US Presidential Election 2024

Duke of Marmalade said:

Whatever way you look at it this is the most divisive election in my memory and I follow closely here of course, my native NI, UK in general the US and even France.
Ni being the exception to all analysis the notable thing about these other healthy democracies is the voters accept the result. Sure I was disappointed when Heath beat Wilson or when Bush beat Gore. But for the first time I sense that US democracy will fail this "accept the result" test. Well yes Trump garbage didn't accept the 2020 result and ceratinly won't accept him losing this time. But if he wins there is going to be a very disgruntled majority (Kamala well odds on to win popular vote) of US voters.
It's not Civil War stuff or anywhere near it but it seems that, whatever administration takes over, half the populace will be totally resentful of it.

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It will be one thing to be disgruntled as such if Trump actually wins on votes, even by electoral college. By rights he should be in prison not contesting elections for his conduct last time out.

It will be another reaction entirely if he succeeds where he failed last time and actually subverts the electoral college vote even though Harris (like Biden last time) wins it fair and square.

I don't think half the populace will be totally resentful if Harris legit wins in that way. I think there will be a vocal minority perhaps larger than 2020 but nowhere near half the populace.

@odyssey06 You're talking there of the Garbage (lets say half of those supporting Trump/Musk) and you are right they are always missing a few gruntles no matter who wins.

odyssey06 said:

There is so much noise from polls, betting... my instinct is that Harris will win, and may even win comfortably.

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I think you may be right. The Trump/Musk momentum has halted in the betting markets.

And another thing. I think Trump driving a garbage truck is a mistake (for him). For sure his Garbage supporters will lap it up. But everybody else will see that there is a huge difference between an old man being careless and the very disgusting joke.

Duke of Marmalade said:

And another thing. I think Trump driving a garbage truck is a mistake (for him). For sure his Garbage supporters will lap it up. But everybody else will see that there is a huge difference between an old man being careless and the very disgusting joke.

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I actually thought that was one of his better stunts, Trump dressed in a high viz vest in a garbage truck makes him connect with the blue collar worker, very similar to the stuff boris johnson used to do, that was like the trump of 2016 more than anything.

I think he will lose the election, only this time D.C. and elsewhere will be ready for his mafiosi, if they materialize at all.

There will be enough indictments to keep him busy for the rest of his natural.

Hopefully, the GOP will engage in essential introspection.

I could be entirely mistaken, of course, but I felt at the time that Trump was wrong-footed when Biden stepped aside in July.

In a sense, he is still competing with Biden. He can't cope with Harris. He can't make anything stick. His insults, loathsome as they are, are disjointed and random - her name, her colour, her gender and absurdly, her IQ.

He refused further debates after she trashed him in September, especially with the increasing good news on the US economy.

Although excessive price anxiety is expressed, consumer behaviour is suggesting the opposite due to rising wages. The US economy is now in very good shape.

The only reason the DOW is down, is due to nervousness that Trump might win and enact his tariffs.

Trump's fall back is flogging immigration for all it's worth. But his ameliorating "plans" are non-nonsensical and probably, unworkable.

I am convinced that were Trump to kill an adversary in cold blood, some servile Republicans would act as apologists and staunch "Trumpists" would still vote for him, reassured that they are voting for a victimized Republican who is good on the economy.

I might have to eat humble pie on all this but we can only hope that the US sees sense again!