Time to buy in

Status
Not open for further replies.
Sarenco said:
I think it's interesting that current global market levels (MSCI World), even after the recent drop, are still ~24% higher than the market close on 24 December 2018.
Click to expand...

And I am sure that if you look back at the comments at the time, many analysts were saying that the market was overvalued.

Brendan
 
Sarenco said:
I think it's interesting that current global market levels (MSCI World), even after the recent drop, are still ~24% higher than the market close on 24 December 2018.
Click to expand...
I'm tempted to report your post for taking the thread off topic. There's no place for common sense and fact based observations here. Maybe aim for a sense of urgency and panic in your posts. It'd help to mention a few gambling wins.
 
I also think it's interesting that the EMU Government Bond Index rose by 4% over the last 7 days, suggesting that it still makes sense to diversify across the two major asset classes to moderate volatility within a portfolio.
 
Sarenco said:
I think it's interesting that current global market levels (MSCI World), even after the recent drop, are still ~24% higher than the market close on 24 December 2018.
Click to expand...

yes but talk about cherry picking data to suit an agenda, we all know that 24 December 2018 was the exact trough of the last big sell off, the worst December in financial history. Just to add context though the MSCI world index is at the same level now as it was on 26 August 2019, 1 April 2019, 1 Oct 2018, 25 Dec 2017. In other words its been oscillating around the current level for the last 2 years with a severe sell off in December 2018 followed by an equally rapid recovery.
 
@joe sod

The statistic simply shows how strongly the markets recovered after the last correction.

But you’re right - I do have an agenda. I want to demonstrate how futile it is to try and time the market.

The idea that returns oscillate around some specific level demonstrates a complete misunderstanding of how markets work.
 
@Sunny just to challenge your advice and I am a bit concerned to be frank which is why I am looking for advice.

If my personal outlook is that the markets will fall further would it not be wise to act now to protect my fund and move frim equities to cash?

Then, when my outlook becomes positive, buy back into equities. Therefore reducing the downside effect on my fund and getting back in when i believe the tide is rising.

Surely this is much better than doing nothing, as you suggest? I dont understand this advice unless I am missing something.

Of course my investment horizon is 30 odd years but that shouldnt discourage me from protecting my funds at certain times and investing in equities at other times to take a more bold approach.

Given the currebt crisis surely it makes sense to get out of equities (if my own personal outlook is such that itll get worse)?
 
jim said:
@Sunny
If my personal outlook is that the markets will fall further would it not be wise to act now to protect my fund and move frim equities to cash?
Click to expand...
At any given point in time, stock prices represent the consensus view of value as determined by all market participants.

Have you any reason to believe you know something the market has yet to discover?

To put it another way, do you think you have an edge over all other market participants?

Remember: if it’s in the press, it’s in the price.

If you do go to cash, how will you know when to get back into stocks?

My advice is not to try and time the market. Set your allocation as between stocks and bonds according to your need, ability and willingness to take risks.

And then stay the course.
 
Reactions: jim

Hmmmm it's hard to answer this , if you can't invest now because you think you know the way the market it going your quite likely IMO to try time marker again at a future date.
If your investment horizon is really 30 years then your going to have a few crashes in there , listen losing money is as much a skill as making money , not everyone can deal deal with losing money .your going to have times in the future where your going to see your shares crash , how will your react then ?
If you want to be a trader have a go at that for a year or 2 put a % of your wealth in and start shortening if you think markets will crash further you'll quickly realize your clueless to what way markets are going to go short term, or there's a very very slim chance you have a talent and go on to be a successful trader .

As Buffet said you wouldn't buy a farm and get it valued everyday , so don't buy shares and check value of them daily cause youll go mad and make bad decisions .

If you can't face throwing everything in now , you could try average in over next couple of years buying a set % each month , mathematically I think odds are that time in market beats timing but for a compromise it's not bad . I buy monthly myself but that's because I cream off savings but initial lump was in one go , actually initially I averaged in till someone showed me research to say you fair worse , maybe @Sarenco .
 
Jim if you change your thinking around a bit you will see that a dropping market for someone in your position is actually a good thing.
Let's say you are someone who has a standing order to buy a certain item each month (let's pretend it's oil and that you are an airline). If the price of oil falls, you're not going to phone your supplier and say that you want to cancel that standing order as the oil is too cheap, are you? If anything you might be encouraged to stock up now (but that would be trying to time things so let's discount that for now).
As the market continues to drop you are buying in at a better price. By selling now and moving to cash you would be crystalising the losses already incurred.
A good book to read on the subject is https://www.amazon.co.uk/Millionaire-Teacher-Wealth-Should-Learned/dp/1119356296/ref=sr_1_2?qid=1583486807&refinements=p_27%3AAndrew+Hallam&s=books&sr=1-2&text=Andrew+Hallam (Millionaire Teacher) but also have a read of this post.
 

Investment makeover for 35 year old living abroad

very interesting reading this thread from 2014, alot of very good advice on it. However what stood out then was the aftermath and trauma from the financial crash only a few years beforehand. Many posters were against investing in property then, and were favourable to investing in international equities . It is obvious why this was the case now, property was still in the doldrums along with irish equities whereas international equities had staged a substantial recovery by then led by the US markets.
Now in 2020 the US markets have been on a stormer, international equities (outside of US) have gone no where and only had a good run in the last 6 months which has been again eradicated again by the corona virus panic. Irish equities have similarly gone no where ( brexit being the big overhang since 2016) The only stand out has been property, but property is no longer cheap, however it is unlikely to crash again because of the shortages. However it looks like there will be more taxes on investment properties with all the noises coming from the politicians.
If property was a stock that could be traded its value would have dropped 10% following the election of SF and another 13% now with the corona virus panic, because it takes so long to transact a property none of these fleeting worries are reflected in the price of houses until a 2008 rolls along, then all of these issues get reflected . In other words all of the factors that affect stocks immediately also affect the long term value of property, property is not independent of stock markets in the long term.
 
No, it’s probably a decent time to buy, assuming that you’ve a decent time-horizon. And to put my money where my mouth is, I’ve decided to make my 2020 AVC today.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
And to put my money where my mouth is, I’ve decided to make my 2020 AVC today.
Click to expand...
I paid mine last week, but hoping it's dealt with at the usual inefficient pace that they deal with such an 'unusual transaction', so should be invested sometime later this week or next.
 
Are you still following this plan?
 
Will the corona virus be still around next year.....unlikely. In that case the current market volatility could and I emphasize could be a good buying opp
 
It looks like, I've been told, that we're heading into a recession. The markers for this have been hit.

I'm fairly green about all this but wanted to guage what people think here.

I was very inclined to liquify my pension and come into the market again when theres an upturn using technicalities in the market. But as I said I don't have the confidence to do so yet. I contacted my pension company with someone I know but she impressed on me that I should stay the course and just wait for the market to recover. That seems quite reasonable advice but if there's chance of coming out now and avoiding more loss without penalty or much risk then I would go for it. My question is what are my options. Ideally I would like to step out of the market until it recovers knowing this is going to get a lot worse.

Another question is what should I do with a reasonable sized lump sum. If the recession hits and it looks like we're on the way should I wait till it hits and try and time the market to invest in funds.

I probably should speak with a Financial Advisor which I will do if anybody has any suggestions.

So in a nutshell

1) Should I pursue trying to liquify my pension with regard to going back in when recession lifts.
2) What products should I look at with regard to entering with a lump sum
3) I probably should get professional advice: so if anyone has any suggestions and what prices I would be looking at for a consultation: maybe you could PM me. Would be much appreciated.

As I said I'm not that educated in the market hardly at all.

Thanks
 
Last edited:

It is extremely hard to get the timing right. If you wanted to exit it should have done weeks ago. If the US can control it then I dont see this lasting months and months.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Menu
Log in
Register