Trump or Biden, who will win

I can't upload files here so I have opened a new thread in Shooting the Breeze where I upload my Excel model.
 
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I think its going to flip again. I'm calling Nevada and Pennsylvannia for Trump.
Michigan for Biden
 
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WolfeTone said:
I think its going to flip again. I'm calling Nevada and Pennsylvannia for Trump.
Michigan for Biden
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Michigan is swinging to Biden and Wisconsin is very much his to lose.
Why are you calling Nevada for Trump? Biden is well ahead in Washoe and Clark counties which are the most are by far the most populous in the State.
Why Pennsylvania for Trump? The area around Pittsburgh and Philadelphia haven't been fully counted yet (around 75% of votes counted) and they are the big population centres and are strongly Democrat.
 
Purple said:
Why are you calling Nevada for Trump? Biden is well ahead in Washoe and Clark counties which are the most are by far the most populous in the State.
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I agree. But the spread is roughly Biden 53% Trump 47 % of the remaining votes. Meaning that Biden will gain, I estimate some 14,000 votes from those two counties. Putting him roughly 6,000 ahead.

The rest of the counties are far less populous but the spread is roughly 60% + / 30%- in Trumps favour. Meaning somewhere like Elko (77%/20%)with only 85% vote in Trump stands to take 3:1 of the remaining 6,000 or so votes, or gain back 2,000 . Add in Douglas, Nye, Lyon, Churchill you can see how those votes start to add up.

Could be a toss of a coin in Nevada, but I think Trump will pip it.
 
Purple said:
Why Pennsylvania for Trump? The area around Pittsburgh and Philadelphia haven't been fully counted yet (around 75% of votes counted) and they are the big population centres and are strongly Democrat.
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I agree. But look at, Lancaster, York, Adams, Franklin - less populous but Trump is picking up 2:1 a minimum, even 3:1.
Its just too much of a clawback for Biden from where he is now.
 
WolfeTone said:
I agree. But look at, Lancaster, York, Adams, Franklin - less populous but Trump is picking up 2:1 a minimum, even 3:1.
Its just too much of a clawback for Biden from where he is now.
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York is now fully counted. The Fox map is great for the county by county vote as it shows what percentage is left to count.
 
According to:

Joe Biden ‘honoured and humbled’ as he is declared winner of US presidential election

Harris becomes first woman elected vice president; Trump accuses Biden of ‘rushing to falsely pose as the winner’
www.irishtimes.com

Former vice-president Joe Biden has been declared the winner of the US presidential election after clinching the key battle-ground state of Pennsylvania, securing the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the presidency.

Who declared him the winner? I haven't seen any Returning Officers like there are at election counts in Ireland.

It's a bit hypocritical of Trump, but is he correct?

“The simple fact is this election is far from over. Joe Biden has not been certified as the winner of any states, let alone any of the highly contested states headed for mandatory recounts, or states where our campaign has valid and legitimate legal challenges that could determine the ultimate victor,” he said in the statement.
 
The meeja of course, just like they try legal matters in the court of public opinion in the USA, elections and election results attract ads with headlines like "YOU HEARD (or SAW) IT HERE FIRST!!!" This time though I suspect and hope it won't be fake news.
 
RTE says

CNN, NBC News and CBS News called the race in Mr Biden's favour just before 4.30pm as an insurmountable lead in Pennsylvania took the 77-year-old over the top in the state-by-state count that decides the presidency.
 
None of the counts are complete e.g. Utah 88% in, Alaska 47% in, New York 81% in. I guess there isn't a formal result until all votes are counted. It is always thus and it is historically legitimate for someone to claim victory if that is the position on counts so far. I don't know whether Dubya claimed victory in 2000.
 
It's official now.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin TD has released a statement offering his congratulations to Joe Biden.

"On behalf of the Government and the people of Ireland, I offer warmest congratulations to Joe Biden on his election as the 46th President of the United States. Ireland takes pride in Joe Biden’s election, just as we are proud of all the generations of Irish women and Irish men and their ancestors whose toil and genius have enriched the diversity that powers America.
 
Voter fraud allegations starting to ramp up, its not just a solo Trump diatribe. Corey Lewandowski (political campaigner for Trump) has cited an actual example of a deceased woman having her vote cast through the mail-in, providing a name, death of death etc.
Rudy Guilliani claims to have witnesses from count centre that will testify to irregularities, and Senator Jim Jordan is also claiming foul practices with regard being denied oversight of vote count.
 
@WolfeTone but isn't the bigger issue the security of the postal service, whats to stop votes for Trump "accidently" getting lost. Afterall there is no check to ensure that all of the ballots sent out are returned whereas every ballot in a polling booth is accounted for one for one. It just stretches credibility that Trump got almost 50% of the total vote but only 10% of all the mail in votes were for Trump and 90% for Biden, maybe 70/30 or 60/40 Biden Trump ratio would be believable. Yes Trump told people to vote in person but is it believable that 90% of them obeyed him and only 10% mailed in their ballots.
 
joe sod said:
It just stretches credibility that Trump got almost 50% of the total vote but only 10% of all the mail in votes
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That's an interesting point. Personally I would have considered Trumps speeches as nothing but a typical diatribe. But if there are genuine concerns, supported with actual evidence, then its need to be checked.
 

It's not just credible... It was absolutely predicted. And the GOP knew it as well which is why they looked to hold off the counting of postal votes until after the physical votes. Exactly so they could try to spin this narrative you're buying into.

Let's see what Rudy can actually bring to court... If he actually does bring anything. Press conferences are one thing, actual evidence something else
 
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