US Presidential Election 2024

the economy maybe a issue for harris .a lot of people are feeling it in their pockets ,
the perception is that it was far better under trump and this could give him the win
 
slightly off topic ,only saw the highlights so a question given that was a live broadcast with a split screen showing a close up of trump, i was looking at his right ear i couldn't see any mark/hole /nick left by a bullet ,that ear looked perfect to me ,am i right ?
kind of thing i thought trump would be showing off if it had been hit ?
 
There's been a few photos on Twitter, zooming in on that ... and yeah, no obvious signs of injury.

I thought it was always a bit dodgy that the info Trump released came from his former White House physician, who is now in some disgrace.

Ronny Jackson - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I don't know what more to tell ya
 
"He also gets in a zinger about the potential convergence of Irish and American politics following the US presidential election. “We’ll both have a Harris in charge, republicans in opposition and Orangemen who say no” – the final line accompanied by a cut to Donald Trump in all his tangerine glory."

Good review of a good joke Patrick Kielty made on friday late late show
 
Clever intervention by the Pope of Rome. He urges his flock to vote for the lesser of two evils (without naming which he thinks passes that test). There was a time when voting for an ardent right to abortion defender would be a mortal sin. The Pope is blowing a dog whistle to let them know they would get absolution on this occasion.
 
Looking at it from afar, it's hard to undertand how close it is still.

I understand the near 50/50 support as much as I undertand that SF/DUP still get 50% of the vote in NI.

It's like it has nothing to do with Country at all but dislike of one over the other. Policies don't seem to matter to too many.

The race/gender voting pattern by party is just mad
 
I made a nice sum out of backing Trump V Clinton, having been in some of the US back in 2016, it became very clear very quickly that the message we were getting from the East Coast media was not reflective of much of the broader US.

Firstly, 35%-40% of people will vote Republican or Democrat, regardless of the candidate. It's the same here (FF and FG have a constant support base), despite the madness, the Tories still got millions of votes in the UK. Inertia, habit, fear of change etc, pre-conceptions, for whatever reason, it happens. So it is that key 25% of undecided that is the main focus.

The US is actually a deeply conservative country so fear of change and a more liberal set of social policies is a major factor for a lot of voters. The fact that Trump is a serial adulterer is not relevant, it's what he represents, a more conservative agenda. Also the US is a very militaristic nation so the thoughts of not getting involved in overseas wars and not worrying if your son or daughter is going to get killed overseas will play in the minds of many voters.
 
Yes it's like here but to a far greater extent. The fringes of both parties are nuts and noisy.
 
You would really wonder what has changed for this to happen so close to election day? The Kamala bounce appears to have hit a definite celling which must be very worrying for her team. She's polling worse than Hilary was at this stage in the campaign.

Donald Trump overtakes Kamala Harris in seven-point swing nationally: Poll

It is the first time Trump has led a national poll since September 22, when a survey put him 1 point ahead of Harris.
www.newsweek.com

Donald Trump has surged ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in a dramatic seven-point swing, according to a new national poll.

The poll, conducted by ActiVote between October 3 and October 8, gives Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, a 1.2 percent lead over Harris, the Democratic candidate, with 50.6 percent of the vote to her 46.4 percent.

It marks a reversal of fortunes for Trump, who was trailing Harris by 5.4 points, 47.3 percent to her 52.7 percent, in a poll conducted by ActiVote between September 11 and September 17. The former president has seen a 6.6-point increase in his lead in just three weeks.

*Edit: Anyone listening to Newstalk just now (5.15pm) will have heard a reasonably plausible explanation for this change in the polls. Their US election correspondent just said "....if Kamala doesn't turn this around in the next ten days, she can kiss the election goodbye." (I'll include the link when available.)
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
The Donald back as marginal favourite as his understudy got a split decision win over Kamala's guy last night.
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I had a look at the bookies predictions for 2016 elections and they got that one wrong, trump was the outsider then. Most of the money is placed outside the US so probably don't have the feel on the ground in the US
 
joe sod said:
I had a look at the bookies predictions for 2016 elections and they got that one wrong, trump was the outsider then. Most of the money is placed outside the US so probably don't have the feel on the ground in the US
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Well, I am not sure "got it wrong" is quite the right term. The current position is below. Yes this is essentially a Brit assessment, which actually makes it a bit more objective than one dominated by US punters. This puts the chances of a win for The Donald at 58% and 42% for Karmela. No matter who wins, these may indeed be the "right" assessments.
The intriguing aspect is that this is against a backdrop where Karmela is maintaining her overall 3% national lead. Now we all know it is about the swing states so clearly the punters are digging a bit deeper and a further factor is that the Black population may be less inclined to actually get out and vote and I think they have made it harder for them this time round - stricter registration checks, there was a tiny pinch of truth in the election was stole theory (but even so nobody denies that on the overall popular vote The Donald is/was always behind). I am a great believer in the Efficient Market Hypothesis and so I take it as read that 58/42 is the current best assessment.
 
It would be supremely ironic if Michigan Muslims played a key role in putting Trump in the White House...

Harris started 'like a rocket' in Michigan. Now she's facing headwinds

A border crisis and the Gaza war have hit home in this key state for Democrats.
www.bbc.com
Meanwhile, Trump has won over some Arab-Americans by saying less, Mr Grossmann said. The former president has been vocal about his support for Israel, but has also promised to end the war, without providing specifics on how he would do so.
“Among this community, to some extent, being vague or unclear has been an advantage,” Mr Grossmann said.
In Hamtramck, a suburb of Detroit where about 60% of the population is Muslim, the city's first Arab mayor, a Democrat, has endorsed Trump.
“President Trump and I may not agree on everything, but I know he is a man of principles," Mayor Amer Ghalib told media.
“We asked multiple times that [Biden and Harris] should change course, but nothing happened."
 
Religious people are gullible by their nature.
 
Reactions: Leo
I'd say it's just a load of nonsense to draw attention to the fact that Harris and biden are not doing enough in their opinion. They are saying this just to draw attention to the issue so it generates media attention. Not in a million years would they vote for trump, sure trump is the biggest supporter of Israel and Netanyahu and many think that this whole escalation by Netanyahu is to damage the Harris campaign in order to get trump back in. Its hardly the case that michigan Muslims and Netanyahu are on the same page
 
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