Trump or Biden, who will win

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cremeegg

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The major trends at the moment in the US election seem to me to be Trumps declining support among the old, due presumably to his failures with Covid, and his low level of support among women.

By contrast his support among high school educated blue collar whites seems to have held up, and even expanded among adjacent white demographics, middle class better educated office workers.

The law and order issue does not seem to have developed for Trump. I had expected the suburbans afraid of riots thing might have flourished, but it seems to have fizzled. BLM supporters were never going to support Trump.

While the demographic showing an increase in support for Trump is spread across the country, the elder vote is key in a number of key states, Florida and Arizona especially.

If this election throws up a surprise that might be an overwhelming Biden victory.
 
Any bet that wins is a good bet - ask any betting office visitor. Biden at 1/2 at this moment is good value, I'm on it.
 
cremeegg said:
Less than a week to go and its neck and neck.

Paddy power have Clinton at 1/3 and Trump at 5/2. As I understand it that means they think her 7.5 times more likely to win. If we assume that either one or the other must win, that means that the bookies are taking 16 and 2/3 % for themselves. In my own opinion it is much closer than that, but unless Trump is decisively defeated, this is a bad election for us all.
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a good post by cremeegg on the 2016 election, trump at worse odds then than he is now just shows you betting odds have a poor record in predicting actual results.
 
joe sod said:
trump at worse odds then than he is now just shows you betting odds have a poor record in predicting actual results.
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Yes, and Bidens lead in some swing States, while showing him to be clear front-runner, is less than the lead Clinton had.

It's a hard one to call. My gut feeling is that Trump wouldnt be hard-pressed to call it a day and has one eye on a lucrative book tour.
On the other hand, it's hard to see from my perspective how Biden is doing anything to get detached Dem voters believing in establishment politics again.

Overall, its a continuing sorry, sad state of affairs.
 
joe sod said:
a good post by cremeegg on the 2016 election, trump at worse odds then than he is now just shows you betting odds have a poor record in predicting actual results.
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Good post in its correct intuition that The Donald had a better chance than thought. I remember being impressed at the time.
However, technically a bit wanting. The bookies' mark-up is 3.6%. 1/3 is 2.6 times more likely that 5/2 not 7.5 times.*

Interesting;y PP go 4/9 Joe, 15/8 The Donald suggesting Joe is twice more likely to win. Not a lot different from Crooked Hillary 4 years ago. Somehow I think cremeegg's intuition will be right again, Joe will win decisively.

The New York Times poll in 2016 came closest to predicting the outcome. It had a 3.1% lead for Clinton, the actual result was 2.1%, just 1% wrong. This belies the conventional wisdom that the polls got it wildly wrong in 2016. Today the NYT is giving Joe a 9% lead. The Donald got lucky in a few swing states in 2016 so as to pull off the gerrymander, it will take more than luck this time.

* Technical note: Imagine 28 runnings of the 2016 election. 1/3 would mean Hillary would win 21 of them. 5/2 would mean Trump would win 8 of them. That is 29 wins in all meaning the bookies' mark-up is 1/29. Hilary has 21/8 times more chances of a win than Trump.
 
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WolfeTone said:
Yes, and Bidens lead in some swing States, while showing him to be clear front-runner, is less than the lead Clinton had.

It's a hard one to call. My gut feeling is that Trump wouldnt be hard-pressed to call it a day and has one eye on a lucrative book tour.
On the other hand, it's hard to see from my perspective how Biden is doing anything to get detached Dem voters believing in establishment politics again.

Overall, its a continuing sorry, sad state of affairs.
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A colouring book tour presumably?
 
I cast my ballot three weeks ago or so. I think Biden will win. In the low 300s EC votes.
 
Drakon said:
I cast my ballot three weeks ago or so. I think Biden will win. In the low 300s EC votes.
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@Drakon I don't know if you are a betting guy but Betfair have really weird betting on Biden's EC votes. They split the market into bands of 30. The favourite band is 330-359 which they rate a 18% chance. Second favourite is 240-269 (a Trump win) at 13%, and here's the weird bit 270-299 is in between and so one might expect an in between chance but no, it is rated only a 9% chance.
They seem to be saying that either there will be a last minute decisive swing to Trump or there won't be, but less chance of a balanced outcome.
 
I know the polls and everything else is against trump this time but he doesn't seem like a man that is going to lose, he has incredible energy in comparison to Biden . If it was any other candidate and the polls were showing them losing like trump is the confidence and campaigning would be deflated but not trump. What ever you think of his policies and personality he is still an incredible politician.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
@Drakon I don't know if you are a betting guy but Betfair have really weird betting on Biden's EC votes.
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Gee-gees, golf and GAA. Very little outside of those three.

I would say the bands anomaly is down to the particular ECs of the swing states. Florida is 29, that’s an entire band. Whereas most of the other swing states are around a dozen each (IIRC?). I’ll have a closer look at BetFair.
 
Yeah, lots of anomalies in the EC markets.
€770k matched on Trump’s ECs whereas €280k matched on Biden’s.
 
Drakon said:
Gee-gees, golf and GAA. Very little outside of those three.

I would say the bands anomaly is down to the particular ECs of the swing states. Florida is 29, that’s an entire band. Whereas most of the other swing states are around a dozen each (IIRC?). I’ll have a closer look at BetFair.
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You understand Betfair, that's what I was getting at. You're right, it must be the Florida factor throwing up apparent anomalies.
I am going to cobble together an Excel model to check for consistency between the three markets: Overall Winner, EC votes and individual States. I will report on my findings.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
You understand Betfair, that's what I was getting at. You're right, it must be the Florida factor throwing up apparent anomalies.
I am going to cobble together an Excel model to check for consistency between the three markets: Overall Winner, EC votes and individual States. I will report on my findings.
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Take a look at 538 (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/). They input all the polls and then run multiple scenarios. They have a state by state tracker.

You can see there that a number of states are likely blue but not outsde realm of possibility of Trump win (Arizona, NC, Florida NH) - approx 70 EC votes. On the flip side, there are a number of leaning red states which could easily flip blue (Iowa, Ohio, Texas) - approx 60. So easy to see a 130 swing if there was a last minute switch to one side or the other. But I would imagine what the Betfair market is reflecting is that there would be some correlation i.e. they may all break one way or the other
 
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