Yeah, a lot of the instability challenges are down to pure speculation, once that declines further it should become more stable.
The Bitcoin threads could be interesting in the future
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Yeah, a lot of the instability challenges are down to pure speculation, once that declines further it should become more stable.
Now that the US election is more or less done and dusted, getting back to more familiar territory. From nearly three years ago....
...cough, cough....ahem! I knew this thread could be be interesting
...cough, cough....ahem! I knew this thread could be be interesting
Duke of Marmalade
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...cough, cough....ahem! I knew this thread could be be interesting
Price on Jan 3 2019 - €3,804Me Jan 3 2018 said:
Aside: That thread reminds me of that nutter TheBigShort - where did he disappear to?
Anyway, on bitcoin, I am astounded at the recovery it has made since then. But then I am amazed what has happened to the financial world since then. Unprecedented Central Bank interventions. 30 year interest rates below 0%
The bitcoin narrative - don't trust the conventional financial model - couldn't have had a greater boost. The surprise is that bitcoin, unlike gold (guessing here), is still way below its historic high.I myself am perplexed by current financial phenomena and do not profess to understand them. But the other big bitcoin narrative - hyperinflation - is just not happening (yet). So the bitcoin price will sustain itself whilst these bizarre conditions persist but I have trust that we will come out of this in reasonably one piece (can't tell when) and then the bitcoin price will hit its true value.
(Editors' note: I don't think you are particularly trollish Wolfie but if the usual trolls join us I'm off.)
Price on Jan 3 2019 - €3,804
Ah! I see, it was the price on a very specific date that you were referring to as opposed to the specific price ever reaching or sustaining $15,000 itself? Okay....I get it!!
I am astounded at the recovery it has made since then. But then I am amazed what has happened to the financial world since then. Unprecedented Central Bank interventions. 30 year interest rates below 0%
Aside: That thread reminds me of that nutter TheBigShort - where did he disappear to?
Rather than recycle the whole thread, I think it fair to leave the last word to him?
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DazedInPontoon
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Personally, I think focusing on absolute peaks (and for that matter absolute lows like the one in March this year) serves little purpose. They tend to be extreme and brief in bitcoin, so what are they really telling you?
Would you not agree that a long term average of price might be a better indicator of what the 'actual value' of bitcoin is (lets maybe leave that can of worms closed) or what a sustainable value is?
Sorry I can't seem to embed the image, but here's a long term chart with the 300 day simple moving average overlaid as a line on it. That is just about at an all time high now. The previous peak of 20k was a brief outlier far above the average at the time, and was the top of one of 3 notable spikes in the chart, which show the 3 major historic 'bubbles'.
We are also currently in the longest period that bitcoin has been above $10k.
Didn't you know that Dukey automatically turned into a bitcoin bull from Jan. 4 2019 onwards?Ah! I see, it was the price on a very specific date that you were referring to as opposed to the specific price ever reaching or sustaining $15,000 itself? Okay....I get it!!
This has been pointed out to his Dukeness and others here ad nauseum. However, picking the ATH price helps in trying to manufacture a certain narrative. He provides another example by trying to claim that gold is performing better when the data shows that bitcoin is the best performing asset of the past 10 years, the past 5 years, last year and of 2020.
We will need very latecomers to hit the bigger numbers in BTC in the years ahead so for those blind homies amongst us, thank you for your sacrifice and service!
Brendan Burgess
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I am as gobsmacked by the stupidity of the Bitcoin fanatics as the Duke.
$20k down to $3k and now back up to $15k.
And no one has yet shown how any of those prices were justified.
I am glad that none of you remember my post where I said that a bet Paddy Power were giving 6/4 on Bitcoin being below $15,000 by the end of 2018 being as close to free money as you could get. And that really annoyed a lot of people.
Brendan
$20k down to $3k and now back up to $15k.
And no one has yet shown how any of those prices were justified.
I am glad that none of you remember my post where I said that a bet Paddy Power were giving 6/4 on Bitcoin being below $15,000 by the end of 2018 being as close to free money as you could get. And that really annoyed a lot of people.
Brendan
No-one has provided you with a neat little calculation to arrive at specific price - just like gold doesn't have one (yet there's NO outrage (re. the pricing of gold) to be found when that's pointed out). It's a brand new asset (within a brand new asset class). Models and metrics are being devised.
I wasn't aware of any 'outrage' but I do remember you mentioning that at the time. Personally, I bought back in at $6,000 in late 2018.
I think people, invariably, like to focus on their successful predictions and afford lesser attention to the ones that went south. For example, Brendan's claim that "Bitcoin is clearly in an identifiable bubble" can reasonably be deemed a very poor prediction at this point. Brendan has also made public predictions regarding other financial instruments that have similarly been spectacularly wrong. I mention this, not to have a go at Brendan, but just to show that less hubris and more humility will likely lead to a better exchange of views. Just my opinion.....which, of course, may well be flat wrong!
Brendan Burgess
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Rose - with respect that is nonsense.
Bitcoin is a bubble. It is clearly identifiable as a bubble. It is lasting much longer than I expected but that does not make it anything other than a bubble.
Brendan
Is it a 'bubble' then in it's entirety from inception right up until today? Surely this is a re-defining of the term 'bubble'? I've never known any other asset to be classed as a bubble on the basis of it both inflating and deflating within that definition. There have been times of over exuberance in the market - no doubt. However, surely it wasn't in a bubble in 2014 or 2018?
I think there's a deficiency in terms of accepting the possibility of an unexpected outcome on the crypto-critic side of this debate.
Duke of Marmalade
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Okay, I am quite gobsmacked that bitcoin is back at the price that I shorted it in early 2018(I closed out at 8,000).
But even more gobsmacked must be those enthusiasts who have confidently valued bitcoin at six figure sums, notably Fidelity quite recently. They must be scratching their heads that with everything in alignment on the bitcoin narrative, it is languishing at a mere fraction of their valuations.
I'm afraid that we will have to agree to differ on this one. And , of course, I could be wrong but simply denying what I said does not alter my thinking.
Personally, I'm not a bitcoin gal. But let's be fair. We are 3 years on from the original statements about Bitcoin, the original sense of which was that Bitcoin would have well and truly exploded by now. Of course, as time passed, you were cute enough to modify your commentary so that it became that you can't predict the timing of this madness of crowds - just the ultimate trajectory. Hence you can never be wrong. I think that this is a cousin of after-timing.......in the original phase of the bitcoin discussions, there was a definite sense of a clear and present danger.
Following on from Tecate's well made points, the question that strikes me is when did Bitcoin enter bubble territory?
Personally, I'm not a bitcoin gal. But let's be fair. We are 3 years on from the original statements about Bitcoin, the original sense of which was that Bitcoin would have well and truly exploded by now. Of course, as time passed, you were cute enough to modify your commentary so that it became that you can't predict the timing of this madness of crowds - just the ultimate trajectory. Hence you can never be wrong. I think that this is a cousin of after-timing.......in the original phase of the bitcoin discussions, there was a definite sense of a clear and present danger.
Following on from Tecate's well made points, the question that strikes me is when did Bitcoin enter bubble territory?
I mean, I see that you quoted Dazed in Pontoon - but what you've responded with in no way addresses the point that he made to you. Instead, you've reverted to trying to support your ongoing narrative.
Is that what Fidelity said - that bitcoin would be $100k today? I must have missed that part of their report.
Speaking of valuations - I see from earlier in this thread that Duke of M said that it was a bubble price back in 2015? If correct, arguably he does not seem to be possessed with the Midas touch when it comes to understanding the complex dynamics of Bitcoin's pricing.
Brendan Burgess
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I don't think that any of us understand the pricing.
The valuation is clear enough - zero.
But there is a widespread and long lasting madness that has it worth $5,000 one week, $10,000 the next, $15,000 now, and maybe $5,000 again next month. There is no modelling of madness.
Brendan
You understand it just as well as you understand the pricing of gold.
It's a new asset in price discovery mode yet the data shows that bitcoin volatility continues to reduce. Meanwhile, we've had equities, oil, gold etc. oftentimes more volatile than bitcoin in 2020.
That's just your opinion, Brendan - not a statement of fact.
There was another Bitcoin thread recently where questions remained unanswered. I asked a question which got the Leaky Leo approach from Tuesday, i.e. where the specific question was ignored. I shall repeat it because it is relevant I think - when did Bitcoin enter Bubble territory?
Brendan Burgess
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Hi Rose
When does any asset enter a bubble? It's hard to know.
But when someone is worth zero and people start paying real money for it, then it's probably a bubble. But don't get hung up on titles.
It's worth nothing. Yet someone is prepared to pay $15,000 for one. It's bizarre.
If you show that it does not match the trajectory of previous bubbles, then I don't mind if you want to call it something else. It's worth nothing. You can call it a bubble or call it something else.
Others have called it a Ponzi Scheme which I don't like. A Ponzi scheme implies some deliberate fraud, which does not appear to be the case with Bitcoin.
Brendan
When does any asset enter a bubble? It's hard to know.
But when someone is worth zero and people start paying real money for it, then it's probably a bubble. But don't get hung up on titles.
It's worth nothing. Yet someone is prepared to pay $15,000 for one. It's bizarre.
If you show that it does not match the trajectory of previous bubbles, then I don't mind if you want to call it something else. It's worth nothing. You can call it a bubble or call it something else.
Others have called it a Ponzi Scheme which I don't like. A Ponzi scheme implies some deliberate fraud, which does not appear to be the case with Bitcoin.
Brendan
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