum not warned by the experts? you can't blame the ordinary decent people of Ireland for trusting experts.

 

[benji2006]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Yes, as global population increases rapidly I do see this.

Global population was also increaing rapidly back in the 80's but that didn't lead to immigration

 

[Yosser]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Now I think that's unfair, it was not stupid at all. if it was stupid, then why were people on this forum not warned by the experts? you can't blame the ordinary decent people of Ireland for trusting experts.

Who were the experts you are talking about? Dan McLoughlin? Austin Hughes? Tom Parlon? Dare I say it Brendan Burgess?

 

[benji2006]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Now I think that's unfair, it was not stupid at all. if it was stupid, then why were people on this forum not warned by the experts? you can't blame the ordinary decent people of Ireland for trusting experts.

people hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest.....

 

[z109]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Now I think that's unfair, it was not stupid at all. if it was stupid, then why were people on this forum not warned by the experts? you can't blame the ordinary decent people of Ireland for trusting experts.

Because discussion of the possibility of downside risk to housing prices was temporarily suspended. Only the possibility of prices rising, for investment purposes, was allowed. This was not just on this forum, but through the nation.

 

[charliemacck]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Who were the experts you are talking about? Dan McLoughlin? Austin Hughes? Tom Parlon? Dare I say it Brendan Burgess?

Don't know some of those names, but yes, if they are experts in the media and did not tell ordinary Joe Soaps they should not buy property in the last four years, then it is their moral duty to support measures to help the ordinary people out. It would terrible if these people did not support my measures. I feel very strongly about this and if there are any plans to set up an askaboutmoney pro-property lobby group I would welcome any invite to support it.

 

[webtax]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Now I think that's unfair, it was not stupid at all. if it was stupid, then why were people on this forum not warned by the experts? you can't blame the ordinary decent people of Ireland for trusting experts.

Please stop talking up the ginger media darling, I'm sure his salary gets an increase every time someone mentions him. He's been banging on the same old drum for what must be 15 years now. It's only unfortunately that people started beleving him and his prophecies became self-fulfilling.

 

[z109]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Besides, DmcWilliams, Alan Ahearne, Morgan Kelly and others, including the Central Bank of Ireland, the IMF, the economist magazine did warn. They were dismissed as begrudgers then and now they are dismissed as stopped clocks. Who wants to be told that they have just wee'd away all their equity or locked themselves into an investment apartment that may pay its way in 10 years if they throw enough money at it in the meantime?

 

[Yosser]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Don't know some of those names, but yes, if they are experts in the media and did not tell ordinary Joe Soaps they should not buy property in the last four years, then it is their moral duty to support measures to help the ordinary people out. It would terrible if these people did not support my measures. I feel very strongly about this and if there are any plans to set up an askaboutmoney pro-property lobby group I would welcome any invite to support it.

You are joking aren't you? If you're not joking then I would suggest anyone reading this should ignore you as you are a long way off having any understanding of economics. You are so off beam it is actually funny.

 

[DerUnkle]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

Quote:Television


Poople have to live somewhere. That is a fact.




Yes, so they could rent for half the price of owning........

 

[Yosser]

Re: Why bailing out housing market is a very bad idea

They might be able to use capitalisation and spell "Finnish" properly though:

Congratulations! Full marks for pedantry! Any more wonderful contributions to the debate?