Russian Foreign Policy

Up to this Putin has been able to shield the elites and middle class from this war, hopefully its now 1990 continued. What will china do, will they come to Putin rescue by shoring up russian economy, I doubt it. Putin was trying to create a Chinese currency system as alternative to dollar, but now russian elites want dollars and euros
 
I've heard that the war has actually helped the middle classes in some ways as the shift to a war economy is driving up wages.
 
Purple said:
I've heard that the war has actually helped the middle classes in some ways as the shift to a war economy is driving up wages.
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But there is only so many things they can buy with those wages since alot of luxury western goods are gone , they can't go on holidays to Europe, just places like Egypt, India, Asia, gets a bit samy after a few years, a bit like us during COVID trying to convince ourselves that staycations were the new Lanzarote. Also inflation very high and you have the huge cloud of uncertainty about what will happen in the future, a bit like Germany in the early years of the war before the consequences came home to Berlin and cologne
 
I think there has definitely been a change by Biden in the last month, they are really ramping up supplies to Ukraine and turning the screw on Russia. They want to give Ukraine momentum and prevent any back pedaling by a potential trump presidency. Also the fact that China seems to be helping Russia more and more seems to be galvanizing the US into action, crippling Russia now is easier than a war with china in the far east in a few years
 
I see the G7 leaders are about to give Ukraine a loan of 50 billion every year which will be paid off from the interest payments from russian seized central bank assets. Essentially it's a way for them to give the russian assets to Ukraine but it also leaves the door open for Russia to see sense , probably after Putin is gone. It also insulates Ukraine from a trump presidency somewhat
 
joe sod said:
I think there has definitely been a change by Biden in the last month, they are really ramping up supplies to Ukraine and turning the screw on Russia. They want to give Ukraine momentum and prevent any back pedaling by a potential trump presidency. Also the fact that China seems to be helping Russia more and more seems to be galvanizing the US into action, crippling Russia now is easier than a war with china in the far east in a few years
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Nothing happens in Russia (and her proxies) or in Iran (and her proxies) without China's say so. They are bankrolling all of it.
 
Purple said:
Nothing happens in Russia (and her proxies) or in Iran (and her proxies) without China's say so. They are bankrolling all of it.
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To an extent but this is Putins war not China's, they are keeping Russia afloat but out of self interest not love for Putin, also they not prepared to go all in with Putin, they were also surprised at the shocking performance of the russian military and believed Putins rubbish that it would be a very short war. Obviously they not want to see a humiliating defeat by Russia as then they would have to bin all their prejudices and theories carefully cultivated since collapse of soviet union also a big shock to communist china
 
this loan on russian interest .does that mean ukraine will be paying back the interest to russia when this is over?

"It also insulates Ukraine from a trump presidency somewhat" a executive order from trump would reverse this straight away or what could stop him?
 
johnwilliams said:
this loan on russian interest .does that mean ukraine will be paying back the interest to russia when this is over?

"It also insulates Ukraine from a trump presidency somewhat" a executive order from trump would reverse this straight away or what could stop him?
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No it's nothing to do with trump as most of the funds are in Europe and they are guaranteed individually by the European countries not by EU so orban can't throw a spanner in the works. The funds will never be going back to Russia anyway as they will eventually be paying the war reparations, that seems a long way into future. Its just a technical way of getting around actually seizing the funds , on paper they still belong to Russia but its a carrot left there for a potential future sensible russian leadership
 
"I believe that Putin is fighting exclusively for himself. He realizes that he is isolated. He is not completely isolated, unfortunately, there are people who are still balancing, despite all the terrorism he has brought, and not only to our country. There are many countries in the world. Africa and Syria. But there are people who are balancing, unfortunately. In my opinion, he is fighting exclusively for himself. How can he overcome the isolation that he has now? He is no longer a player for many countries. By the way, he is no longer a player for China either. I am sure of this. They all understand that he will end up either respecting international law or he will do some radical things that will lead to his isolation. I think he thinks about the bipolarity of the world. He is trying to divide it in this way, because it is impossible for him to get out of isolation. So he has to do everything he can to get someone to join him. Our task is to make sure that his isolation is understood by his society, so that he has pressure inside the country. Then there is an opportunity to end the war"

Great analysis of Putin by zelensky, he cannot escape isolation therefore he needs to try and bring others with him
 
I was reading that Ukrainian special forces are operating in Syria, they are targeting Russian and wagner presence there. Wagner are training Syrians and others in terrorist training, this is part of the Russian asymmetric campaign against the west and its allies. Also the Ukrainians warned the Israelis before the October 7 attacks of what the Russians were up to. Israel did not do anything, the attacks by hamas had some of the hallmarks of the Ukraine war with the use of drones etc which hamas had no capability beforehand and obviously got training from Russians and wagner

It seems that both the US and Israel are unwilling to confront Russia over this, probably because then the US will have to get more involved in Ukraine war
 
Sophrosyne said:
What will Putin do now?
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He is trying to ignore Kursk and continue the offensive in Donetsk. Because he controls the media in Russia they are not really reporting about Kursk. Also he is pressuring Belarus to move troops to the border in order to distract Ukraine, more than likely just a big bluff as lukashenko does not want to get involved, a bit like how Franco reacted to Hitler's demands

Putin has been very smart for once and probably not reacted the way Ukraine expected. Ukraine biggest issue is not Putin but the western leadership not making decisive decisions in time but procrastinating and causing Ukraine to lose more men and lose the initiative and element of surprise. The failure of the counter offensive last year was due to delays in arms deliveries and leaks of intelligence to Russia which meant the russians had heavy defences in place and knew when and where Ukraine would attack
 
The Financial Times reports that India is supporting Russia's war effort, supplying critical components through channels hidden from Western Governments. There are also plans for Russia to build factories in India to support and supply the Russian military.
 
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