Yeah, a lot of the instability challenges are down to pure speculation, once that declines further it should become more stable.
Up until recently, I'd be inclined to agree with him. However, I'm thinking that some of the new breed of stablecoins that are coming out would serve people in those situations much better (unless or until btc can get volatility under control).
But look I'm not a proud man, if bitcoin is above $15,000 in a year's time I will admit that I got it seriously wrong.
...cough, cough....ahem! I knew this thread could be be interesting
Price on Jan 3 2019 - €3,804Me Jan 3 2018 said:But look I'm not a proud man, if bitcoin is above $15,000 in a year's time I will admit that I got it seriously wrong.
Price on Jan 3 2019 - €3,804
I am astounded at the recovery it has made since then. But then I am amazed what has happened to the financial world since then. Unprecedented Central Bank interventions. 30 year interest rates below 0%The bitcoin narrative - don't trust the conventional financial model - couldn't have had a greater boost.
Aside: That thread reminds me of that nutter TheBigShort - where did he disappear to?
I have no issue with central banks or fiat currencies and I wouldn't touch a cryptocurrency if the monetary system being operated was structurally sound. But its not, its corrupted to the core. The system is so vast that it is able to withstand certain levels of fraud and corruption. But when the levels of corruption and fraud and manipulation reach the levels they are at, the system is basically dying a slow death. The consequence of this is that everyone is out for their own self-preservation, including nation states.
Personally, I think focusing on absolute peaks (and for that matter absolute lows like the one in March this year) serves little purpose. They tend to be extreme and brief in bitcoin, so what are they really telling you?The surprise is that bitcoin, unlike gold (guessing here), is still way below its historic high.
Didn't you know that Dukey automatically turned into a bitcoin bull from Jan. 4 2019 onwards?Ah! I see, it was the price on a very specific date that you were referring to as opposed to the specific price ever reaching or sustaining $15,000 itself? Okay....I get it!!
This has been pointed out to his Dukeness and others here ad nauseum. However, picking the ATH price helps in trying to manufacture a certain narrative. He provides another example by trying to claim that gold is performing better when the data shows that bitcoin is the best performing asset of the past 10 years, the past 5 years, last year and of 2020.Personally, I think focusing on absolute peaks (and for that matter absolute lows like the one in March this year) serves little purpose. They tend to be extreme and brief in bitcoin, so what are they really telling you?
No-one has provided you with a neat little calculation to arrive at specific price - just like gold doesn't have one (yet there's NO outrage (re. the pricing of gold) to be found when that's pointed out). It's a brand new asset (within a brand new asset class). Models and metrics are being devised.And no one has yet shown how any of those prices were justified.
I wasn't aware of any 'outrage' but I do remember you mentioning that at the time. Personally, I bought back in at $6,000 in late 2018.I am glad that none of you remember my post where I said that a bet Paddy Power were giving 6/4 on Bitcoin being below $15,000 by the end of 2018 being as close to free money as you could get. And that really annoyed a lot of people.
Brendan's claim that "Bitcoin is clearly in an identifiable bubble" can reasonably be deemed a very poor prediction at this point
Is it a 'bubble' then in it's entirety from inception right up until today? Surely this is a re-defining of the term 'bubble'? I've never known any other asset to be classed as a bubble on the basis of it both inflating and deflating within that definition. There have been times of over exuberance in the market - no doubt. However, surely it wasn't in a bubble in 2014 or 2018?Bitcoin is a bubble. It is clearly identifiable as a bubble. It is lasting much longer than I expected but that does not make it anything other than a bubble.
I think there's a deficiency in terms of accepting the possibility of an unexpected outcome on the crypto-critic side of this debate.I mention this, not to have a go at Brendan, but just to show that less hubris and more humility will likely lead to a better exchange of views.
Okay, I am quite gobsmacked that bitcoin is back at the price that I shorted it in early 2018(I closed out at 8,000).Personally, I think focusing on absolute peaks (and for that matter absolute lows like the one in March this year) serves little purpose. They tend to be extreme and brief in bitcoin, so what are they really telling you?
Would you not agree that a long term average of price might be a better indicator of what the 'actual value' of bitcoin is (lets maybe leave that can of worms closed) or what a sustainable value is?
Sorry I can't seem to embed the image, but here's a long term chart with the 300 day simple moving average overlaid as a line on it. That is just about at an all time high now. The previous peak of 20k was a brief outlier far above the average at the time, and was the top of one of 3 notable spikes in the chart, which show the 3 major historic 'bubbles'.
We are also currently in the longest period that bitcoin has been above $10k.
I mean, I see that you quoted Dazed in Pontoon - but what you've responded with in no way addresses the point that he made to you. Instead, you've reverted to trying to support your ongoing narrative.Okay, I am quite gobsmacked that bitcoin is back at the price that I shorted it in early 2018(I closed out at 8,000).
But even more gobsmacked must be those enthusiasts who have confidently valued bitcoin at six figure sums, notably Fidelity quite recently. They must be scratching their heads that with everything in alignment on the bitcoin narrative, it is languishing at a mere fraction of their valuations.
he does not seem to be possessed with the Midas touch when it comes to understanding the complex dynamics of Bitcoin's pricing.
You understand it just as well as you understand the pricing of gold.I don't think that any of us understand the pricing.
It's a new asset in price discovery mode yet the data shows that bitcoin volatility continues to reduce. Meanwhile, we've had equities, oil, gold etc. oftentimes more volatile than bitcoin in 2020.But there is a widespread and long lasting madness that has it worth $5,000 one week, $10,000 the next, $15,000 now, and maybe $5,000 again next month. There is no modelling of madness.
That's just your opinion, Brendan - not a statement of fact.The valuation is clear enough - zero.
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