Vote management in the past elections seen Ministers lose there own seat at the expense of electing a parish pump type TDs from there own party in there place,If I were the head of a party, I would give my top TDs instructions that their efforts to secure extra seats and to cooperate with other candidates would be big factors in the decision to give them a cabinet seat.
Brendan
Last Election2016Last night an additional flyer from FG's Simon Coveney came through my letterbox. The letter had a golden harp on top with a picture of himself on the top left hand corner. He asked for our No. 1 Vote to ensure his re-election. Simon Coveney is guaranteed his re-election. He didn't mention his running mate Jerry Buttimer (8/1 at Paddy Power). I read into this that Buttimer is now jettisoned by FG. Therefore, I am now suggesting not to take Buttimer's chance seriously and I hope I'm wrong.
SF are running ,42 candidates ,so SF ,I suspect if they ran more the would not be as high in the polls,
are they building in the prospect Simon might get caught out by the green party and not get elected a TD,Betting on Tanaiste is really fascinating. Eamon Ryan is Even money favourite with Mary Lou very close behind at 5/4, the likes of Simon Coveney 25/1. This doesn't make sense. FF/SF coalition is 11/2 and FG/SF is 18/1, and surely these are the only possible ways Mary Lou can be Tan.
FF/SF | 11/2 | Mary Lou |
FF/Green | 6/1 | Eamon Ryan |
FF/Green/Independents | 6/1 | Eamon Ryan |
FF/SF/Green | 8/1 | Mary Lou |
FF/SF/Independents | 10/1 | Mary Lou |
FF Minority | 16/1 | Neither |
FF/FG | 16/1 | Neither |
Betting on Tanaiste is really fascinating. Eamon Ryan is Even money favourite with Mary Lou very close behind at 5/4, the likes of Simon Coveney 25/1. This doesn't make sense. FF/SF coalition is 11/2 and FG/SF is 18/1, and surely these are the only possible ways Mary Lou can be Tan.
I take your point though I notice PP has pushed Mary Lou out to 3/1 for Tan which seems a bit more consistent. And working on our hypothesis, I take that to be equivalent to 3/1 against SF being in Government. These gimmicky markets have big margins built in by the bookies so in reality probably 5/1 that outcome - still a frightening prospect!I am not sure that the coalition odds are off whack.
If, for example, you back FF/SF at 11/2 , you lose if the actual coalition is FF/SF/Green
There is no actual bet: "SF to be in coalition" which would have fairly low odds.
So Mary Lou McDonald to be Tánaiste is a surrogate bet for "SF to be in coalition".
Brendan
Eamon Ryan?Ceist.
Paddy Power is not listening to you.
View attachment 4269
It seems that the arithmetic is that only FF can form a government.
It's interesting that they are not giving odds for any other FF candidates for Taoiseach. Based on your reasoning, Michael McGrath is a much more likely next Taoiseach than Eamon Ryan.
Brendan
Not so sure they will hit fifty,Yes that must be how PP is reading it. FF to lead the next government without any coalition with SF. So either PP think FF will achieve close to 60 seats and form a majority government with 2 from SDs, Labour and Greens and maybe a few other independents, or else they expect that they will lead a minority government with FG playing the role of confidence and supply partner. The latter seems a much riskier bet so my reading of it is that PP think FF will win more than 55 seats.
1st Prefs | Seats | ||
Fianna Fail | 26.55% | 54 | |
Fine Gael | 22.55% | 35 | |
SF | 21.54% | 28 |
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