Can someone please explain to me what the whole point of the strategy of BJ looking for an election?
News outlets keep saying it is his secret strategy. But none of them ever go on to explain for what reason.
So lets say he gets a majority meaning he doesn't need to DUP? What then? In what way does that benefit him? I genuinely don't understand.
The context of the situation at the moment is that UK politics is fractured, or rather the two main parties in the HoC (Con and Lab) can't state a coherent policy position that MPs can unite around and that will be voted through, one way or the other. Between all the tooing and froing over the last 3 years, positions on all sides have hardened. Including from those who want to stay in the EU (They cant bring themselves to vote for anything that would make the UK economically poorer or make them a rule taker). The most significant factor of course is the rise of Farage. His association with the leave campaign and the success of the Brexit party in the EU elections has changed the political landscape in the UK. The key thing to recognise is that, electorally, the enemy of the Tories is now Farage and not Corbyn.
Without the UK, the EU market is 450m people, on their doorstep. The bottom line is that the UK needs a deal, one way or the other. The EU recognises this. For example Switzerland pay ~€100m a year into the EU for the privilege of access and commits to being a rule taker. There is no way the EU can upset the apple cart and has no incentive to. The UK rhetoric pre-Johnson and now has not given the EU a reason to concede anything. There is no sign of any good faith from the UK so even if the backstop went, it may not be the end of the story for the EU. From the EUs perspective the backstop is already time limited. The backstop will not come into force until the time comes that there can be no agreeable alternative arrangements. AA is not necessarily technological, its a legal agreement, yet some of the ERG are saying that even if the backstop went, they wouldn't vote for the WA. BJ can see the same thing, thats why he voted for the deal the third time it was put. There is nothing that he can deliver that will satisfy the UK factions.
So in that context, BJ has come out of the blocks hard. The rhetoric has been dialled up and his Brexiteer cabinet are heading full steam ahead for Oct 31st. He knows there is no chance of the tory red lines being renegotiated in time for Oct 31st, which is his hard stop. This sits well with BJ and the gang because they have the talking points, the political spin but they dont have the time they need to work the detail through with the EU, at least not enough to make anything "saleable".
If he approaches Oct 31st without a deal there will surely be a no confidence vote in him and he will most likely lose. There are torys who have said that they will bring him down to avoid a no deal, so he will be forced into an election, Grieve et al. If an election is coming, he has two choices; call it himself or be forced in to it.
If he calls it himself, he has a chance of putting forward some sort of plan, he is a good debater and more of the same 'Vote Leave' rhetoric. If he is forced into the election he looks like (from the party faithfuls point of view) he wont be able to deliver. In that scenario the Torys have nobody else that can take over.
Thats where Farage fills the void. Now it doesn't matter if Farage and BJ have enough seats to cobble a majority in that scenario. What matters is that the Conservative party will be irreparably damaged. The DUP are largely irrelevant. They are holding the conservatives in power, they are largely the reason that the Backstop is being held up as they sticking point. It happens to be convenient for the tories. In an election scenario the Brexit Party will likely make the DUP votes redundant. The Brexit Party are not fundamentally opposed to the backstop but more so the jurisdiction of the ECJ.
If by some miracle he does get through Oct 31st. He is still goosed. He still needs the deal, he still has to address the same initial issues (Backstop, money, citizens rights), the merry-go-round starts again. He will have two and half years to the next GE in the UK (if he holds on). He will have border polls and all sorts to contend with in the mean time. And unless there is some glimmer of hope after leaving, he winds up with the same problem, Farage who will have a stronger pool of candidates because they will be out as MEPs and back on the campaign trail.
TLDR (!) In conclusion; BJ wants an election before he has to take responsibility for his failures. Farage is lying in wait. BJs only concern is the preservation of the conservative party. The EU have no reason (strong enough) to change their own fundamental rules any more than they have to.
All courses of action will be negative for Ireland. In the event of a hard Brexit the EU will require a frontier to be erected (as is right). However, politically, I think it is impossible for an Irish government to erect any kind of infrastructure resembling a border. Here is the fudge, I think Irish goods entering the continent will be subject to some sort of checks entering the mainland. In terms of movement of poeple, we are already outside Schengen. In terms of goods, the EU dont only really care that there is no open door into the single market, it is politically expedient for Ireland to solve the border question amicably. The North can continue to be managed bilaterally and the status quo can largely prevail i.e. with EU citizenship, freedom of movement and goods etc.