Russian Foreign Policy

michaelm said:
Above is a key point. We are not under any credible threat of invasion.
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As if the "threat of invasion" is the only point on the spectrum of conflict to consider. Its inane to dismiss our defencelessness on a point that is essentially irrelevant in the context of Ireland's defence policy (current and future). Not least to justify the status quo of our tacit support for the Russian invasion (Germany buys their gas, we make frowny faces and wag the finger).

Focussing on food security and energy security don't exist in isolation. There are all interdependent and ignoring one aspect (defence) can render your other efforts meaningless. For example, your energy security is only as good as the security of your infrastructure, digital and physical.

It works the same when we focus on our own "self-interest". All sudden everyone else focusses on their own self interest too. That's the world of mé féiners. Those people and polices offer nothing and have delivered nothing towards Ireland's success up to now, and will not in the future. While everyone has their own national interests, we participate in structures that cooperate on issues for collective benefit. Why is Defence so different?
 
odyssey06 said:
I would prefer an EU military pact, in the absence of that, then we need to seriously think about NATO membership.

NATO isn't perfect, well, one could take a pure self interest on it and say all the more reason to make sure you are in the biggest gang.

Unless you think we are 'too pure' for NATO? Really? Better than who exactly? Every other proper country in the EU?
Better than Canada? Better than Denmark? Better than the Netherlands? Seriously?
Too holier than thou more like it.

What is this perfect country which does not rely on NATO members to ultimately defend it without getting their hands dirty??? Please name them. You could have said Sweden but now they are seriously looking at NATO membership. Switzerland's dirty banking secrets invalidate it as a candidate.
What is this other Utopia?

It's Skibbereen Eagle territory.

It really isn't beyond Russia or some other actor to hit us as the weak link when the EU takes a stand. We've seen Russia doesn't give the slightest damn for morality or previous treaties or established norms of political conduct. On the global stage even the USSR had some respect for that as it tried to appeal to non aligned states even if it treated its own citizens as serfs.

We have negligible defence capacity. If we want ourselves and the EU to be able to play a role on the world stage opposing evil regimes like Russia, then we need to beef up our defence capabilities - and going it alone would be a lot more expensive.
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another thing never mentioned is Northern Ireland also in NATO. Surely if there is any serious ambition for a united Ireland we have to show that we are serious about the defence of the whole island. If the whole island was in Nato it would smooth the path for a potential united ireland. If we continue to carry on as we are well then a united will always be off the cards . There is not a hope of us convincing the northern unionists to abandon the UK and Nato to join a neutral ireland with a non existent defence force
 
Can you imagine the uproar from the Whataboutery brigade if the big, bad USA did something like this?


Russian soldiers are forcing civilians to dig mass graves and bury the dead in exchange for food and water, the mayor of Mariupol has claimed.

... a third mass grave was discovered near the port city of Mariupol, where it is estimated 20,000 civilians have been killed. Satellite images of the village of Staryi Krym show that a trench which measured up to 64m on March 24 had been extended to 183m two weeks later.

Vadim Boichenko, the mayor of Mariupol, said the findings had been confirmed by villagers conscripted to help bury the dead.

www.independent.ie

Ukrainian official says series of blasts in southern Russia are ‘karma’ for Moscow’s invasion

Russia reported a series of blasts in the south of the country and a fire at an ammunition depot today, the latest in a spate incidents that a top Ukrainian official described as payback and "karma" for Moscow's invasion.
www.independent.ie www.independent.ie
 
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The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based thinktank, has said Russia is staging "false-flag attacks" in Transnistria.

"As we reported yesterday, explosions were heard in the Moldovan breakaway region in the early hours of the morning and radio antennae were destroyed.

The ISW said the battalions in Transnistria are "not likely sufficient" to mount an attack on the nearby Ukrainian town of Odesa by themselves, "nor are the Russians likely to be able to reinforce them enough to allow them to do so".

However, it said the troops could "support more limited attacks to the northwest of Odesa, possibly causing panic and creating psychological effects to benefit Russian operations in the south of Ukraine".

The thinktank also warned Russia could seek to destabilise Moldova by recognising the self-styled Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) in Transnistria."
 
Sophrosyne said:
The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based thinktank, has said Russia is staging "false-flag attacks" in Transnistria.
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The Germans did the same sort of thing to justify their invasion of Poland in 1939. The most famous was the Gleiwitz Incident, an attach on a radio station by German soldiers dressed as Polish soldiers (the then ardent Nazi Oskar Schindler, later the character in a Hollywood fantasy movie, was one of the senior organisers of the attack).

It is deeply ironic that the Russians are so closely copying the playbook of Hitler while 'de-Nazifying' Ukraine.
 
Purple said:
It is deeply ironic that the Russians are so closely copying the playbook of Hitler while 'de-Nazifying' Ukraine.
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You're right...

German newspapers and politicians, including Adolf Hitler, had made accusations against Polish authorities for months before the 1939 invasion of organising or tolerating violent ethnic cleansing of ethnic Germans living in Poland.

en.wikipedia.org

Gleiwitz incident - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
Itchy said:
Not least to justify the status quo of our tacit support for the Russian invasion (Germany buys their gas, we make frowny faces and wag the finger).
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The EU is now capitulating to Russian demands to pay for their Gas in Rubles, thus agreeing to fund Russia's war in Ukraine. The Germans are leading the charge in this cave-in.
 
Purple said:
The EU is now capitulating to Russian demands to pay for their Gas in Rubles, thus agreeing to fund Russia's war in Ukraine. The Germans are leading the charge in this cave-in.
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Just on that, Putin has cut Russian gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and has threatened to cut supplies to other EU countries.

I don’t know how much Poland and Bulgaria pay Russia for the gas, but is Putin cutting off his nose to spite his face?
 
Sophrosyne said:
Just on that, Putin has cut Russian gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria and has threatened to cut supplies to other EU countries.

I don’t know how much Poland and Bulgaria pay Russia for the gas, but is Putin cutting off his nose to spite his face?
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The cut off of the supply to Poland an Bulgaria is because their existing contracts expired and they refused to agree a new one based on payment in Rubles.
Germany and Austria have agreed to pay in Rubles. That's all that matters.

Their suppliers will purchase the gas in Euro them convert the payment into Rubles in Gazprom's Swiss Bank before the money goes on to Russia. In effect they will be propping up the Ruble and Russia's economy. Since there is a single EU energy market this is an EU wide decision to continue to fund Russia's war in Ukraine.
 
Purple said:
Their suppliers will purchase the gas in Euro them convert the payment into Rubles in Gazprom's Swiss Bank before the money goes on to Russia. In effect they will be propping up the Ruble and Russia's economy. Since there is a single EU energy market this is an EU wide decision to continue to fund Russia's war in Ukraine.
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Why at Gazprom's Swiss Bank ? Are there not sacks of rubles held outside of Russia by, e.g. oligarchs, holders of ruble-denominated bonds, etc. who are looking to unload their rouble holdings? Why not just buy rubles at a discount from these sources and present them to Gazprom?
The reason I'm asking is that when Ireland had its own currency - the Irish Pound IEP 1979 -1999 - the Central Bank went out of its way to ensure that large holdings of IEP could not be accumulated offshore, to prevent speculation against the IEP, e.g. mass selling to drive it's price down; settlement of non-IEP denomonated debts in IEP, etc.
 
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Purple said:
The EU is now capitulating to Russian demands to pay for their Gas in Rubles, thus agreeing to fund Russia's war in Ukraine. The Germans are leading the charge in this cave-in.
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But it's not as simple as that, if Germany was to switch off Russian gas it would collapse German industry affecting the whole of Europe including Ireland. The fact is that a lot of crucial industrial components and chemicals needed by everything from agriculture to computer chips are made in Germany.
The fact that Germany is so dependent on Russian gas can be layed at past German leadership especially Angela Merkel who shut down German nuclear and mothballed German coal powered stations (which they are now reversing and bringing back online by the way).
It's going to take a bit of time to get Germany off Russian gas, it is better that most of the damage is done to the Russian economy rather than unnecessarily damaging the European one.
The fact is that the Russian industrial capability to manufacture new weapons is being seriously hampered by their inability to obtain high tech components like microchips from the west. Russia will not obtain the capability to produce these themselves either, it's not like ramping up wheat or fertilizer production. Whereas European industry can keep rolling all this stuff but they need the energy. LNG or wind turbines etc can in no way replace Russian gas for a long while yet
 
joe sod said:
But it's not as simple as that, if Germany was to switch off Russian gas it would collapse German industry affecting the whole of Europe including Ireland. The fact is that a lot of crucial industrial components and chemicals needed by everything from agriculture to computer chips are made in Germany.
The fact that Germany is so dependent on Russian gas can be layed at past German leadership especially Angela Merkel who shut down German nuclear and mothballed German coal powered stations (which they are now reversing and bringing back online by the way).
It's going to take a bit of time to get Germany off Russian gas, it is better that most of the damage is done to the Russian economy rather than unnecessarily damaging the European one.
The fact is that the Russian industrial capability to manufacture new weapons is being seriously hampered by their inability to obtain high tech components like microchips from the west. Russia will not obtain the capability to produce these themselves either, it's not like ramping up wheat or fertilizer production. Whereas European industry can keep rolling all this stuff but they need the energy. LNG or wind turbines etc can in no way replace Russian gas for a long while yet
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It certainly isn't simple but Russia would be hit hardest by cutting off their gas. The fact is that the EU blinked first.
 
Run of the mill discussion on Russian state TV, considering the strategic use of an undersea nuclear blast to devastate the "British Isles".

"Such a barrage alone carries extreme doses of radiation. Having passed over the British Isles, it will turn whatever is left of them into a radioactive desert, unfit for anything for a long time".

Whatever about the tabloid nature of the presentation (they actually do have the capability, probably from an airdrop rather than undersea drone), its interesting that their is no distinction between NATO and "neutral states" (we already know this from the invasion of Ukraine and we are starting to see the destabilisation of neutral Moldova) and also the conditioning of the Russian population to discount the human cost of military action.

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But, but, but, surely our precious, cherished and beloved neutrality will protect us from all harm. Someone should really explain it to that chap on the video and make sure to tell that nice Mr Putin also. Maybe Ming-n-Mick-n-Claire could have a word with their pals in Moscow. We'll be grand then. Apparently radioactive fallout respects neutrality too and will automatically avoid us. Happy days!
 
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