Brendan Burgess
Founder
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And he has been taken in by the mania.
Brendan
Hi Fella
We have gone over this before. You have paid $7,000 or whatever, for something which you know has no intrinsic value, because there are people out there who think it is worth that. There is absolutely no basis for valuing this at anything other than Zero.
That is crazy for someone who understands gambling and risk.
Brendan
Scarcity is front and centre when it comes to the price of gold. It's ludicrous to suggest otherwise. Look at any study that examines the essential characteristics of a store of value and scarcity is at the top of the list.Rarity and expense probably contribute to the price of gold.
As jewelry it is clearly being used for the most part as a store of value. The industrial use cases are peripheral. I've cited data from the World Gold Council (WGC) previously to back this up.But it's appearance in jewelry and industry is very important.
I wonder if the people who have gold gathering dust and stored professionally in vaults around the world have ever seen it either?I wonder if people who compare BTC to gold have every seen gold jewelry or ornaments?
Again, we've been over this. Like his Dukeness, you have never been objective enough to examine the facets of bitcoin that are positive in terms of use as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Tulipania is in no way relevant to this conversation as it doesn't fulfill any of those characteristics.Your reasoning would have had you buying tulips during tulipmania.
Thank you for your service Brendan. Because of the irrational stance that you and others take at the earlier stages of the adoption of digital assets, it allows opportunity for others to benefit and capitalise on that.On the contrary, I love Bitcoin. If people are prepared to pay $15,000 for something which is worth nothing, I can make money out of it.
The price of gold is a construct of its use as a store of value - and not industrial uses. Its use as jewelry is that of a store of value for the most part also (as confirmed by the World Gold Council). If this wasn't the case, why would its price far, far exceed its production cost?But if people didn't like gold in jewelry would it still be that expensive?
That price volatility dissipates over time as adoption and overall market capitalisation expands is entirely logical.I think the most likely thing is Bitcoin is around in some form for good , its price stabilises and it becomes a more mainstream store of wealth . I absolutely do not foresee it going to zero or worthless . Therefore I'm going to take a stake in Bitcoin.
If people are not prepared to compare the general characteristics point by point against FIAT money or Gold, there's little chance they will be open to identifying the value add in terms of its ability to be transferred digitally and uncensored on a peer to peer basis, it's superior divisibility and its locked in fixed supply.The thing is why try to compare Bitcoin to something else ?, it's not gold ,its not art , its not digital gold and its not tulips. So these debates end up comparing it to gold and they go around in circles about Gold having value and been used in industry or whatever. You can't compare Bitcoin to anything else its a new technology I do think it has a place and offers an alternative to government backed money.
As well you know, this has been explained to you umpteen times. You don't roll out a brand new asset starting from ground zero without price volatility. That volatility declines as its overall market capitalisation increases and as the price discovery process and Bitcoin adoption progresses. To that very point, https://en.longhash.com/news/data-shows-bitcoins-price-volatility-has-been-declining-over-its-10-year-history (the data) shows that Bitcoin's price volatility continues to decrease over time. Meanwhile, a conventional asset that has been front and centre of the old economy over the past century (Oil) has been far more volatile than Bitcoin this year - yet you don't get in any way animated about that.52 week high 13,796 52 week low 4,106This is meant to be a currency for heaven's sake, a store of value.
Again with the emotive and inflammatory 'cultist' jibe. This from a guy who - as part of these discussions has never once been objective enough to outline the aspects of Bitcoin which are positive and rarely explored the deficiencies in the FIAT money system.But that comment suggests to me that you are trying to convince yourself to be part of the cult.
Once again with the 'mania'. Where is this 'mania' to be found? There was market over-exuberance in late 2017 but we're a couple of years on from that.That's what surprised me about Fella buying BTC. It's clearly worth nothing. And he has been taken in by the mania.
In this instance, quite easily if Dukey agrees to it.How exactly would Duke pay for these pints in Bitcoin?
If it has zero value today, go out onto the markets this very moment and short it then. Put your intrinsically valueless FIAT money where your mouth is Brendan.We have gone over this before. You have paid $7,000 or whatever, for something which you know has no intrinsic value, because there are people out there who think it is worth that. There is absolutely no basis for valuing this at anything other than Zero.
Precisely this. It's irrational not to on this basis as it's asymmetric risk that you're taking on.It's not like I have 100% of my wealth in Bitcoin I have less than 2% I would encourage people to diversify . I don't think holding Bitcoin as part of a balanced portfolio is irrational.
On the contrary. See above. With a 2% allocation, he understands risk far better than you do. It's a case of asymmetric risk.That is crazy for someone who understands gambling and risk.
But how? I'm not aware of any pub that accepts Bitcoin are you?In this instance, quite easily if Dukey agrees to it.
This thread is about Bitcoin's use case as a store of value and/or digital gold. You're quite fixated on transactional use. However, it's quite simple - have Dukey accept the offer and all will be revealed if/when BTC goes to 20K.But how? I'm not aware of any pub that accepts Bitcoin are you?
I would encourage people to diversify
Two lasts of wheat | 448ƒ |
Four lasts of rye | 558ƒ |
Four fat oxen | 480ƒ |
Eight fat swine | 240ƒ |
Twelve fat sheep | 120ƒ |
Two hogsheads of wine | 70ƒ |
Four tuns of beer | 32ƒ |
Two tuns of butter | 192ƒ |
1,000 lbs. of cheese | 120ƒ |
A complete bed | 100ƒ |
A suit of clothes | 80ƒ |
A silver drinking cup | 60ƒ |
Total | 2500ƒ |
As you're now in Bitcoin, did you consider diversifying across the thousands of other crypto options?
That's not answering the question to be fair and you know it. As far as I am aware nowhere in Ireland accepts Bitcoin to buy pints, so the Duke could not accept the offer.....However, it's quite simple - have Dukey accept the offer and all will be revealed if/when BTC goes to 20K.
Indeed we have Brendan - and never once have you acknowledged one single characteristic of Bitcoin that contributes towards it being a good store of value or means of exchange. I can see a rationale in arriving at a viewpoint that on the whole, you feel it's inferior. I can't if you can't acknowledge its positive attributes and include those in forming your opinion on it. That's not credible.We have gone over all the points many times.
I see few attributes in tulips as a store of value or means of exchange but how was it a 'cult'? You mean people that held a certain opinion?There was a cult behind tulipmania.
Except that the analogy is misplaced. Perhaps if you likened Tulipmania to the Irish housing boom n' bust, those would be comparatively closer.Anyone who claimed that it wasn't was told that the market determines the value. If someone was prepared to pay all that for a single bulb, then it was worth that and was not just a tulip bulb.
There was major over exuberance in the dot com bubble. Many investors got badly burnt as a consequence. However, out of that came something entirely relevant. Most tech startups were vaporised. However, to say that there wasn't something tangible at the heart of it is inaccurate as emerging from it came the likes of Amazon, Ebay, Qualcomm, Cisco and many others. Furthermore, that same wave of innovation led on to the development of the other FAANG companies - who today have a combined market capitalisation of $5 Trillion.It was the same with the dot.com mania.
As outlined above, Tulipmania wasn't based on anything tangible - so lets take that out of the equation entirely. The technology implicated in the dotcom boom was very much tangible and shapes our world today. Can people become irrational and both overvalue and undervalue something? Absolutely. However, that doesn't leave Bitcoin with a price of zero. The only frame of reference that you have is the 2017 price surge when Bitcoin had been through that cycle four times previously. This is nothing new - and it doesn't stop Bitcoin. Taking the surges out of the equation, over the long term, it's price goes up with adoption. Bear in mind too that the dot com bubble was a factor of EIGHT times larger than crypto.I remember reading Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds and I wondered how could so many clever people behave so stupidly. And we see it again now with Bitcoin.
So you're leaving that open to cryptos that pursue entirely different use cases? If not, and it's the shortlist of cryptos in the same category as Bitcoin, which would you suggest and why? Don't get me wrong - I'm quite happy to accept that Bitcoin is not a done deal - but I'm curious to know as it stands today what you would suggest as being superior technologically and in terms of network effect to usurp it.As you're now in Bitcoin, did you consider diversifying across the thousands of other crypto options?
As pointed out, your question is...That's not answering the question to be fair and you know it. As far as I am aware nowhere in Ireland accepts Bitcoin to buy pints, so the Duke could not accept the offer.....
As outlined above, Tulipmania wasn't based on anything tangible - so lets take that out of the equation entirely.
As pointed out, your question is...
1. Off topic for this thread.
In this instance, quite easily if Dukey agrees to it.
However, it's quite simple - have Dukey accept the offer and all will be revealed if/when BTC goes to 20K.
I'm just asking you a simple question that's all....you're saying someone could buy you pints with Bitcoin and I'm just asking how......3. Rhetorical - as it's been discussed many times with you on other threads. Bitcoin's use as it stands today is limited as a medium of exchange. You want me to acknowledge that as it seems this satisifes the set view you take on it - as it seems to your mind, if something doesn't fulfill a role at this very moment, then it never can and never will. Technology and innovation doesn't stand still and you're wrong in your assumptions. If I were to get on the upside of that little wager, Dukey will be paying in Bitcoin though. For that, he would have to back his convictions and accept the wager.
Boss I was impressed by your scarce poetry. But now you launch your toenails. Next it will be your finger nails. I see a proliferation of Brendanalia though you are unlikely to match Bitcoin with its 2,000 lookalikes.My toenails meet all those criteria but no one wants to buy them.
Now I know what being quoted out of context means. My post was in response to the following:As well you know, this has been explained to you umpteen times. You don't roll out a brand new asset starting from ground zero without price volatility.
The fact that you have explained its volatility umpteen times actually reinforces my distancing myself from Fella's opinion that btc volatility is now a thing of the past.Fella said:if you look at Bitcoin now over the last year or so it hasn't actually moved that much
And whilst you claim I am missing the point, you are conveniently skirting around it.You are missing the point.
And here is the evidence that you're skirting around the point. I asked you for once to consider Bitcoin against the universally accepted characteristics of a good store of value (as per the chart in my post above). You won't do that. You won't acknowledge any facet or characteristic of Bitcoin in this context and that to me lacks both objectivity and credibility.Clever people take leave of their senses. They lose touch with reality. They take a bag of hot air and say "it's limited in supply, it's not controlled by government, it can't be censored" therefore it's worth $20,000.
Yeah, against those characteristics, your 'toenails' rate just under tulips and your poetry (although his Dukeness is a fan so that might drive it up the rankings).My toenails meet all those criteria but no one wants to buy them.
Your premise is flawed from the outset. You are suggesting the whole time that there is nothing tangible at the heart of digital assets. As regards Bitcoin going to zero, I've acknowledged that as a possibility (although it's one that I think is unlikely as it stands today). I have acknowledged that Bitcoin could be superseded by another digital asset for these use cases (although that's not my thinking as it stands today).You are subject to a delusion. Lots of others are as well. Even when it does go to zero, you will deny it. You will say that it was a conspiracy of fiat money governments to control the people.
I haven't read Popular Delusions but I have read a couple of books on market psychology. ALL markets can be irrational. Bitcoin/Crypto won't be any different in that respect - but that doesn't mean to say that there isn't something tangible at the heart of it. Just as there was something tangible at the heart of the technology that led to the dot com boom. I've stepped out of this market on a number of occasions to account for what I perceived to be over-exuberance. I expect to do so another few times as this progresses.Read Popular Delusions and you will see yourself in it.
I made a simple statement - not this bigged up 'claim' that you speak of. As you were already told, it's a mut point as his Dukeness hasn't taken me up on the offer in any event.You are the one claiming someone can buy you pints with Bitcoin, not me!
Let me be very clear on this Firefly - now more than ever - the answer is NO!So if it's this easy and simple, shouldn't you let us know????
How? Here's an example of a Bitcoin Lightning payment.I'm just asking you a simple question that's all....you're saying someone could buy you pints with Bitcoin and I'm just asking how......
how can Brendan be so sure all these people that are delusional buying Bitcoin are going to stop and let it go to zero? How can you predict the behaviour of delusional people surely if they are delusional today they will be delusional tomorrow and the next day?
. I asked you for once to consider Bitcoin against the universally accepted characteristics of a good store of value (as per the chart in my post above). You won't do that. You won't acknowledge any facet or characteristic of Bitcoin in this context and that to me lacks credibility.
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