To expand more and maybe make some predictions. I think the independent transfers will scatter around the other candidates. I think after the initial rounds, we could be left with Michael D in the lead, trailed by Mitchell and Gallagher (with c.20% each) and McGuinness in 4th, though not by much. I have a feeling that McGuinnesses transfers will not be enough to get Michael D elected (I think Michael D will not poll as well as the polls suggest - similar to what happened in the general election that Labour thought they could win). The key to the election will be who of Mitchell and Gallagher gets eliminated before the final count and where their votes go.
I can't see Mitchell getting anything like 20%.