Market effects of new tax bands.
One of the relevant points the department insisted when asking for submissions is that changes be broadly revenue neutral.
These bands, both for road tax and VRT, have been calculated to deliver the same amount of money to the coffers from the punters. So the estimates will have presumed that if some new cars will be cheaper, others will be more expensive to make up the deficit.
So it is naive to imagine they will allow people to pick the cheaper tax system, depending if they are advantaged/disadvantaged.
The whole system is geared to encourage or coerce people to opt for less polluting vehicles and you have to respect that. However it will mean there will be plenty of anomalies to create headaches for the motor trade.
In particular the economical cars registered before July '08 will be stuck with the old higher road tax, and this will cause faster depreciation. Much faster. Second and third owners are much less forgiving of a high yearly road tax, maybe because they can't afford as much as the owner who bought new. Watch how little a dealer will offer to take a trade in of a high tax car!!
Another area that has potential for disaster is the cars that just manage to be above 225g/km. These will see yearly tax jumping from a potential €1000 to €2000. Again, the real headache in this will be the potential depreciation. All cars in this upper bracket can expect to drop in value like a stone.
Having checked over the CO2 figures for the present batch of cars, one future trend immediately jumps out. New car buyers who don't want to suffer this new artificial depreciation will have to strongly consider smaller diesel engined cars. The likes of 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.6 and some 1.8 turbodiesel cars will wipe the floor with the rest.
I'm glad I'm not a new car buyer.