Paddy Power's predictions for the election

[Brendan Burgess]

Big changes in the odds this morning, although the general direction is the same:

FF seats: 49
FG seats: 38
SF seats: 34

Micheál Martin is down from 1/25 to 1/6 to become Taoiseach.

I don't expect Leo Varadkar to be the next Taoiseach,but 14/1 seems like good odds.

He is now 5/1.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Wonkish point on margin of error.
The moe on the EP is 1.3%.
That means that for a 50% vote there is 95% confidence that the true result is between 48.7% and 51.3%.
But for a 22% vote the 95% confidence is between 21.5% and 22.5%. RTÉ keep getting this wrong.

 

[WolfeTone]

Im offering Micheál Martin as next Taoiseach at 1.28 on Betfair exchange if anyone is interested?

 

[WolfeTone]

Upped my bet to 1.30.
Considering there are only two viable options at present, this is surely a generous and tempting offer?

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

UCD guy on RTE predicting FF from 39-46 seats. PP betting 5/6 under 46.5 so that looks a good bet.

 

[Ceist Beag]

FF may only get 41 seats - that's some fall from predictions as recently as a few days ago! I fail to see how MM is still such low odds for Taoiseach, this has been a failed election from their point of view, there can be no escaping that at this stage.

 

[WolfeTone]

MM on RTE1 right now, quite clearly leaving the door open for coalition with SF.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Just placed an interest bet of £20 at 7/2 a SF/FF coalition

 

[Ceist Beag]

What is the PP policy on the next Taoiseach bet if it is a rotating Taoiseach? Do they pay out 50% of the win?

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

What is the PP policy on the next Taoiseach bet if it is a rotating Taoiseach? Do they pay out 50% of the win?

I guess they will pay first past the post i.e. first to be on the merry go round.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I assume that the next Taoiseach will be the next person to occupy the post.

This is what Betfair says:

For the avoidance of doubt, this market will be settled on the candidate for Taoiseach that is nominated by a simple majority of Dáil Éireann.

In the event of any ambiguity over an announcement, Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled. If there is any change to the established ministerial role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion.