They seem to be backed by Turkey? I don't see what Turkey would have to gain by having ISIS on its doorstep rather than Assad.
Russian Foreign Policy
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Duke of Marmalade
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My understanding is that ISIS are Sunni whilst Assad was Alawhite/Shi'ite.
Is that all it comes down to? An ISIS Sunni would be preferred to Shi'ite? Even though Syria under Assad wasn't causing trouble for Turkey?
Wouldn't full on ISIS consider Turkey to be 'decadent'?
The new regime is making noises at least around investment, business, religious toleration... positioning itself in the Saudi Arabia space than what we had heard before from ISIS.
We'll see.
Duke of Marmalade
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It is true that formally Turkey did join the war against ISIS. But a bit like Haughey's crowd who had sympathies with the IRA.Wikipedia said:
As for Sunni vs Shi'ite, I think it is on a par with the enmity between Catholics and Protestants of 4 centuries ago.
So the game is up for Ukraine. Trump will stop paying for the war (over $600 billion and counting) and is cosying up to his pal Putin.
My prediction;
Russia will keep Crimea and most of the land it took. The USA and Russia will carve up Ukraine's mineral rights. Ukraine will be demilitarised and will never join NATO. Within a generation is will be fully back within Russia's control.
The EU and it's member states will bleat and whine like naive children about the rights of Ukraine and how Europe has a right to be part of the discussion and decision making process, still unaware the rights are worthless unless you have the ability to assert and defend them.
Maybe, just maybe, this will be the wake-up call that makes the EU realise that it can't hide behind the US any longer and if it wants to be taken seriously it has to be able to defend itself and its allies.
If you want an invite to the dog-fight you need to have a dog that can fight.
We will, as usual, personified by our current President, display our usual arrogance and hypocrisy, blind to how annoying our hollow, feeble and self-righteousness moral grandstanding is.
My prediction;
Russia will keep Crimea and most of the land it took. The USA and Russia will carve up Ukraine's mineral rights. Ukraine will be demilitarised and will never join NATO. Within a generation is will be fully back within Russia's control.
The EU and it's member states will bleat and whine like naive children about the rights of Ukraine and how Europe has a right to be part of the discussion and decision making process, still unaware the rights are worthless unless you have the ability to assert and defend them.
Maybe, just maybe, this will be the wake-up call that makes the EU realise that it can't hide behind the US any longer and if it wants to be taken seriously it has to be able to defend itself and its allies.
If you want an invite to the dog-fight you need to have a dog that can fight.
We will, as usual, personified by our current President, display our usual arrogance and hypocrisy, blind to how annoying our hollow, feeble and self-righteousness moral grandstanding is.
So looks like Ukraine will be sold-out to Russia and by extension its allies Iran, Nth Korea. How can Trump not see that Iran will benefit from this ?
And surely the US military cannot be happy with this ?
As Purple says, its a wakeup call to the EU to get its act together and build a strong military defence, including Ireland. NATO may just become a purely European alliance, so get on with it.
And surely the US military cannot be happy with this ?
As Purple says, its a wakeup call to the EU to get its act together and build a strong military defence, including Ireland. NATO may just become a purely European alliance, so get on with it.
Former UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, writing in the Daily Telegraph, (requires subscription) said that "The West has chosen dishonour in bowing to President Putin – and will be rewarded with more war". In his Op-Ed he said that Trump was like Chamberlin in 1938.
I am increasingly of the belief that the EU will be the last bastion of democratic freedom as the US consumes itself in an internal conflict between two versions of fundamentalism; the religious right and pseudo-liberal left. No matter what side emerges victorious the freedoms that it was (kind of) founded on will be greatly diminished. If the EU, as the second biggest economy in the world (third after the US and Chine in Purchasing Power Parity terms) wants to survive then it has to have the ability to defend itself. Presently Russia, with an economy slightly larger than Italy, out spends the entire EU in military terms.
I do disagree on this point. I think the US will militarise Ukraine - that will be the only security guarantee they will get. They want their "debt" repaid, so will sell them arms. I think there will be some type of civil war in Ukraine. It will obviously remain in Russia's orbit, destablisation of any democratic activities will continue.
Obviously, this is the death of any notion that US "security guarantees" exist, EU multi-lateralism is the only show in town. The chances of this materialising is low, however. If it was to materialise, this should be the death of "neutrality" for EU members. Another consequence of this is the end of nuclear non-proliferation. No country will ever nor should ever give up their ultimate guarantee. Ukraine will seek them and again, and they'd be justified too.
Clickbait for Greenwald. Spam post.
Ireland was never a neutral country. We have a policy of military non-alignment. In other words we have a policy of letting other countries pay for our defence and kids from other countries die to protect us. It is based on cynical self-interest dressed up as virtue signalling bombast and grounded in snivelling cowardice dressed up as moral hypocrisy.
Bow down croppy boy
Field Marshal Montgomery, who was later hailed as a hero for defeating Rommel’s forces in north Africa, noted in his memoirs: “I was told to prepare plans for the seizure of Cork and Queenstown in southern Ireland so the harbours could be used as naval bases.”
Churchill had Plan to Invade ‘Nazi’ Ireland
Comment by the Churchill Centre: Churchill had many plans during World War II, including a preventive war with the Soviet Union after the fall of Nazi Germany-as did every […]
winstonchurchill.org
Well I'm against wearing a powdered wig but I don't have cropped hair, this isn't the 18th Century (that may be news to you) and I'm not a boy, but you've never let the facts get in the way of the opinions you hold so carry on.
Yes, the world and its mother knows that the allies had a plan to invade Ireland and take the Treaty Ports if there was a threat of German invasion or if it was a strategic imperative. The reality was that Germany never had the Naval capability to invade England, a little over 20 miles from France at their closest points, let alone Ireland, 380 from France.
losttheplot
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More likely that we're militarily insignificant. If we were kids in a playground being picked for football, no one would really pick us. They'd take our ball if they needed it though.
Probably still true today, if the stakes were high enough and NATO needed a base, they'd take it. Out of politeness, they might ask first, but there wouldn't really be a choice. The lads with the flags and megaphones could protest all they like. Our current government wouldn't stop them. An anti-war left government wouldn't have the capability to do anything except protest and talk about sovereignty and International Law.
We're the guy with no football, not contributing to the upkeep of the grounds and sitting on the side-line but who think we should have a say in how everyone else plays and how they maintain the facilities. We also think that if it rains we should have access to their clubhouse and if we get hurt we should have access to their medical facilities, all without contributing to any of it.
Exactly and given the likely circumstances in which that would be required we'd probably be glad to see them.
You really should read up in the Second World War. Germany was in it. It's quite interesting.
losttheplot
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Given the choice between the Allies using the bases or the Nazis, I don't know a tough one.
Being invaded by Britain (Allied Forces) after being invaded by Nazis is generally rereferred to as Liberation by European countries.
Powerful contribution and assessment of the new paradigm by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Munich Security Conference.