when do you think the credit crunch will end

And the piece of string I'm thinking of is how long???

There are soooo many factors affecting the current credit crisis, it's impossible to determine. Plus the global economy is fairly unstable at the moment, anything could happen to cause further problems.
 
Economic recovery?
USA - Early 2010
Most of the rest of the world - Late 2010
Ireland - 2012

But Who Knows !!
 
the worrying this is we have to see when the world economy hits the bottom, only then will things stabalise and growth will start to occur. so i'd be more concerned about when the whole mess bottoms out.
I'm not as hopeful as i was that Obama's election will have a great effect, but i would imagine once he takes over office there will be real hope over in america which hopefully should trickle around the world.
 
On avearge world recessions dont last very long at all. Since the great depression the average recession has lasted only between 6 to 16 months in duration in the US. According to the NBER the us went into contraction in December 2007, so we are already 13-14 months into this contraction today.

You will also find that the spread between the us fed funds rate and the libor rate has been reducinng since the fed has pumped massive amounts of money into the system.
So the severe credit crunch is easing and the commercial paper markets are open.

Dont forget that the stock markets will recover 6-12 months before the end of any recession. As Warren Buffett wrote recently (in the new york times) why he is busy buying us equities at the moment "If you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

I cant see a credit crunch lasting much longer when you realise how much money governments around the world have pumped into the system.
A tidal wave of cash is on its way.
 
Cormywormy said:
Post your views here to when you think the credit crunch will end.
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When Biffo and the Green clowns eventually head for the hills and follow the chief architect of the Celtic Disaster that was Bertie! When people like Dermot Manion / Bev Flynn / the FAS guy / the police at the airport and all the others who have their snouts in the trough realise that they never were "entitled" to basically rob the Joe Soap taxpayer.... then it will end for us!

Roy
 
onekeano said:
When Biffo and the Green clowns eventually head for the hills and follow the chief architect of the Celtic Disaster that was Bertie! When people like Dermot Manion / Bev Flynn / the FAS guy / the police at the airport and all the others who have their snouts in the trough realise that they never were "entitled" to basically rob the Joe Soap taxpayer.... then it will end for us!

Roy
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Or more pointedly
When the idiocy of the Irish people ceases in voting theese cretinous imbecilles back into office over and over again, in spite of overwhelmingly obvious astounding corruption and downright calculated thieving......... could be a very long recession.
 
Will we actually learn anything from this though? Will people realise that they shouldn't get greedy by buying up loads of different properties, pushing up prices for people trying to get on the housing ladder? Will they learn not to borrow too much from the banks to get these properties? Will the banks cop on and realise that loaning people up to seven or eight times their salary is pretty damn silly? Will banking practices be more closely scrutinised by the regulator in future? Will all this only have a short term effect on all the things we know were grossly over priced during the boom years? Will, will, will. So many more questions that could be asked. What do you all think?
 
kaplan said:
World sometime in 2011 - Ireland 2015
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My thoughts exactly but I fear for Ireland that it could be nearer 2020.

Ireland needs to reinvent itself with a plan that does no rely on being a cheap European technical/educated workforce or construction.
 
A good article about the year ahead by someone who was forecasting trillion dollar losses in 2007, when many US commentators were talking about billions:

"The financial headlines scream "de-leveraging" at every turn. Companies are cutting production, reducing staff and costs, suspending investment plans, raising equity and trying to sell assets to reduce debt. Consumer spending is falling sharply as individuals increase saving and reduce debt. Falling investment earnings and lower interest rates also adversely affect the income of savers reducing consumption. Increasing unemployment (as companies retrench) and lower investment (as global demand collapses) mean the chance for a quick recovery is receding."

http://www.rgemonitor.com/financemarkets-monitor/254949/2009_prospects__trench_warfare
 
smiley said:
A tidal wave of cash is on its way.
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With very high inflation snapping at it's heals. This will then help to erode the loans of those with huge borrowings, while those with savings will take the hit.
 
legs-akimbo said:
Or more pointedly
When the idiocy of the Irish people ceases in voting theese cretinous imbecilles back into office over and over again, in spite of overwhelmingly obvious astounding corruption and downright calculated thieving......... could be a very long recession.
Click to expand...


A very good post, I agree completely...How many more Tribunals is it going to take before the penny drops with some people?
 
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