Russian Foreign Policy

hearing now that russian goverment has passed a new law where protesters against the war could now face up to 15 years in jail, it just has to be signed off by putin
 
johnwilliams said:
hearing now that russian goverment has passed a new law where protesters against the war could now face up to 15 years in jail, it just has to be signed off by putin
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What war... its a peacekeeping mission.

Is it a sign they were expecting protests?
 
Just shows you Putin was a gambler and bluffer all along, another thing when the west was so consumed with the reality TV show of the Trump presidency they ignored the real danger in plain sight. But in fairness nobody knew this was going to happen even in the Kremlin.
The strange thing is why did Putin only go rogue now he has been there for 22 years and he is almost 70 now.
Hitler was making shapes from the beginning but Putin was ultra modern and progressive at the start ( unless this was just an act)
I think it could be because hitler.had charisma , Stalin had charisma but Putin had no charisma, all he had was the hard man strong man thing.
I remember at the very beginning of Putin the sinking of the Kursk submarine happened, Putin looked very vulnerable then , Putin was forced by public pressure and the families of the submariners to allow Norwegian and British divers to dive down to the Kursk and open the hatch. Russia did not have the expertise to do it then
But even though Putin hated allowing the west to open the hatch of their sunken submarine he was forced into it by that very modern thing, public opinion, this strong man thing is actually only an affectation
 
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Purple said:
Putin did nothing for the first few years other than take control of most of the media. Without a free Press there can be no freedom. Once he’d done that he could do almost anything.
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But Putin looked very weak at the start, he only got that position because of Yeltsin who actually had loads of charisma, but Putin has none, that's why he is so aftaid of zelensky who is now actually leading Europe
 
joe sod said:
But Putin looked very weak at the start, he only got that position because of Yeltsin who actually had loads of charisma, but Putin has none, that's why he is so aftaid of zelensky who is now actually leading Europe
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1. The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues. But, it has been delayed towards Kyiv because of the destruction of an important bridge by the Ukranians plus breakdowns of the convoy, fuel shortage and some demoralisation of troops. It is a racing certainty that this convoy will eventually get to the other side of the river.
2. A Ukranian sniper has killed an important Russian general who in a normal war wouldn't have come with thirty miles of the killing fields.
3. In the south Russia has made some gains and Kerson although encircled is still fighting. It has no electricity, no water, probably little food and temperatures are freezing.
4. Nuclear plants are always a danger especially in war.
5. New laws have been passed in Russia to ensure its media has sole use by Putin. Anybody who suggests anti Putin information could be jailed for up to 15 years.
6. Putin has all Russian schools informed that there is no invasion happening and it's just a strategic military peace keeping operation.
7. Television pictures indicate there is much anti war protest in Russia and demonstrators are being arrested.
8. NATO has reiterated that it will not send troops into Ukraine and neither will it have Ukraine air space policed by NATO fighter jets.
9. EU and USA leaders are throwing shapes and it appears could escalate at any time.
10. In the meantime many Ukranian women and children can be seen crossing the boarder to safety at several points. We are informed this could increase from one to four million shortly.

Putin is a mad dictator and in his recent interview with Macron indicates he wants Russia restored to include countries that have ceased "membership" of Russia. Along with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland etc it appears Finland is included. Casualties are being understated by the Russians. However, it's only when the body bags are sent back the ordinary people of Russia will learn the truth. Putin has underestimated the resilience of Ukraine and I feel Russian aggression will be increased within days if not hours.

Putin seems to be losing the media war while his Ukraine counterpart Zelensky is using the media well. Putin appears to be a cold blooded killer and war criminal (which he is). He has removed internet access within Russia, but people find ways to access internet from other countries. This minute the English language is working in Ukraine's favour. Many Russians speak English too and the truth is being picked up slowly but surely. Each day this war is prolonged is giving rise to the possibility that Putin will be removed from within. He is a mass murderer and he knows this. Let's hope it happens soon.
 
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joe sod said:
Just shows you Putin was a gambler and bluffer all along, another thing when the west was so consumed with the reality TV show of the Trump presidency they ignored the real danger in plain sight. But in fairness nobody knew this was going to happen even in the Kremlin.
The strange thing is why did Putin only go rogue now he has been there for 22 years and he is almost 70 now.
Hitler was making shapes from the beginning but Putin was ultra modern and progressive at the start ( unless this was just an act)
I think it could be because hitler.had charisma , Stalin had charisma but Putin had no charisma, all he had was the hard man strong man thing.
I remember at the very beginning of Putin the sinking of the Kursk submarine happened, Putin looked very vulnerable then , Putin was forced by public pressure and the families of the submariners to allow Norwegian and British divers to dive down to the Kursk and open the hatch. Russia did not have the expertise to do it then
But even though Putin hated allowing the west to open the hatch of their sunken submarine he was forced into it by that very modern thing, public opinion, this strong man thing is actually only an affectation
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Well remember Hitler was also bluffing to a large degree in the mid 30s, was militarily and financially very weak but figured Britain. France, USSR didn't want to fight.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
The difference between Adolf and Vlad is that Adolf had genuine prospects of conquering Europe. Would have achieved it if he had dropped his obsession against the commies. Vlad would be committing suicide to attempt that thanks to the Yanks having him completely surrounded. My guess is that a nuke war would see 50 million Americans killed and Russia wiped out.
Probably not this time, but who would bet on humanity not self destructing in the next 100 years? Makes action against climate change seem so presumptuous.
Stock up on bitcoin.
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Good point about climate change, all this focus on the "climate emergency" to the exclusion of everything else was complete lunacy. In many ways the focus by Europe especially Germany on renewables has made it so dependent on Russian gas . Now in order to get off Russian gas they are talking about reopening coal fired power stations and reversing course on nuclear energy.
How much carbon has been released in Ukraine with this war, surely the real emergency was not the climate but a nuclear emergency.
The new German chancellor sholz has really stepped up to the plate and is providing real leadership, I'm afraid Angela merkels legacy is well shot now after this Ukraine war, she was the architect of Germany's dependence on Russian gas, the closure of nuclear and coal powered stations and her all too cosy relationship with Putin
 
Leper said:
Each day this war is prolonged is giving rise to the possibility that Putin will be removed from within. He is a mass murderer and he knows this. Let's hope it happens soon.
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You'd have to agree then, that it's more in our interest than not, that the Russian military is delayed/prevented from achieving Putin's political objectives in Ukraine?
 
One good thing to come out of this (which is a terrible thing to say given the civilian slaughter) is that our dependence on America is enormously emphasised. The looney left (Wallace, Daly etc.) and the looney intelligentsia (O'Toole etc.) are put firmly in their box. The nuclear club is as follows:
Russia 1,456
US 1,357
France 280
UK 120
China unknown but small

We now know how absolutely reliant we are on the US umbrella.
Putin calls sanctions a declaration of war. Can anybody doubt that absent the US he would mean it. He would take out the whole of Europe at the cost of a few 10s of millions of his own citizens.
But the US is not just a match in numbers, strategically it would overwhelm Russia, thanks to Nato. How right JFK was to prevent Cuba being a launch pad for a Russian nuclear attack.
This is an enormous strategic mistake by Putin. He was doing well in undermining American influence by getting his sycophant Trump in charge but that has all utterly changed.
The only fly in this ointment is that in desperation the madman may completely miscalculate.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
One good thing to come out of this (which is a terrible thing to say given the civilian slaughter) is that our dependence on America is enormously emphasised. The looney left (Wallace, Daly etc.) and the looney intelligentsia (O'Toole etc.) are put firmly in their box. The nuclear club is as follows:
Russia 1,456
US 1,357
France 280
UK 120
China unknown but small

We now know how absolutely reliant we are on the US umbrella.
Putin calls sanctions a declaration of war. Can anybody doubt that absent the US he would mean it. He would take out the whole of Europe at the cost of a few 10s of millions of his own citizens.
But the US is not just a match in numbers, strategically it would overwhelm Russia, thanks to Nato. How right JFK was to prevent Cuba being a launch pad for a Russian nuclear attack.
This is an enormous strategic mistake by Putin. He was doing well in undermining American influence by getting his sycophant Trump in charge but that has all utterly changed.
The only fly in this ointment is that in desperation the madman may completely miscalculate.
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It seems like Germany was also undermined... Schroeder appears to have been compromised and maybe others. German military became a joke. Hugely dependent on Russia for energy. Trump was all over the shop but he called that right. NATO relying on US for nuclear umbrella is one thing, but its European members shouldnt need US for energy or conventional defence.
 
As I said earlier Germany’s decision to close its Nuclear power plants after the Fukushima non-disaster was a disaster, politically, environmentally and strategically.

A cornered Putin is more dangerous than ever.

The best realistic short term global strategic outcome is a slow bloody intractable war which turns the Russian public against Putin.
The question is which side is willing to bleed more. That’s usually the side that is fighting for their own soil.
 
Purple said:
As I said earlier Germany’s decision to close its Nuclear power plants after the Fukushima non-disaster was a disaster, politically, environmentally and strategically.

A cornered Putin is more dangerous than ever.

The best realistic short term global strategic outcome is a slow bloody intractable war which turns the Russian public against Putin.
The question is which side is willing to bleed more. That’s usually the side that is fighting for their own soil.
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These ceasefires to allow evacuation could be a prelude to the Russians then treating them as warzone and pulverising them. On the other hand I think Russia wanted functioning Ukraine as a prize but maybe now its plan B time.
 
I am absolutely convinced who the bad guys are in this.
But I get slightly concerned when every single bit of news is about another diabolical Russian act.
They say that truth is the first casualty of war.
I suspect there is more than one side of the story on the Russian attack on a nuclear power plant and also on the humanitarian corridors.
I know I am going to be put in the Wallace/Daly sin bin for such heretical thoughts.
 
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Sophrosyne said:
Not that easy to fake nowadays when most news channels carry out verification checks such as footage of the bombing of Hostomel airport 25 kilometres from Kyiv, which was verified by CNN.
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Storyful were one of the first companies doing this. It was founded by Mark Little, formerly of RTE. It was bought by News Corporation in 2013 (3 years after it was founded) for €25 million. I'm sure there was VC money in there but Mark would have made a few bob out of it. The Irish CNN journalist who covered the Capital Insurrection in Washington Donie O'Sullivan cut his teeth there.
 
Agree with you Duke, however we're hearing this morning that these humanitarian corridors are in to Belarus and Russia only! That's either true or false, there cannot be any bias apportioned to it. If true that is as good as saying we are not prepared to offer any humantarian corridors out for civilians. What is he going to do next, offer to run trains to aid the evacuation and say they're being brought to special camps?
 
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Firefly said:
I think Russia might take eastern Ukraine (not sure from where) and block it off from western Ukraine, with possibly a wall. Russia could install a puppet government and use the space as a buffer between Russia and the west. I am hoping that sanctions against Russia last as long as Putin is still calling the shots & hopefully one of rich & powerful people in Russia realise soon that life would be a lot better without Putin...
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I'm going to revise my prediction based a little. I wonder is Vlad going t use this captured part of Ukraine use it as a buffer area between Russia and Europe and install missiles on it. Also, with the potential of millions of Ukraine citizens moving west, is Vlad also orchestrating a migration crises in Europe?
 
Interesting interview with the former commander of the US Special Operations Command in Europe.
He concludes with,
I think the Western liberal democracies have both a moral obligation and a political imperative to support a nation fighting for its independence and the pursuit of a liberal political order in the Western tradition. If not here, where will we take a stand against autocratic and revisionist forces? What should Georgia and Azerbaijan conclude from our timidity in the face of evil? Surely Taiwan is next.

I believe Russia's assault on Ukraine is the leading edge of militarily strong states preying upon weaker ones. Few of us thought we would be here, but so it is. What are we going to do now?

History has been unkind to nations when they tolerate or appease such aggression. The concepts of territorial integrity and democracy cannot end at NATO's borders. Is the rest of the world to be left to the wolves while there is but one island of security? Russia's attack on Ukraine cannot succeed if we hope to build and sustain the benefits of democracy beyond NATO's borders.
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