Predictions

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peemac

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Currently my prediction is

FG 44-48

FF 46-50

SF 24-27

FF benefitting from softness in SF vote. Far too many independents running and that will dampen their chances in many areas.

On a good day FF and FG will form a government without assistance.

If the FF positivity trend is correct, (bookies are tightening the odds) then MM will be next Taoiseach.

SF don't seem to be getting any traction at all. Can't see any constituency returning 2 x SF except Donegal. Small chance in louth
 
I'd expect FG to get on the low side of seats based on their vote share due to the large numbers of retirements by sitting TDs.
A lot of personal votes and name recognition gone with the likes of Coveney, Bruton, Humphries, even Leo etc.

So based on that, FF to finish ahead of them and MM for Taoiseach.
 
From listening to the vox pops on the radio, tax and the high cost of living here are being voiced alot. Whereas the government impetus especially with last budget is on tax and spend especially on welfare. Given what happened in the US election are the government parties not picking that up now?
 
It's been a fairly flat campaign so far - but anything can happen in the next couple of weeks to cause headaches for all parties/candidates.

Would agree with the assessment above that FG will do slightly worse than their recent poll figures suggest, SF might do slightly better and FF could well come out on top. Labour appear to be terminally stuck at 3% (astonishing when you think how much bigger they were up to a decade or so ago.) The Soc Dems appear to be doing the best of the left parties and I agree with the commentator who said they might be taking some softer left votes from The Greens.

Having read much of the Greens manifesto it's clear that they are now an extreme radical left party in relation to energy, gender ideology and immigration. (The cold weather predicted over the next week or two may well concentrate minds on the high cost of electricity and heating here. Their outright denial on the need for *fossil fuels flies in the face of reality. Although that said they're not the only party who've signed up to this...)

*I've been checking the Eirgrid dashboard daily for the last week or so. Wind generation is flat while fossil fuels - including gas, coal, imports etc are running at over 85%. Net Zero is complete nonsense.

www.smartgriddashboard.com

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I see there's a new Irish Times/IPSOS poll revealed in the last few minutes. Hard to know what to make of it...I would imagine these numbers will fluctuate all over the place in the coming week or two. Summary below:

Fine Gael 25 (-2 since mid Sept)
Sinn Féin 19 (-1)
Fianna Fáil 19
Labour 5 (-1)
Social Democrats 4
Greens 3 (-2)
Aontú 3 (+2)
PBP-Solidarity 2
Independents/others 20 (+4)
 
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Any polls which show movement up or down within the margin of error are unreliable guides.
All they hints at is some small or no movement in a Parties vote %, but no significant shift has been detected. Margins of error could be up to +/- 4%.

The only real significance here seems to hint at a shift towards the 'Independents/Others'
 
I think it's fair to say FG aren't having a great campaign thus far. Not sure who'll benefit from their fairly minor but silly mistakes (e.g Simon Harris incorrectly stating yesterday that the term "illegal immigrant" is not used in law. It is - and explicitly so.) That "other" issue involving someone getting a beating on the ground seems to be causing them some embarrassment too.

I'd be a natural/typical FG voter on a good day but they'd need to get a bit of control over their message to get back on track. (I'm in the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown constituency and the pickings are unimpressive to say the least. Alan Shatter could be the surprise beneficiary here.)
 
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Howth Head said:
Not sure who'll benefit from their fairly minor but silly mistakes (e.g Simon Harris incorrectly stating yesterday that the term "illegal immigrant" is not used in law. It is - and explicitly so.)
Click to expand...
Methinks Harris is a bit of a spoofer . . as Minister for Health did he not promise to sort out scoliosis waiting lists? and he signed off on the Children's Hospital fiasco. I recall his 18 coronaviruses before COVID-19 https://youtu.be/xQpYUW7-RhE?t=64

FG have been in government since 2011, they have had every chance to implement their ideas, I don't think they are likely to remedy the many ills we currently have. My hope is they have a collapse of support at the ballot box, get fewer than 35 seats, and end up in opposition.
 
Howth Head said:
It's been a fairly flat campaign so far - but anything can happen in the next couple of weeks to cause headaches for all parties/candidates.

Would agree with the assessment above that FG will do slightly worse than their recent poll figures suggest, SF might do slightly better and FF could well come out on top. Labour appear to be terminally stuck at 3% (astonishing when you think how much bigger they were up to a decade or so ago.) The Soc Dems appear to be doing the best of the left parties and I agree with the commentator who said they might be taking some softer left votes from The Greens.

Having read much of the Greens manifesto it's clear that they are now an extreme radical left party in relation to energy, gender ideology and immigration. (The cold weather predicted over the next week or two may well concentrate minds on the high cost of electricity and heating here. Their outright denial on the need for *fossil fuels flies in the face of reality. Although that said they're not the only party who've signed up to this...)

*I've been checking the Eirgrid dashboard daily for the last week or so. Wind generation is flat while fossil fuels - including gas, coal, imports etc are running at over 85%. Net Zero is complete nonsense.

www.smartgriddashboard.com

Explore the Smart Grid Dashboard

Explore energy data in real time for the island of Ireland. See how much energy is being generated, where it's coming from, and how much demand is on the system.
www.smartgriddashboard.com www.smartgriddashboard.com
Click to expand...
Not to mention that 14% of wind energy produced in 2024 was lost
 
michaelm said:
Methinks Harris is a bit of a spoofer . . as Minister for Health did he not promise to sort out scoliosis waiting lists? and he signed off on the Children's Hospital fiasco. I recall his 18 coronaviruses before COVID-19 https://youtu.be/xQpYUW7-RhE?t=64

FG have been in government since 2011, they have had every chance to implement their ideas, I don't think they are likely to remedy the many ills we currently have. My hope is they have a collapse of support at the ballot box, get fewer than 35 seats, and end up in opposition.
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The biggest lie politicians tell is that they can fix things. We are a small open economy which is, to a great extent, open to international factors over which we have no control. That point will be brought home quite forcefully over the next few weeks and months as the new US Government takes office.
We are also a democracy with strong laws protecting the individual from the State and an electoral system which produces strong Parliament and weak Governments. We also have strong State institutions which is both a very good thing and a very bad thing.

All of the above means that politically driven systemic change and reform is very difficult and slow.
 
Could you imagine a "department of government efficiency " like trump has done with elon musk, and the likes of Michael o leary over it. There would be panic
 
joe sod said:
Could you imagine a "department of government efficiency " like trump has done with elon musk, and the likes of Michael o leary over it. There would be panic
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There wouldn't. The places where the most money is wasted are too well protected, any real attempts to address that waste will be met with strikes and the public likely siding with those wasting our money. Such a department would just create more expense for zero gain.
 
Leo said:
There wouldn't. The places where the most money is wasted are too well protected, any real attempts to address that waste will be met with strikes and the public likely siding with those wasting our money. Such a department would just create more expense for zero gain.
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Exactly. There is no scenario in which questioning the work practices of nurses and doctors would be met with anything other than self righteous indignation and a closing of the ranks with the heavily unionised RTE and most of the print media rowing in behind. The same applies for education and most of the State Sector.

The message that "we don't want you to work harder or longer, we just want you to work differently" would never even be heard.
 
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A week later and after a trawl of the constituency betting for all 43 constituencies, I'm sticking to the original prediction.

Unless FF & FG have a poor showing, they'll be 88-92 combined.

SF vote is definitely being affected by independents and I suspect if you exclude their constituencies of strength, (Louth, Cav/Mon & Donegal) and combine it to the younger age profile who are less likely to actual vote, the sf vote will be well under 15% and many will be fighting for the last seat whereas last time, they were toping polls.

A good day (for the country:D) would be under 25 seats for SF and MLMD would almost certainly need to resign.
 
michaelm said:
Methinks Harris is a bit of a spoofer . . as Minister for Health did he not promise to sort out scoliosis waiting lists? and he signed off on the Children's Hospital fiasco. I recall his 18 coronaviruses before COVID-19 https://youtu.be/xQpYUW7-RhE?t=64
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Fully agree. That Covid remark revealed his lack of knowledge which is perhaps forgivable in the circumstances. But the fake earnestness with which he tried to speak about something he clearly knew nothing about is the sign of a chancer.

To me, he’s always seemed like the school “best boy” who tries to please everyone. He’s a hard worker but he doesn’t have the answers anymore than any of his predecessors or competitors. He’s an enthusiastic trier but I suspect he’s not that bright.

I think he may do well enough to carry FG through a successful campaign but it’s only a matter of time before people see through the tik-tok veneer.
 
joe sod said:
Could you imagine a "department of government efficiency " like trump has done with elon musk, and the likes of Michael o leary over it. There would be panic
Click to expand...
Not necessarily, Trump and Musk want to close depts that they don't like, not depts that are inefficient. Dept. of Ed goes so that each state would have more control over the curriculum and could then implement biblical teaching as part of that. That appeals to a part of Trumps base

Likewise, any Dept that has any restrictions over anything Musk's companies does, is going to be in trouble. So from an Irish perspective, it would not be O'leary targetting inefficiencies, instead he would target the DAA as an example, Dep. of the Enviroment on emissions etc.
 
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