Paddy Power's predictions for the election

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I think the most useful betting predictions are for number of seats.

Power is giving

FF 51. FG 48. SF 18. Lab 9. Green 9

Those are based on the central number for betting rounded down. Some one else can explain exactly what the numbers are, but in essence they are seat numbers.

A big gap there between this and FF numbers as forecast by Ivan Yates.
 
I would have thought that the most important thing is the identity of the next Taoiseach.

In only a few days Micheál Martin has become even shorter odds to become Taoiseach.

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The issue of the identity of the next Taoiseach is of course an important matter, but as it's either Martin or Varadkar with Martin the more likely, that's not very exciting.

The interesting question is how could Martin muster the votes. Your first post above suggests the most likely govt as a FF/SD/Lab/Green coalition. I cannot see that combination getting a majority.

Numerically either FF or FG with SF would be in a strong position, but I don't see either FF or FG backing down on their commitment to not go into govt with SF. Maybe after another election, but not this time.

That leaves us with another confidence and supply arrangement between FF and FG, with FF more likely to be the senior partner this time.
 
Even with a confidence and supply agreement, I think FF might need a 5-10 seat junior partner in government for stability just as FG needed Independence Alliance votes. Labour or Greens most likely. Unless FF get 60 and FG 50, then FF on their own with FG abstaining have enough to command a majority.
 
Yep, and the over 50 seats at 5/6 has become 57 seats, I flagged that one in another thread but was too slow to get a piece of it myself. From past experience I would probably have found that PP had very little appetite for the bet, he tends to see these as marketing gimmicks and makes sure he doesn't get too burned.
Anyway, Leo seems for the chop and Ireland's newly acquired reputation for being the most enlightened electorate on the planet will take a knock. After all Leo was never actually chosen by the people to be Taoiseach.
 
Yea, the violent gang killings recently highlight the failures on law and order. Also the posing at the 40 foot for the Christmas swim and then travelling to India for holiday is bad optics so close to election. Of course he is entitled to a private life but that's not how Irish politics works. The electorate can be very bitchy
 
The odds on Micheal Martin being Taoiseach are shortening i.e. it's getting even more likely.

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I thought that they both did OK last night. The media is making much of the drugs question, but I think that Irish people know that many, most, students smoke spamspamspam?

Or was he just targeting the Ming Flanagan vote?

Brendan
 
Or was he just targeting the Ming Flanagan vote?

No he was just trying to get the pension Issue off the front pages? I suspect FG and SF will be part of the new Rainbow Government,
John Brution ruled out going into Government With the Democratic left after the General election, only to find himself a few months later forming a Government without an election,
Some say it was the best Government Ireland ever had,
FF had 65 seats
FG had 47
Lab had 32
DL had 6
PD had 9
Others 7
FG formed a Government even though it had 18 seats less than FF,
Leo may be telling Michael to put that in your pipe and smoke it,
 
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Our vote is in Cork South Central (4 seater and almost a foregone conclusion this time - 3 sitting TD's to be reelected Martin, McGrath, Coveney with the 4th P O'Laoghaire SF trying to fight off the Greens and the other FG contestant Jerry Buttimer. I stopped off in Paddy Power's and saw that the Jerry Buttimer is 9/2 against getting elected. I thought that good value and shoved my tenner fun bet on him. Mrs Lep bought into it too and gambled another tenner. We figure that SF and Greens would cost each other votes with FG to favourably pick up transfers.

Other suggestions in any constituency welcomed.
 
The next leader of this country will be from Cork and the one following that will probably be from Cork as well.
The alternative is a party with an Irish puppet leader which is run from the UK.

What's with all the foreigners running our country?
 
Purple said:
The next leader of this country will be from Cork and the one following that will probably be from Cork as well.
The alternative is a party with an Irish puppet leader which is run from the UK.

What's with all the foreigners running our country?
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Now Now What about the poster who a few years ago used to post he was born in the UK now saying he was born in Ireland, ,
I would say born in UK ,
Should feel at home under Mary loo, :)
 
josh8267 said:
Now Now What about the poster who a few years ago used to post he was born in the UK now saying he was born in Ireland, ,
I would say born in UK ,
Should feel at home under Mary loo, :)
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Wasn't Mary born in Dublin? Mind you what's she got to do with a conversation about the leadership of the Shinners.
 
Purple said:
Wasn't Mary born in Dublin? Mind you what's she got to do with a conversation about the leadership of the Shinners.
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Why are you trying so hard to make Mary Lou fit in when she was born to stand out,
If she can bring the pension fiasco back to the front pages a few days before polling ,not sure she has got what it takes to do so lots on hear will jet burned,
 
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