US Presidential Election 2024

Speculation that Trump's wound was a shard from the protective glass screen rather than directly from a bullet... TBC
 
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out of curiosity
had trump been assassinated ,would nicky haley be next in line based on primary results ? or would they have to do it again ?
 
Your right Duke of marmalade looks like he has the election won.
The Democrats don't know how to counter/attack him now
 
out of curiosity
had trump been assassinated ,would nicky haley be next in line based on primary results ? or would they have to do it again ?
I think (not 100% certain) it would go to an 'open' convention, Trump's delegates would be released. Haley would have her delegates. And it is up to candidates to pitch at the convention for the free delegates.
 
Speculation that Trump's wound was a shard from the protective glass screen rather than directly from a bullet... TBC
Haven't heard any more about the glass theory so scratch that.

Update from the FBI via the BBC:

FBI Special Agent Kevin Rojek just said that, so far, there are no indications that Crooks was suffering from any mental health issues.

The FBI is currently focused on Crooks' motivations, particularly via his social media.
"We have not seen anything threatening," he added. "But it's still very early on."
The FBI is still "working to get access" to Crooks' phone. It is currently being sent to an FBI lab in Quantico, Virginia.
Recent communications have revealed nothing as to his motivations or a larger plan, according to the FBI officials on the call.


Donald Trump rally shooting: Donald Trump calls on Americans to 'stand united' after assassination attempt
 
Going to be very interesting to see what this does to the polls over the next couple of weeks. 538 has Trump 1.9% ahead prior to the shooting and he will get a bump from both that and from the Republican conference this week so not unreasonable to expect him to be 4-5% ahead in about 10 days time. That's big and that will be the gap that Biden needs to close. Given his "gaffs" and the overall focus on every little slip he makes, hard to see him closing that enough.

But this is Trump and it's also possible he will go so OTT that he damages himself and who knows what else will happen. ?
 
Anyone who thinks Trump is the worst US President ever really needs to read up on US Presidents. He's certainly a loathsome person but he hasn't committed Genocide like Andrew Jackson did when he signed the Indian Removal Act.

Then there's James Polk, who started the Mexican American war, their first colonial war which was fought explicitly to allow slavery to be used by White Protestant American settlers in Mexican lands. In fact one of the primary objectives of the Indian Removal Act was to allow the spread of slavery into those areas of the South (Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, North Carolina etc).

In modern times Nixon has to give Trump a run for the title. The difference now is how politicised the Fundamentalist Christians are and how big the liberal opposition is.
 
You may not be saying that in 2028. In his first term he was somewhat constrained by his administration.
He tried to steal the election by ordering VP Pence not to certify the results. This would have thrown it into the Congress where Republicans could have re-elected him.
No evidence has been produced to justify any of the claims Trump or his lawyers made about the election results not being valid.
He then incited a mob to storm the Capitol, leading to bloodshed.

He has a Supreme Court ruling which creates enough wiggle room for him to commit any crimes, order the Justice Department to abuse its powers against his political enemies and cite Presidential immunity and tie it up in the courts ad infinitum. The justice system still hasn't caught up with the crimes and felonies he committed last time round.
A Supreme Court he appointed several members to, in one case because Republicans just refused to appoint a new justice during Obama's final year. No reason, just because they could.

Former members of his administration already have a plan in place, Project 2025, to ensure next time round there will be no people like Pence in his way, just Trump loyalists. It is a full scale assault on the structure of US democracy and its system of checks and balances.

Nixon resigned rather than put the US through all of that, the Republican party would not have stood with him.
Trump now runs the Republican party as he wishes.

On the international front, Trump released 5000 Afghan fighters, ensuring the country was a mess when Biden came to office. The US either had to leave or send in large forces to restore order. He withheld aid to Ukraine because they would not go along with Trump's conspiracy theory and dig up dirt on the Bidens. His election would give carte blanche to Putin to de-stabilise NATO in Europe without fear of US involvement, and for Israel to annex the Gaza strip.
 
I agree.
The Supreme Court has rules against him on the issue of Presidential immunity. There is a separation of powers in the US so there's still a limit to what he can do unless he get the Senate and Congress as well.
A Supreme Court he appointed several members to, in one case because Republicans just refused to appoint a new justice during Obama's final year. No reason, just because they could.
The reason Trump got to stuff the Supreme Court is that Ruth Bader Ginsburg refused to retire, even when Obama met her and asked her to retire. Her legacy is the repeal of Row V Wade. Her hubris destroyed her legacy.

I agree. He's aa despicable person but I don't think he's the worse President ever.
Nixon resigned rather than put the US through all of that, the Republican party would not have stood with him.
Trump now runs the Republican party as he wishes.
Yes, that's a reflection of the Republican Party.
On the international front, Trump released 5000 Afghan fighters, ensuring the country was a mess when Biden came to office. The US either had to leave or send in large forces to restore order.
They were leaving anyway.
He withheld aid to Ukraine because they would not go along with Trump's conspiracy theory and dig up dirt on the Bidens.
Yes, that had major geopolitical repercussions.
His election would give carte blanche to Putin to de-stabilise NATO in Europe without fear of US involvement,
As did that.
and for Israel to annex the Gaza strip.
Completely irrelevant on a global scale and not what actually happened.

The aforementioned President Polk and Andrew Jackson, used the nebulous term "Manifest Destiny" (coined by an Irish American called John L O'Sullivan) to justify war , genocide and slavery. "Make America great again" is only trotting after it in terms of divisiveness and the harm it can do.
America has been isolationist before. It's fought many colonial wars in the last 140 years and, just like every other country, acts in it's own interests.
 
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I'm talking about a possible Trump 2nd term. Not 2016-2020, but 2024-28 also.
The Supreme Court created enough uncertainty around the scope of Presidential immunity that any attempt to charge Trump with anything, he will cite Presidential immunity and tie up the case in the courts for years.
Republican control of the Senate and House is a strong possibility, even without that, there will be enough Republicans to block any attempts to impeach him, no matter what he does, no matter how legitimate the impeachment cause. He will use the full powers of the Presidency, and then some, and will ignore attempts to stop him or tie them up in the courts, and weaponise the Justice Dept and IRS against his opponents.
When he said "LOCK HER UP" about Hilary Clinton last time round he meant it. He was only stopped because there were enough people still doing their duty. Next time round they won't be there. He will bring federal cases against his opponents, brought by Trump loyalists.

His new administration will mean a full scale assault on the separation of powers, to make Trump a dictator effectively.
It is documented under Project 2025, prepared by members of Trump's previous administration, and is the plan for his next one.

Trump's re-election would give Putin the signal he doesn't have to worry about US getting involved in Eastern Europe. It will signal to Israel they can do whatever they want in Palestine, up to and including annexing territory, and Trump will be on board with it. That will not be good for the stability of the region.
 
I agree, it's an appalling prospect. I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm simply suggesting that there have been worse American Presidents.
Trump's re-election would give Putin the signal he doesn't have to worry about US getting involved in Eastern Europe.
And Europe will have to put on its big boy pants and defend itself. I don't think we (Ireland) actually own a pair of big boy pants.
It will signal to Israel they can do whatever they want in Palestine, up to and including annexing territory, and Trump will be on board with it. That will not be good for the stability of the region.
The attempt to run a gas pipeline to Europe from the Gulf and the Arab Spring did far more harm, killed far more people and destabilised the region far more than anything Israel does in Gaza or the West Bank (because no Arab country actually cares what happens to the Palestinian Arabs). Both of those things were pre-Trump.
 
Not really sure why that is the standard under discussion though or where that came from.
Several of the ones you listed are from the 19th century.
He is the worst in modern times, and his story is not over yet, in a second term it is probable the consequences of his flaws will be more significant.

Comparisons with Nixon are very debatable, all the indications are that Trump would have brazened out Watergate, how he handled Afghanistan comparable with how Nixon handled Vietnam, leaving a mess, no regard for endangering US soldiers or civilians of that country, or the fate of erstwhile US allies.
Nixon resigned after Watergate, after losing a close questionable election to JFK, he did not challenge it, out of concern damage it would do.

Trump has shown in trying to steal the election that American democracy itself is under threat.
Nixon's conduct seems quaint in comparison.

Even today, a Trump appointed judge in Florida threw out the classified documents case, without merit. Now the prosecutor has to start the process to replace the judge. All this runs down the clock to any consequences to Trump for conduct from his last Presidential term, and if he is re-elected, he will kill the case.
 
He’s definitely the worst in my lifetime and probably the worst in modern times. The point I was making is that America has had some really awful presidents who have done some truly awful things and the country has survived.
 
He’s definitely the worst in my lifetime and probably the worst in modern times. The point I was making is that America has had some really awful presidents who have done some truly awful things and the country has survived.
I hope you are right re: the country's ability to survive.
I take your point they have had some really awful presidents but my concern is that the awful things they did represented a different threat than Trump did to American democracy and those awful presidents were limited by the scope of the government of the time. There was the Civil War which nearly destroyed the country as we know it but that was the result of the wider political situation of the time rather than something that can be pinned on one President.
 

Plenty of US presidents have threatened US democracy over the years. Kennedy is the obvious one in 1960, nearly 700 people in Illinois alone were charged with various voter fraud allegations after the election and all bar 3 were acquitted by a Democratic appointed judge and a crony of Mayor Daley. Ironically, Kennedy would still have won had he lost the state, which in reality, had Daley not stuffed some of the ballot boxes, he probably did.

Every President has made a mess of something along the way.

Trump is an old man and the US will survive him. The big impact he will have is on judicial appointments and that could have longer term consequences and a move to a more conservative US. However, the US has always been divided, you could argue the War of Independence was a Civil War, there was the actual Civil War, Jim Crow, 1960s counter culture, Civil Rights, the list goes on.

It is scary though, not that long ago I was in the viewing Gallery of the House of Representatives, I didn't realise how deep into the building it actually was and how far the Jan 6th nutters got in.
 
What previous presidents threatened democracy by inciting a mob to storm the Capitol?
What previous president ordered his VP not to certify the results, based on fabricated lies? If Pence hadn't done his duty, a vote along party lines in Congress would have stolen the election for Trump.
That's a lot more than a 'mess'.

And his judicial appointments, and the weak \ vague nature of their ruling on Presidential immunity, multiplies the potential damage such a President can do.

What's to stop Trump in 2028 ordering his VP Vance not to certify the election based on the same lies, even though it was a legitimate democratic victory ... and a party vote in Congress giving the Presidency to Vance, even though he lost the election?
Trump this time round picked a stooge VP who will do his bidding. He has been increasing his control of the Republican party in Congress.
 
  • What previous President got his cronies to stuff the ballot boxes- Kennedy
  • What previous President deliberately stalled on peace negotiations to influence an election result and probably cost the lives of American soldiers as a result- Nixon
  • What President lied through his teeth to justify a war-Bush 1, LBJ (Gulf of Tonkin)
  • What previous President probably did a deal to halt the release of hostages to ensure his opponent did not get a late election bounce- Reagan
  • What previous President went live on national TV and lied through his teeth to the American people- Clinton, probably Nixon, LBJ, the list goes on. And they all are lying to ensure re-election or their legacy
Even Obama once got an "award" for the lie of the year.

Trump is by far the worst of the lot, no arguement with that. But he is not the first who jeopardised US democracy and he won't be the last