The Bitcoin threads could be interesting in the future

[Duke of Marmalade]

Of course it's possible to predict the outcome of something without being certain of it. Is that really where we're at here?

I'm afraid so. It's not me, read the other posts.

 

[Dan Murray]

I could predict that it will rain in Meath on the 2nd of....

Classic Elac,

Mind you - I think it was a good job that you chose Meath. If you had said Clare, then I think it would be reasonable to claim certainty that at some stage during the day, any day, it would turn soft!!

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I could predict that it will rain in Meath on the 2nd of March or April or whatever month you like. If my prediction proves right, would it not be reasonable for someone to suggest that I couldn't have been certain about such an outcome?

I know nothing about the rain in Meath. But it's subject to the science of Meteorology. If Joan Byrne looks at the data, processes it through her computer and tells us that there is a 67% chance of precipitation in County Meath on a particular day, I think that is the best we can do.

If I tell you that Ryanair shares are worthless because "everyone is flying with competitors" and then it turns out that there was a huge fraud in Ryanair, I would be right for the wrong reasons.

Bitcoin has no value just like an empty bag has no value. No one has even attempted to put a value on it. So we can be sure that it has no value. We can also be sure that it will not be priced above $100 for ever. The big unknown is the timing and whether it will rise even further before the bubble bursts.

Brendan

 

[TheBigShort]

I think there is a wide misinterpretation of views being peddled here of those that hold bitcoin, by those who don't hold it.
I don't think anyone who is holding bitcoin is not open to possibility of it returning to zero at some point. Its just that they don't think it will return to zero anytime soon, and instead has a long life span ahead of it. That is the reason for buying it. If I think it will increase in value I will buy more (quite soon, actually). If I think it will decrease, I will sell.

But for the record, in case I'm wrong, and it returns to zero before I even know whats going on, here are my hands up in advance;

"I was wrong, how could I have been so stupid as to buy into this nonsense. Why didn't I listen to all the great advice on AAM!"

 

[Brendan Burgess]

"I was wrong, how could I have been so stupid as to buy into this nonsense. Why didn't I listen to all the great advice on AAM!"

But now is the time to open your eyes to that! Not after it has collapsed.

But if your bet is only a token bet, you might as well leave it for the craic.

Brendan

 

[elacsaplau]

No one has even attempted to put a value on it.

Eh, no

So we can be sure that it has no value.

Eh, no

We can also be sure that it will not be priced above $100 for ever.

Eh, no

 

[Fella]

Hi Fella

I would have agreed with you on this 100% until the dot.com bubble came along. Then I realised that on rare occasions, mania grips a market, and that market can be shown to be wrong.

So now I agree with you only 99% of the time.

The bitcoin mania is clear to anyone who is not a believer.

I invest in shares for the long term. I don't attempt to beat the market or to time the market. I know that I am taking a risk with those shares. I believe that the potential returns justify the risks.

Selling Bitcoin to me is just another investment where the potential return way outweighs the risks involved. It will form just a small part of my portfolio. I won't want to close a losing position but I will do so.

But I fully agree with you that irrational behaviour is difficult to time. Bitcoin might be over $15,000 this time next year. I might well lose money by selling Bitcoins short. But I think we are at the peak of the bubble. I will sell Bitcoin short with a guaranteed stop and just live with the losses if the mania gets worse and lasts longer.

Brendan

So we are largely in agreement on most things which is good to see , where we differ is I don’t see a way to profit from this and you do. We both invest in shares and we both agree it’s pointless trying to time the market , you think Bitcoin is worthless and a bubble you might be right but even if I agree 100% how can I profit from that information?
I just don’t buy the argument that Bitcoin is almost guaranteed to have crashed by the end of this year , you haven’t explained why very well for me it’s as likely to go up or down , the lunacy has to end soon is not a great reason for it to end soon.

Can you see my point we both would of been 0% or probably if you asked us both a few years ago could you see a worthless invented coin going from 1- 14,000 and staying at roughly that price when the option is there for all to short it , no chance I would have said and I bet you would of said the same .

I feel like you desperately want to make a profit from this cause you missed out on a chance to make profit on dot com or tulip bubble , but you won’t be honest with yourself and admit there is no way to profit and your bets your making are as likely to lose as win because of the short time frame of closing the Bet.

I’ve had lots of similar oppurtunitys in the past and I know the feeling of wanting to make money and be right and I had to at times just be honest with myself that there’s no edge here with my info.

The edge I’d be looking at is if Bitcoin crashes what will benefit ? Gold perhaps ? Is there an edge there , that for me is a more calculated gamble instead of 50/50 will Bitcoin value games on x date .

 

[Dan Murray]

I just don’t buy the argument that Bitcoin is almost guaranteed to have crashed by the end of this year , you haven’t explained why very well for me it’s as likely to go up or down , the lunacy has to end soon is not a great reason for it to end soon.

Great post, Fella

Remember the Duke was predicting the demise of Bitcoin back in 2015 when it was just over $200. You could get yourself very, very broke convincing yourself you were right all the while since then.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Hi Fella

Certainly, if I had done the research I have now done, when Bitcoin was $1,000, I would have sold it and lost a lot of money.

So by selling Bitcoin now, I run the significant risk that I might lose my investment.

However the downside for Bitcoin seems much more likely than the upside. it will eventually return to zero. But if it heads over $35,000 before it collapses, then I lose my money. Again, I would stress that I am investing only a small percentage of my portfolio. With ordinary shares, I expect them to rise and fall. I don't expect any of them to drop to zero. Selling Bitcoin is different - my investment could drop to zero.

I would like a much more specific bet e.g. That Bitcoin will fall below $8,000 by 31 Dec 2018. Even better would be a two year bet that it would fall below $8,000. But no one is offering that. I did ask Betfair to put prices for the 31 December, but they have not responded.

Brendan

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Interesting that those who live with a pathological fear of being told "I told you so" have no problem dishing it out

 

[Dan Murray]

I would like a much more specific bet e.g. That Bitcoin will fall below $8,000 by 31 Dec 2018. Even better would be a two year bet that it would fall below $8,000. But no one is offering that. I did ask Betfair to put prices for the 31 December, but they have not responded.

Hi Brendan,

What odds do you think would be fair to both parties as at 31/12/18 and 19? [Can I take it that the price at say close of business on the relevant day is the relevant price?]

 

[Dan Murray]

Interesting that those who live with a pathological fear of being told "I told you so" have no problem dishing it out

Pathological fear is an inappropriate term. Nonetheless, I do accept that it would be difficult to witness the characterisation of a successful prediction as a certainty.

It would be a bit like playing poker with a debutant who manages to fill a good hand and enquires "does this beat that?"

 

[BreadKettle]

I would like a much more specific bet e.g. That Bitcoin will fall below $8,000 by 31 Dec 2018. Even better would be a two year bet that it would fall below $8,000. But no one is offering that. I did ask Betfair to put prices for the 31 December, but they have not responded.

It could fall below 8k, that sort of % drop has happened before several times. That doesn't spell the end at all though, it recovers. Why wont you take the zero/bitcoin armageddon bet? That's been your most frequent and sure prediction.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

What odds do you think would be fair to both parties as at 31/12/18 and 19? [Can I take it that the price at say close of business on the relevant day is the relevant price?]

Hi Dan

Why do I want a fair bet?

There are crazy people prepared to pay $15,000 for an empty bag. I want an unfair bet against them.

If and when Betfair sets up an exchange, I will offer odds and see if someone takes them.

Until then, I have to get my action from spread betting on IG Index.

Brendan

 

[Dan Murray]

Hi Brendan,

I'd like a fair bet!!!!

I don't want to step on the toes of Fella or Elac who were first to market here......but if you are really looking to bet on your ideal scenarios (i.e. prices as y/e 18 & 19), I'd be happy to come out to play if you offer a fair bet (given everything you've said). Remember, I have consistently said that I just don't know how to value BTC.

I would suggest that formal terms be agreed and money deposited with a solicitor for reclamation by the winning party.

In deference to the aforementioned posters, I would grant them first call.

 

[elacsaplau]

Remember the Duke was predicting the demise of Bitcoin back in 2015 when it was just over $200. You could get yourself very, very broke convincing yourself you were right all the while since then.

Fair enuff, Dan but it actually doesn't even take years - ever read up on Nick Gleeson, Jerome Kerviel et al? Once the market goes against you, it can be a very isolating place.

Bad days can turn into bad weeks; bad weeks into bad months and so it goes - I've seen it happen.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Here I go falling for one of Dan's gambits. I looked at that 2015 thread. I didn't predict anything about its price. Sure I was of the view then as I am now that it is a load of baloney.

I know I am going against the Trump/Brexit zeitgeist but I actually still have trust in experts in their field. I don't think the likes of Krugman were shouting "bubble" back in 2015 but they certainly are now, and who am I to disagree with the experts.

 

[Dan Murray]

Ah Duke - now that's just semantics or sewomantics, if you will.

When you said it was the greatest load of baloney and that its use was not worth nearly enough to justify its then price (all of 200 smackeroonies!) - we all knew what you meant.

I think it would be better just to admit that you got that call seriously wrong rather than try re-write history.

[I referenced previously your selectivity regarding experts but that post was deleted so I am unable, regrettably, to comment further on that particular point.]

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Ah Dan - you've left a pawn hanging there and I'm going to grab it.

I currently believe that bitcoin is (next to) worthless. How can I admit I was wrong? I didn't predict anything about its price trajectory, maybe I would have got that wrong, I don't know. But look I'm not a proud man, if bitcoin is above $15,000 in a year's time I will admit that I got it seriously wrong. Keep this post in your database, Dan, as you seem to keep most of my others.

 

[Nermal]

I know I am going against the Trump/Brexit zeitgeist but I actually still have trust in experts in their field. I don't think the likes of Krugman were shouting "bubble" back in 2015 but they certainly are now, and who am I to disagree with the experts.

The Krugman who said markets would never recover from Trump? That's who you consider an expert?

If he wasn't making laughable Bitcoin predictions in 2015, it's because he didn't even know what it was.