Well very few of them are willing to commute to Dublin for starters. The new Benefit in Kind hikes from 1 January will depress that number even further. And there is practically no new housebuilding in a lot of the provinces.
It's 6,000 a year, which equates to a quarter of the current supply of 24,000 units. Seems like a fairly fundamental issue. 86% of tenancies registered according to the RTB are mom & pop investors, 14% are REITS.
It's more likely based on what people getting out like myself are feeding back over and over - the high risk of non-paying tenants and government intervention blocking sale of your property.
You can find it deep in the RTB Annual Report but only for 2021.
You misunderstand the metric. It is not a measure of units available to the rental market. It is just the number of private landlords who exit the market. Not all of the units they sell are sold to owner-occupiers. What was the change in total tenancies?
Back in 2021 the RTB reported that 85% of landlords owned 1 or 2 properties. With the likes of IRES owning close to 4,000 properties, either there has been a massive increase in small landlords or you again misunderstood the metric.
That's why the 2022 numbers are of most interest, to what extent did the institutional landlords or new landlords replace those leaving...
You are confusing primary with priority. The priority is (or imo should be) keeping landlords in the sector for 2023. Doing nothing isn't going to do that. After telling landlords they could not evict a tenant, despite having followed all the rules in doing so, and bringing in legislation overnight prevent landlords from getting their own property back, it is incredibly naive to think there isn't going to be an avalanche of evictions and landlords leaving the market in springtime. It will also push landlords who were previously on the fence to possibly consider selling now. What's going to be different in November 2023 compared to November 2022, if nothing is the answer, then another winter eviction ban will be introduced then. So April to October is the windown for landlords to get tenants out and their properties back.
As pointed out by another poster, the trend the last 5 years plus is landlords leaving the market. Yes, some are leaving cause house prices are high, they were accidential landlords, they left negative equity etc, but not all of them are in this boat. Others are taxed excessive, fear the ability to gain control of their properties, and have seen their rights as landlords continually and repeatedly diluted to the benefit of tenants. They have also been vilified by the media and are left on the defensive and unable to evict a non-paying tenant for 2 years and to the expense of tens of thousands of euros. Far from being an anomaly, landlords leaving I expect to increase year on year until the next general election. If you are basing last year as being an anomaly, perhaps your gut instinct is correct, but I'd like to hear what else you have bar your gut instinct for this belief.
What I'm suggesting is that a large proportion (A) of landlords leaving are 'mom and pop' landlords who are most likely or highly probable to be renting at a far lower level that the REITS are charging. These are being replaced by a very small number of landlords (mom and pop) entering the market who certainly are charging market rent or far in excess of market rent. In aggregate terms, there is a much disproportionate number of rentals towards the lower scale of rent changes leaving in my opinion.
There was a report on the Examiner or the Journal last weekend about either Sherry Fitz or Mark Rose about 67% of their sales in 2022 were landlords leaving the market and 16% of purchases were buy-to let. The figures kinda stack up to what I'd expect. The 16% I believe included parents purchasing properties for use by children, but were classified as buy-to-lets regardless.
Any replacement is not like for like is two respects:
I'd say your estimate for 2023 is far too low. The government in mid October 2022 predicted that 2,273 evictions would occur over the winter of 2023 if the eviction ban was not introduced. These evictions will be delayed until the springtime of 2023 and I suspect will speed up other landlords decision making ahead of a similar eviction ban in the winter of 2023/2024. Coupled with higher house prices in 2023 and increasing interest rates increasing landlord costs (who are limited to increasing rents by 2% per annum), I would expect to see around the 10,000 mark for landlords leaving the sector over 2023.
Exactly, the last two years have shown an increase of 100%. In assessing the whole picture, I think it's more likely that the 6,000 figure will increase again in 2023 than it will decrease in 2023. For what it's worth, to put a figure on it, I would expect to see around 10,000 tenancies ended in 2023.
I believe 2022 wasn't a major year for REITS in terms of adding to their stock portfolio. I recall small sales by some REITS of some developments also. Bear in mind, if a landlord had 3 properties and sold one and another landlord with one property sold and left the sector, your percentage figure of landlords with 1 or 2 properties would increase. So statistics don't exactly tell you everything.
Remember when Daft publish annual rents increasing by 10% etc or whatever they are, those figures are based on advertised rents. So these are new rentals to the market who naturally enough are charging the absolute maximum they can as well as rentals that have become vacant and I presume the rent is increasing by 2% per annum. So, again, it's fairly reasonable to believe that the new rentals are charging rents well in excessive of the properties that are leaving the market. Bad news for current renters and future renters.
That's you opinion on priority, it just happens that I don't agree. Unless and until supply constraints are dealt with everything else is just little fingers in a big dam. That won't happen quickly, but the longer they spend debating legislative tweaks while ignoring the lack of supply issue, the greater the problem will become.
Yes, landlords have been leaving, others have been joining albeit at a slower rate, but the bigger story may be the shift aware from accidental and single or double property landlords to larger scale operators. That in itself is not necessarily a bad thing.
Have another read, it was 36%, not 67%, and being the most expensive operator here, they may not be fully representative of the overall market.
Are you using the 6,000 estimate of landlords as a basis of estimating tenancies being ended?
I fully agree, it's a disastrous situation for new renters seeking properties and I'm very glad I'm not one of them.
A number of the large investors have bought, and continue to seek out existing properties. Some of them are actively pursuing owners in some of the developments that have hit the headlines in recent times due to fire certification issues offering to buy them out.
