Predictions

[peemac]

Currently my prediction is

FG 44-48

FF 46-50

SF 24-27

FF benefitting from softness in SF vote. Far too many independents running and that will dampen their chances in many areas.

On a good day FF and FG will form a government without assistance.

If the FF positivity trend is correct, (bookies are tightening the odds) then MM will be next Taoiseach.

SF don't seem to be getting any traction at all. Can't see any constituency returning 2 x SF except Donegal. Small chance in louth

 

[odyssey06]

I'd expect FG to get on the low side of seats based on their vote share due to the large numbers of retirements by sitting TDs.
A lot of personal votes and name recognition gone with the likes of Coveney, Bruton, Humphries, even Leo etc.

So based on that, FF to finish ahead of them and MM for Taoiseach.

 

[joe sod]

From listening to the vox pops on the radio, tax and the high cost of living here are being voiced alot. Whereas the government impetus especially with last budget is on tax and spend especially on welfare. Given what happened in the US election are the government parties not picking that up now?

 

[Howth Head]

It's been a fairly flat campaign so far - but anything can happen in the next couple of weeks to cause headaches for all parties/candidates.

Would agree with the assessment above that FG will do slightly worse than their recent poll figures suggest, SF might do slightly better and FF could well come out on top. Labour appear to be terminally stuck at 3% (astonishing when you think how much bigger they were up to a decade or so ago.) The Soc Dems appear to be doing the best of the left parties and I agree with the commentator who said they might be taking some softer left votes from The Greens.

Having read much of the Greens manifesto it's clear that they are now an extreme radical left party in relation to energy, gender ideology and immigration. (The cold weather predicted over the next week or two may well concentrate minds on the high cost of electricity and heating here. Their outright denial on the need for *fossil fuels flies in the face of reality. Although that said they're not the only party who've signed up to this...)

*I've been checking the Eirgrid dashboard daily for the last week or so. Wind generation is flat while fossil fuels - including gas, coal, imports etc are running at over 85%. Net Zero is complete nonsense.

Explore the Smart Grid Dashboard

Explore energy data in real time for the island of Ireland. See how much energy is being generated, where it's coming from, and how much demand is on the system.

www.smartgriddashboard.com

 

[redstar]

Prediction: Greens 4 or 5 seats (seem to be stuck at around 4% in opinion polls)

 

[Howth Head]

I see there's a new Irish Times/IPSOS poll revealed in the last few minutes. Hard to know what to make of it...I would imagine these numbers will fluctuate all over the place in the coming week or two. Summary below:

Fine Gael 25 (-2 since mid Sept)
Sinn Féin 19 (-1)
Fianna Fáil 19
Labour 5 (-1)
Social Democrats 4
Greens 3 (-2)
Aontú 3 (+2)
PBP-Solidarity 2
Independents/others 20 (+4)

 

[redstar]

Any polls which show movement up or down within the margin of error are unreliable guides.
All they hints at is some small or no movement in a Parties vote %, but no significant shift has been detected. Margins of error could be up to +/- 4%.

The only real significance here seems to hint at a shift towards the 'Independents/Others'

 

[Howth Head]

I think it's fair to say FG aren't having a great campaign thus far. Not sure who'll benefit from their fairly minor but silly mistakes (e.g Simon Harris incorrectly stating yesterday that the term "illegal immigrant" is not used in law. It is - and explicitly so.) That "other" issue involving someone getting a beating on the ground seems to be causing them some embarrassment too.

I'd be a natural/typical FG voter on a good day but they'd need to get a bit of control over their message to get back on track. (I'm in the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown constituency and the pickings are unimpressive to say the least. Alan Shatter could be the surprise beneficiary here.)