"My shares have fallen 30% what should I do?" "Is this a good time to invest in the stock market?"

moneymakeover said:
Companies like the cruise lines, air lines, plane manufacturers have all jumped up since March.
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Except the ones that have gone bust.

Ryanair is at it's highest point (or at least it was earlier in the week) in the last few years. I'd guess because some of the competition have gone out of business.
 
Sarenco said:
You are competing with professionals with far greater resources than you to pick stocks they believe will outperform the broader market.
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I'm under no illusions that I could possibly compete with professionals in trying to outperform the broader market.
So that is why I do not compete this way.
I identify companies that I consider are well managed, in good financial health and, in my opinion, in a good position to exploit growth opportunities in their respective industries. In such instances I consider taking a small stake. I have been doing this for about 5yrs and it is proving not only to be successful, but also much more fulfilling than having to rely on others to invest my money for me.

Think of it this way, some people have hobbies - in cars, antiques, art, sport, music etc which they invest a great deal of time and money indulging in. Sometimes to great cost, others to great reward. Either way they get can great personal fulfillment out of it.
I simply started to collect shares in companies that I think are good value. It is working well for me so far so I see no reason to do it any other way.
 
Sarenco said:
You are competing with professionals with far greater resources than you to pick stocks they believe will outperform the broader market.
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I came across this quote which I believe - it's from Charlie Ellis - an interesting fella

The evidence of investment managers' success with market timing is impressive - and overwhelmingly negative
 
im as of this weekend back to where i was ( portfolio valuation wise ) before the covid fuelled sell off in february , i didnt hold on to everything i had at the start of the year , in fact i bailed out of all three of them in april when my portfolio was down 30% , i was in two well known irish companies plus a well known social media company , all three had extremely sharp falls , especially the irish building materials company , a particular electric car maker and a well known irish bank brought me back to where i am

not a great lasting strategy and i intend to get out of both in the coming weeks and simply diversify more , could just as easily have seen both the bank and the auto maker go the other way , i did genuinely believe one was seriously over sold and the other on an unstoppable upward trojectory of cultish proportions , the september sell off was a big opportunity and i went in big

thinking of putting a sizeable chunk into the irish REIT,s , the on the ground market is very strong but the REIT,s are still quite depressed
 
@galway_blow_in what would your portfolio have done had you done nothing?

I personally sold 2 holdings in Apr in order to have cash on hand for some subsequent opportunities. Both holdings had been underperformers coming into the market highs in Feb. I used about 25% of the cash I generated to buy two further holdings, both up 50-60% since. However, the market came back so quick I wasn't able to get in at what I wanted at the time. Of the two I sold, one had recovered in line with the market, but the other is a few weeks from 2x'ing. I'm still looking at my cash :(
 
It’s funny, I have no idea how individual companies have done over the last while, other than snippets I pick up here and there. I just buy as much of a cheap global equity fund as the tax rules allow and avoid checking the value. Covid, trade wars, Brexit...I ignore them all. I couldn’t tell you how my fund has done over the last few years; in fact, I don’t think I’ve checked it during 2020. It’ll be interesting to see how my hassle-free strategy does over the 35 years I hope to be in it...versus fellas at their kitchen table trying to make sense of Tesla through the prism of accountancy
 
WolfeTone said:
That is weird indeed. You seem so confident of your strategy, yet you have no idea how it is performing.
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The fund more or less tracks the performance of global equities.

And, yes, I have confidence that 35 years of monthly investing in global equities should do very well.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
And, yes, I have confidence that 35 years of monthly investing in global equities should do very well.
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Don't get me wrong, I'm sure over such a timeframe you are correct. But there are poor performing equity funds. Just thought it odd not to check it occasionally, even once a year.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
And, yes, I have confidence that 35 years of monthly investing in global equities should do very well.
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Well you are unlikely to under perform the general market, unless the tracking error is bad, but that is it. I would not consider the base line to “do very well“. I’d expect a well balanced portfolio to out perform such an index over the long haul.
 
Hi Jim,

Jim2007 said:
I’d expect a well balanced portfolio to out perform such an index over the long haul.
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Your expectation is the polar opposite of mine.

SGWidow said:
The evidence of investment managers' success with market timing is impressive - and overwhelmingly negative
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I'd genuinely be interested in seeing authoritative data to support your assertion.

My big surprise this morning is learning that Gordon Gekko seems to turning his back of the value add of Wall Street types!
 
Itchy said:
@galway_blow_in what would your portfolio have done had you done nothing?

I personally sold 2 holdings in Apr in order to have cash on hand for some subsequent opportunities. Both holdings had been underperformers coming into the market highs in Feb. I used about 25% of the cash I generated to buy two further holdings, both up 50-60% since. However, the market came back so quick I wasn't able to get in at what I wanted at the time. Of the two I sold, one had recovered in line with the market, but the other is a few weeks from 2x'ing. I'm still looking at my cash :(
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It would be slightly lower as the construction materials company was my largest holding by a distance and its still below where it was at the beginning of this year

I'm not advocating what I did , im too heavy in a well known electric car company and will lighten up , in fact I sold 15% on Friday gone by
 
Gordon Gekko said:
It’s funny, I have no idea how individual companies have done over the last while, other than snippets I pick up here and there. I just buy as much of a cheap global equity fund as the tax rules allow and avoid checking the value. Covid, trade wars, Brexit...I ignore them all. I couldn’t tell you how my fund has done over the last few years; in fact, I don’t think I’ve checked it during 2020. It’ll be interesting to see how my hassle-free strategy does over the 35 years I hope to be in it...versus fellas at their kitchen table trying to make sense of Tesla through the prism of accountancy
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Find it extraordinary that someone could completely ignore fund movements in 2020, did you manage the same feat of discipline in 2008 ?
 
The MSCI World Index is up over 10%, year to date.

Anybody that bailed in March must be feeling pretty foolish...
 
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Jim2007 said:
Well you are unlikely to under perform the general market, unless the tracking error is bad, but that is it. I would not consider the base line to “do very well“. I’d expect a well balanced portfolio to out perform such an index over the long haul.
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What’s your basis for thinking that?

I’m amazed that you don’t think the base case for a 35 year investment in global equities is it doing “very well”.

And I believe you’re completely wrong to think that a balanced portfolio should outperform global equities over time. The opposite is the case.
 
galway_blow_in said:
Find it extraordinary that someone could completely ignore fund movements in 2020, did you manage the same feat of discipline in 2008 ?
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In 2008 I didn’t have enough invested for it to be relevant.

I obviously know markets fell significantly in March of this year and that they’ve recovered but I genuinely don’t know how much my fund fell in March or exactly how much it’s recovered because I don’t check it.

I believe that’s the recipe for success; invest in global equities, ignore the media and world events, and then get on with life.
 
Gordon Gekko said:
In 2008 I didn’t have enough invested for it to be relevant.

I obviously know markets fell significantly in March of this year and that they’ve recovered but I genuinely don’t know how much my fund fell in March or exactly how much it’s recovered because I don’t check it.

I believe that’s the recipe for success; invest in global equities, ignore the media and world events, and then get on with life.
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simple but unquestionably true
 
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