Time to buy in

[Brendan Burgess]

its a zero sum game

Hi Fella

It's only a zero sum game before costs.

After costs, the vast majority of day traders lost money.

In a rising market, they tend to appear profitable because they are generally in the market. But that is not because of their trading.

Brendan

 

[Fella]

Hi Fella

It's only a zero sum game before costs.

After costs, the vast majority of day traders lost money.

In a rising market, they tend to appear profitable because they are generally in the market. But that is not because of their trading.

Brendan

Yeah why point wasn't exact , I was more referencing that for everyone buying thinking they are getting value there are others selling at the same price thinking they are getting value. The conversation on "time to buy in" is absolutely ridiculous to get the opinion of a few hundred people on a forum about the future direction of world markets that not even experts can predict what way will move. The price is the price because the weight of money on each side has agreed this is the current price with all available knowledge , buying or selling now is par value minus costs.

 

[Sarenco]

Well, the S&P500 gained 4.6% by close today.

Dead cat bounce? We’ll see.

But it shows how utterly futile it is to try and time the markets.

Just decide on an allocation between the major asset classes that’s appropriate to your circumstances and stick with it regardless of what’s happening.

 

[Fidgety]

We’re in for a roller coaster ride. Some enjoy such volatility and profit from trading. I have neither the time nor the smarts and wish them well. To my mind, it’s an altogether different mindset and good luck and best wishes. For others, a broad portfolio of great companies offers long term shelter, earnings and capital appreciation. There’s no wrong or right way.

The many different views here make for great reading, reflection and occasionally unsettle a preconceived notion. Such debate is both interesting and refreshing. That many of you give of your time and thought so generously is heartwarming. I have little expertise to offer but I am now determined to give what little I have as part of a generous community who have taught me much.

So I’m hoping we can continue to share our thoughts on this investment forum and some of our experiences. And I’m grateful to all of you who express your opinions.

 

[Fella]

How much was "wiped onto the stock market " today
Funny how the stock market just rises but when it falls it's all dramatic .

 

[SlugBreath]

But....if you had bought in last Friday....you would be doing OK. My pharma share has already gone back up over £1. Now I can take a quick profit of a few grand or not bother.....

How much was "wiped onto the stock market " today
Funny how the stock market just rises but when it falls it's all dramatic .

 

[Fella]

But....if you had bought in last Friday....you would be doing OK. My pharma share has already gone back up over £1. Now I can take a quick profit of a few grand or not bother.....

You took a gamble that paid off , but you might not be so lucky next time , short term your result is more likely down to chance .

 

[SlugBreath]

You took a gamble that paid off , but you might not be so lucky next time , short term your result is more likely down to chance .

You just won't accept that people out there can trade differently and be successful, can you?

 

[Sunny]

You just won't accept that people out there can trade differently and be successful, can you?

You didn't trade successfully. When you placed the trade, what was the probability of the share you bought on Friday falling on Monday compared to the probability of the share you bought rising? I bet you don't know. What made you decide that the share represented value on Friday that wasn't there on Thursday? I bet you that your line of thinking was the share has fallen x% so can't fall much more. That's not trading. It was a short term bet that benefited from high volatility but that volatility could just as easily gone against you. If you think you can make money trading short term volatility on a daily basis then good luck to you....Do I think you can compete with computers and high frequency traders making money on a daily basis for a sustained period? Not a chance.

 

[SlugBreath]

You didn't trade successfully

I did actually.

 

[Sunny]

I did actually.

No you think you did. There is a huge difference.

 

[Fella]

You just won't accept that people out there can trade differently and be successful, can you?

Well certainly not on the back of one successful trade . It's very hard to beat the market , keep going for a few years and see how you get on .
My own history is I've managed to exploit the tiniest edges and make money in various different sectors. I've been around some geniuses who could find and exploit the smallest edges , we all looked at the stock market and couldn't find any edge. I would say 99% of people who claim to make money trading are lying and the 1% that actually do probably don't talk about because they don't want to give the edge they have up.
Unless you have information that is not in the public domain forget it .

 

[elacsaplau]

You didn't trade successfully.

Sunny,

Is your goal to have the most ironic username in internet history or something?

Recently, on another thread, I took a short-term position and I labelled it gambling. You chastised me for my use of the term!

Here, SlugBreath prefers to use the term "trading" and you tell him he's gambling.

Wouldn't something like Mr. Consistency be a better nom du clavier?

Just kidding...…..well, a little - every joke is a bit of a joke, etc.

 

[joe sod]

How much was "wiped onto the stock market " today
Funny how the stock market just rises but when it falls it's all dramatic .

Markets climb the stairs but descend the elevator, is a common financial saying, its a reflection of the fact that fear is a much more powerful emotion than greed. These emotions have speeded up with technology, so last week was the fastest sell off in financial history.

 

[SlugBreath]

If you think you can make money trading short term volatility on a daily basis then good luck to you..

I have been doing it successfully for 20 years. Unlike you I will put my cards on the table and even name the shares that I have traded if allowed.
I only trade three shares and have traded these three shares for nearly 20 years. I know these 3 companies inside out.

I have bought each of these shares and sold each of these shares dozens of times. So I am a short term trader but have held these shares on and off for 20 years so am I a long term holder? I try and buy on weakness in the price and sell when they rise. I also pay close attention to the ex dividend dates and try to hold the shares on these dates so I can collect. One of these shares pays a dividend 4 times a year so with this one it can be difficult.

Last Friday I bought one on weakness and sold on Monday and made some decent money. This evening the Dow has fallen back so I will have a look at see how the markets open tomorrow, I may even buy the same share again that I bought on Friday and sold on Monday. Then again I may not.

Well certainly not on the back of one successful trade . It's very hard to beat the market , keep going for a few years and see how you get on .

It wasn't one successful trade. It was one of dozens made over the years. I admit it has become more difficult sinceCampbell O'Connor ceased trading and my costs with my new broker have risen substantially.
I am being honest.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I admit it has become more difficult sinceCampbell O'Connor ceased trading and my costs with my new broker have risen substantially.

I don't understand that at all.

Campbell O'Connor had very high costs.

So you should be making even more money now if you switched from them to an online broker.

Brendan

 

[Sarenco]

Markets climb the stairs but descend the elevator, is a common financial saying

Really?

I have never heard that phrase before. So I googled it. Nada. Apparently the internet has never heard the phrase either.

These emotions have speeded up with technology, so last week was the fastest sell off in financial history.

And yet we’re living through the longest bull market in history. For the first time ever the S&P500 has enjoyed over 10 years without a drawdown of 20% or more to any market close.

Where is the evidence that technology is increasing market volatility?

 

[joe sod]

I have never heard that phrase before. So I googled it. Nada. Apparently the internet has never heard the phrase either.

just google "markets climb the stairs" and there are numerous different references to it, Im sure you have heard of it yourself too but you insist on nit picking my posts, Im paraphrasing its not an exact quote but of course you knew that

Stocks Take the Stairs Up and Elevator Down | MarketStrats Blog

Stocks tend to drop significantly faster than they rise. Understand why this happens and what you can do about it.

marketstrats.com

just one of many different results, I dont understand what point you are trying to make

 

[Sarenco]

No, I’ve never heard that phrase before. I googled exactly what you said was “a common financial saying” and got no results.

Regardless, can you point to anything to evidence that technology has increased market volatility? And even if it has, what, if anything, should an individual do about it?

 

[Fidgety]

Technology has played an important role in market volatility in that automated trade executions occur more speedily hastening movements in early and after market trades. Moreover, these trades accelerate with fear to the downside more than they do to the upside. Euphoria is no match for terror.

Technology stocks tend to take the biggest and hardest wallop during volatility. That’s because most of their value is linked to what they will become in the future which none of us know yet. Similarly, the FANG stocks represent a large portion of the valuation gains and therefore, any faltering momentum or external event, hammers harder and drags other tech companies with them.

And so, on what can the individual do? In a word, sfa on the sophisticated electronic machinations driven by the professionals but we can take a view on the unregulated tech monopolies growth potential and all that comes with it. Mindful of the swings, focused on living our lives, we can’t time it but we can ride it.

Good value is a whisper away from being great.
That is why, in answer to the original post, it may soon be time to invest at a level you believe represents good value.
I have a number of stocks inventoried which are good value tonight. I have my price, given all of my research, and when they hit my number, I’ll fill my boots at the price I think represents great value. And then I’ll forget about them, save some more and go again at the next pullback. I will certainly not be able to time the market and I will sleep soundly and not worry if the price retreats further.