My problem with that is that if The Donald wins I will be depressed enuff. Don't want to rub salt in the wounds by losing money tooAny bet that wins is a good bet - ask any betting office visitor. Biden at 1/2 at this moment is good value, I'm on it.
a good post by cremeegg on the 2016 election, trump at worse odds then than he is now just shows you betting odds have a poor record in predicting actual results.Less than a week to go and its neck and neck.
Paddy power have Clinton at 1/3 and Trump at 5/2. As I understand it that means they think her 7.5 times more likely to win. If we assume that either one or the other must win, that means that the bookies are taking 16 and 2/3 % for themselves. In my own opinion it is much closer than that, but unless Trump is decisively defeated, this is a bad election for us all.
trump at worse odds then than he is now just shows you betting odds have a poor record in predicting actual results.
Good post in its correct intuition that The Donald had a better chance than thought. I remember being impressed at the time.a good post by cremeegg on the 2016 election, trump at worse odds then than he is now just shows you betting odds have a poor record in predicting actual results.
A colouring book tour presumably?Yes, and Bidens lead in some swing States, while showing him to be clear front-runner, is less than the lead Clinton had.
It's a hard one to call. My gut feeling is that Trump wouldnt be hard-pressed to call it a day and has one eye on a lucrative book tour.
On the other hand, it's hard to see from my perspective how Biden is doing anything to get detached Dem voters believing in establishment politics again.
Overall, its a continuing sorry, sad state of affairs.
He wouldn't be able to stay inside the lines. Another tantrum. Would make a good live show.A colouring book tour presumably?
Trump currently 2/1 on Betfair. I have seen 2/1 shots win.
A value bet and a good bet are two entirely different things.Any bet that wins is a good bet - ask any betting office visitor. Biden at 1/2 at this moment is good value, I'm on it.
The Donald got lucky in a few swing states in 2016 so as to pull off the gerrymander, it will take more than luck this time.
@Drakon I don't know if you are a betting guy but Betfair have really weird betting on Biden's EC votes. They split the market into bands of 30. The favourite band is 330-359 which they rate a 18% chance. Second favourite is 240-269 (a Trump win) at 13%, and here's the weird bit 270-299 is in between and so one might expect an in between chance but no, it is rated only a 9% chance.I cast my ballot three weeks ago or so. I think Biden will win. In the low 300s EC votes.
Gee-gees, golf and GAA. Very little outside of those three.@Drakon I don't know if you are a betting guy but Betfair have really weird betting on Biden's EC votes.
You understand Betfair, that's what I was getting at. You're right, it must be the Florida factor throwing up apparent anomalies.Gee-gees, golf and GAA. Very little outside of those three.
I would say the bands anomaly is down to the particular ECs of the swing states. Florida is 29, that’s an entire band. Whereas most of the other swing states are around a dozen each (IIRC?). I’ll have a closer look at BetFair.
You understand Betfair, that's what I was getting at. You're right, it must be the Florida factor throwing up apparent anomalies.
I am going to cobble together an Excel model to check for consistency between the three markets: Overall Winner, EC votes and individual States. I will report on my findings.
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?