US Presidential Election 2024

Duke of Marmalade said:
Not looking good. 61%/39%.View attachment 9537
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Was reading that the betting markets might not be true either as they have been swayed by very large bets from a few individuals with deep pockets. The suspicion is that very rich trump supporters like Elon musk etc are trying to frame the narrative that trump is unbeatable and actually pointing to the betting odds. Thereby hoping that will cause people that are not for trump to not vote since its a waste of time as trump election is a foregone conclusion
 
Trump is playing to half empty rallies. Harris is in demand.

There's record numbers early voting \ postal voting, surge in new voter registrations - from demographics that tend to historically favour Democrats. High turnout usually favours Democrats and that points to that also.

I would put more weight on those than on betting and polls.

Trump-Harris Early Voting Trends: GOP Cuts Into Democratic Advantage

Almost 13 million voters have cast their ballots so far.
www.forbes.com
 
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Maybe, but it’s more usually the opposite, favourites want to play down their chances to avoid complacency.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Maybe, but it’s more usually the opposite, favourites want to play down their chances to avoid complacency.
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We're talking about Trump here. The man who says that next time around you won't even need to vote for him to win!
It's clear some very wealthy individuals are heavily invested in a Trump win and are possibly starting to get concerned. I mean giving a million dollars a day to someone who registers to vote for Trump smacks of panic!
 
Watch the documentary "An American Bombing, the road to April 19th". There is a thread from the Slave owning Founding Fathers to the creation of Texas as the first country in the world set up specifically so that the white Anglo-Saxon protestant population could own slaves, to the Civil War, to the KKK, Jim Crow laws, Nativism, the American German Bund and Fascism in the US, right through to the Unite the Right marches and Charlottesville and the replacement theory racist nutters. The people voting for Trump are not an aberration, they are a continuum, an expression of an American identity that has always existed and always will.

When Thomas Jefferson wrote that "all men are created equal" he meant white Anglo-Saxon protestant men. Not women, not blacks, not Jews and not Catholics. It is how broadly and generously that sentence should be interpreted that is at the heart of the division in America, a division which, since the 9th of April 1865, has been expressed nationally only in political terms.

This election is the latest round in that conflict. It is an existential conflict for the heart of the country and it won't be ending any time soon.
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
Maybe, but it’s more usually the opposite, favourites want to play down their chances to avoid complacency.
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You know more about betting than me, but is it possible that these rich trump guys are able to place big bets creating favourable odds for trump then reverse those in the hours before the election or lay off their bets when the media attention has moved off betting odds and onto the election proper?
 
Don't think so, the liquidity wouldn't be there.
Below is a real puzzle to me. The Donald is 8/15 with PaddyPower to win i.e. 65.2% but the Republican Party is only 4/7 i.e. 63.6%. (Kamala and the DP have the same odds of 6/4).
Now this is not a mistake. For some reason PP thinks there is a 1.6% chance that The Donald will win but will not be representing the GOP. Answers on a postcard please.
 
He may liquidate the party after he wins and burn down the Bundestag.
 
Purple said:
He may liquidate the party after he wins and burn down the Bundestag.
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He's already pretty much repudiated the founding rationale of the Republican Party by basically saying Lincoln should have appeased the South over slavery. It would be more honest at this stage to call it is the Trump or MAGA party. Nothing Republican about it anymore on any level.
 
They have had 4 years to prepare for this. What I am wondering is, if they lose at the ballot box, how will they react this time around? I'm sure there is a plan for all eventualities. We can see already in play an attempt to "win" the election before November 5th so no doubt there is a plan on how to "win" after the votes are cast as well. One thing is for sure, he won't be making any phone call during the night to concede if the states go against him.
 
Kamala Harris is campaigning in Texas... this is either a really good or bad sign.

Texas is usually a Republican state, not a swing state.

So either Harris has given up on the usual swing states and is desperately trying to flip Texas for the win, maybe boost Democrat Senate chanes
Or
Harris has internal data showing swing states are in the bag and is now going for landslide, and supporting other Democratic candidates.
 
Interesting interview in the New York Times with retired General John Kelly, former Trump Whitehouse Chief of Staff. Kelly says that Trump is a fascist and will rule as a dictator.
Trump Spokesman Steven Cheung responded by saying that Kelly had "beclowned himself". (That's my new favourite word)
 
I've seen people argue that, oh Trump wasn't out of control in his first term... ignoring that the 'responsible adults' like Kelly etc were keeping him in check and are revealing this information now. His first term is not in any way a guide to his second.
 
There is a big difference between the 2016 trump and today's incarnation, then he was much fresher looking, was sharp and funny. He was also a new phenomenon.
Now he looks old and jaded, his face looks ridiculous with that orange makeup and his hair is thinning , he could carry it off as a slightly younger man but not now. He is not as funny and sharp as he was in 2016 and is much more menacing. Also the international backdrop with a European war and trump supporting the Russian dictator is a very bad look
 
And he'll probably still win. That shows how crazy the left is in America. The god-bothering gun-toting nutters will always vote for him but that's only 25% or so of the population. When the people in the centre see him and the bill of goods he's selling and hold their noses and still vote for him then the opposition really have to take a long hard look at the sort of crazy nonsense that they've allowed to be co-opted into their brand.
 
A few months ago I would have thought the race was Kamala's to lose - and that Trump wouldn't be able to pivot his aim from Biden or be capable of handling her youth, energy and perceived freshness - not to mention her gender/ethnicity etc.

With less than two weeks to go and following a few below-par performances - her ratings are more or less static if not falling. She seems to be depending on big celebs - Taylor, Bruce, Beyonce, Eminem etc - not to mention most of Hollywood's elite to bolster her numbers in the final days..

Not sure if that'll work with middle America...but anything can happen over the next week. (Expect the Hitler/Fascist thing to be ramped up in spades.)

This discussion from CNBC yesterday is one of many saying more or less the same thing.

Kamala Harris isn't connecting to the persuadable voters, says pollster Frank Luntz

Pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss state of the 2024 election, VP Kamala Harris' town hall, whether undecided voters...
www.youtube.com
 
I'm not convinced by these discussions.

US reportage holds Harris to a higher standard than Trump.
 
Exactly that. When he’s perceived as the lesser of two evils, you really need to ask why.
 
 
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