Paddy Power's predictions for the election

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Brendan Burgess said:
If I were the head of a party, I would give my top TDs instructions that their efforts to secure extra seats and to cooperate with other candidates would be big factors in the decision to give them a cabinet seat.

Brendan
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Vote management in the past elections seen Ministers lose there own seat at the expense of electing a parish pump type TDs from there own party in there place,
I think it already happened to Simon late Father,
That election was held in February,
Elections held in February several went wrong for the party calling them,
 
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Leper said:
Last night an additional flyer from FG's Simon Coveney came through my letterbox. The letter had a golden harp on top with a picture of himself on the top left hand corner. He asked for our No. 1 Vote to ensure his re-election. Simon Coveney is guaranteed his re-election. He didn't mention his running mate Jerry Buttimer (8/1 at Paddy Power). I read into this that Buttimer is now jettisoned by FG. Therefore, I am now suggesting not to take Buttimer's chance seriously and I hope I'm wrong.
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Last Election2016
Both FF TDs got elected on first count Simon had to wait until the 11 count same count as SF count 11
So FG and SF got elected on Count 11,
If he splits the FG vote with Buttimer and people like Lep thing Simon is safe we could have 1 TD for FG the question is will it be Buttimer or Coveney,

Buttimer for FG And Bogue for the Green are top of the ballot paper Coveney is lower down, FG/GP types could very easily mark 1 on the highest up on the ballot paper once you marked NO1 there is no going back,
 
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Brendan Burgess said:
Mary Lou McDonald is now a potential Taoiseach.

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SF are running ,42 candidates ,so SF ,I suspect if they ran more the would not be as high in the polls,
I suspected FG private polls are telling them the are slipping back,
I think you missed what Leper posted Yesterday,
It was offical FG Poster Drop coming from Dublin not from Cork or Simon Coveney ,
It was Coming from the Leader of FG,
 
Betting on Tanaiste is really fascinating. Eamon Ryan is Even money favourite with Mary Lou very close behind at 5/4, the likes of Simon Coveney 25/1. This doesn't make sense. FF/SF coalition is 11/2 and FG/SF is 18/1, and surely these are the only possible ways Mary Lou can be Tan.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Betting on Tanaiste is really fascinating. Eamon Ryan is Even money favourite with Mary Lou very close behind at 5/4, the likes of Simon Coveney 25/1. This doesn't make sense. FF/SF coalition is 11/2 and FG/SF is 18/1, and surely these are the only possible ways Mary Lou can be Tan.
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are they building in the prospect Simon might get caught out by the green party and not get elected a TD,
 
Here are the odds for the most likely next governments

FF/SF11/2Mary Lou
FF/Green6/1 Eamon Ryan
FF/Green/Independents6/1Eamon Ryan
FF/SF/Green8/1Mary Lou
FF/SF/Independents10/1Mary Lou
FF Minority16/1Neither
FF/FG16/1Neither

So it probably is most likely to be Eamon Ryan with Mary Lou second favourite.

Brendan
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Betting on Tanaiste is really fascinating. Eamon Ryan is Even money favourite with Mary Lou very close behind at 5/4, the likes of Simon Coveney 25/1. This doesn't make sense. FF/SF coalition is 11/2 and FG/SF is 18/1, and surely these are the only possible ways Mary Lou can be Tan.
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So a FF/SF coalition is 11/2 and a FG/SF collation 18/1 while Mary Lou for Táiniste is 5/4.

One of these is seriously out of line. In my opinion the Táiniste odds are reasonable. The coalition odds are off whack.
 
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I am not sure that the coalition odds are off whack.

If, for example, you back FF/SF at 11/2 , you lose if the actual coalition is FF/SF/Green

There is no actual bet: "SF to be in coalition" which would have fairly low odds.

So Mary Lou McDonald to be Tánaiste is a surrogate bet for "SF to be in coalition".

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
I am not sure that the coalition odds are off whack.

If, for example, you back FF/SF at 11/2 , you lose if the actual coalition is FF/SF/Green

There is no actual bet: "SF to be in coalition" which would have fairly low odds.

So Mary Lou McDonald to be Tánaiste is a surrogate bet for "SF to be in coalition".

Brendan
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I take your point though I notice PP has pushed Mary Lou out to 3/1 for Tan which seems a bit more consistent. And working on our hypothesis, I take that to be equivalent to 3/1 against SF being in Government. These gimmicky markets have big margins built in by the bookies so in reality probably 5/1 that outcome - still a frightening prospect!
 
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Boyle Sports have Jerry Buttimer @ 9/1 to take the 4th seat in Cork South Central. I know I said I wouldn't take it having already backed him @ 9/2, but I'm including Jerry Buttimer in this weeks fun bet too.
 
Interesting that. I would have thought FF were losing ground of late and given the stance MM is taking on any possible coalition with SF you would have thought that his odds would be lessening, not increasing. Obviously they are basing it on the fact that FG are losing even more ground and given that it will still be one of the two, he's a clear favourite in their eyes. I'm not so sure. I think if FF fail to achieve seats in the 55+ range they will be less likely to form a coalition unless it includes SF - and if that happens then MM may need to stand aside if he doesn't want to accept such a coalition.
 
Ceist.

Paddy Power is not listening to you.

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It seems that the arithmetic is that only FF can form a government.

It's interesting that they are not giving odds for any other FF candidates for Taoiseach. Based on your reasoning, Michael McGrath is a much more likely next Taoiseach than Eamon Ryan.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Ceist.

Paddy Power is not listening to you.

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It seems that the arithmetic is that only FF can form a government.

It's interesting that they are not giving odds for any other FF candidates for Taoiseach. Based on your reasoning, Michael McGrath is a much more likely next Taoiseach than Eamon Ryan.

Brendan
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Eamon Ryan?
There are inconsistencies here. FF/SF coalition is 7/2, FF/SF/Ind is 12/1 as is FF/SF/Green and there are probably other FF/SF/X combinations. I can't see MM being Teashop of any government including SF. According to these odds the combined odds of a FF/SF/X coalition is about 2/1 and for consistency MM should not be any shorter than 1/2 to be Teashop. Or echoing your point Michael McGrath et al should be in the running.
Okay, PP has his margins; all the same 1/12 is ridiculously out of kilter with the odds on FF/SF/X but I believe is it these latter are wrong - in short there will not be a FF/SF/X coalition IMHO.
 
Yes that must be how PP is reading it. FF to lead the next government without any coalition with SF. So either PP think FF will achieve close to 60 seats and form a majority government with 2 from SDs, Labour and Greens and maybe a few other independents, or else they expect that they will lead a minority government with FG playing the role of confidence and supply partner. The latter seems a much riskier bet so my reading of it is that PP think FF will win more than 55 seats.
 
Ceist Beag said:
Yes that must be how PP is reading it. FF to lead the next government without any coalition with SF. So either PP think FF will achieve close to 60 seats and form a majority government with 2 from SDs, Labour and Greens and maybe a few other independents, or else they expect that they will lead a minority government with FG playing the role of confidence and supply partner. The latter seems a much riskier bet so my reading of it is that PP think FF will win more than 55 seats.
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Not so sure they will hit fifty,
On the ground FF are more interested in holding existing seats than taking a chance on gaining an extra seat by splitting the ff vote,

I had FF calling to my door early days of the General election looking for my no 1 vote aimed at Gaining a 2nd seat,They have being around again putting The sitting TDs posters in letter boxes written with a black marker is a note saying vote no1 for existing TD ,

When I look at all the names that will appear on the local ballot paper there TD lives the longest from my home, Lets just say you would need to set him on fire to get him to move he is so long there,
Is the above going on in other parts of Ireland,I don't think he is going to get elected this time,
 
The odds on Micheál are getting shorter and shorter. I suppose as the elections comes closer there is less chance for a mishap.

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