PaddyPower goes 9 to 1 on a Yes, 9 to 2 against a No. For the uninitiated that means Paddy reckons the chances of a Yes are 83% (after allowing for his margin). Based on opinion polls I would have thought it would be much higher, so you might be right Sol28; come the date, things could change.The worry is that the people who are more than likely to Accept the ammendment are the very same people who wont vote. Those who oppose the referendum will turn up in greater numbers proportionally speaking.
Its not all an age thing - but the younger voters are more likely to vote Yes - and with the referendum in May - many university students will be in Exam mode and may not make it home to vote.
Me too, although a No has shortened in the odds (was 11/2) and the first Nice referendum was 11/2 for a No, so the bookies don't always get it right. I guess one reason they are running the gimmicky referendum on reducing the age floor for presidential election candidates to 21 (from 35) on the same day is to try to attract the younger voters who will also vote yes to same-sex marriage.I find Paddy to be much more reliable on these matters than the official pundits; when there is money at stake, biases and prejudices tend to go out the window.
I guess one reason they are running the gimmicky referendum on reducing the age floor for presidential election candidates to 21 (from 35) on the same day is to try to attract the younger voters who will also vote yes to same-sex marriage.
Yes there is the odd exception, but some recent classics are 1/6 Obama at the time of the last election and 1/6 a No in the Scottish Ref - in both cases the media were blaring "too close to call". Here's another one - you would think by all the hysteria that UKIP are on the verge of a Syriza style shock - the betting markets reckon they will get less than 5 of the 600 or so Westminster seats, still might hold the balance of course.Me too, although a No has shortened in the odds (was 11/2) and the first Nice referendum was 11/2 for a No, so the bookies don't always get it right. I guess one reason they are running the gimmicky referendum on reducing the age floor for presidential election candidates to 21 (from 35) on the same day is to try to attract the younger voters who will also vote yes to same-sex marriage.
And no inequality. I hope that they can continue to act in the best interest of each child unencumbered by the passing of this referendum, despite my concerns that the provision isn't as benign as is being suggested and that it will have unintended(?) consequences.
This constitutional amendment will mean that there is no difference between same-sex and opposite-sex marriage and therefore the gender of the would-be parents will be excluded as a consideration; the Adoption Authority will not be at liberty to favour a mother & father situation over father x2 or mother x2 set-ups.The Adoption Act obliges adoption services and the Adoption Authority to make decisions with the child's best interests and welfare as the paramount considerations.
Again you are deliberately mixing up two separate topics. The Adoption Act will mean that, notwithstanding any constitutional amendment to marriage, that prospective parents, heterosexual, homosexual, married or unmarried will be treated equally. The child's best interest is taken as the paramount value.This constitutional amendment will mean that there is no difference between same-sex and opposite-sex marriage and therefore the gender of the would-be parents will be excluded as a consideration; the Adoption Authority will not be at liberty to favour a mother & father situation over father x2 or mother x2 set-ups.
Yes, but that will be the case following the passing of the Adoption Act, whether or not the Marriage Equality referendum is passed or not.I'm not deliberately mixing up or trying to confuse anything. We have a different view on the implications of the proposed amendment. I have no doubt that your view is genuinely held and it's not my problem if you think my view is disingenuous. I fully agree that the child's best interest is (and will continue to be) taken as the paramount value however it seems glaringly obvious that post this referendum there can be no differentiation between heterosexual and homosexual marriage when weighing the child's best interest.
The proposed amendment will place constitutional handcuffs on the Adoption Authority to the effect that they will be unable to favour a mother & father situation over same-sex situation when considering best interest. This, allied with my view that civil partnership is a non-gender specific equivalent of the gendered institution of marriage, makes it a No from me.Why do you think there should be a differentiation between hetero and homo marriage in weighing up the child's best interest when you've already said that that interest is paramount?
The proposed amendment will place constitutional handcuffs on the Adoption Authority to the effect that they will be unable to favour a mother & father situation over same-sex situation when considering best interest. This, allied with my view that civil partnership is a non-gender specific equivalent of the gendered institution of marriage, makes it a No from me.
AAM is the first place I have seen a reasoned discourse on the Marriage Referendum.
From the threads ,
1. Adoption criteria remain very strict.
2. If carried, any solid couple can be considered as adoptees.
Means all couples are (graded) on what is best for the child.
I do not read opposition to the above.
I am taken with michaelm,s comment that marriage; by its understood nature is man & woman.
From my view I think to change the understood meaning of anything (marriage) is not fair to those who are already married ie man&woman.
Could the wording on the Referendum not have been changed to facilitate this?
I am very uncomfortable when something is to be changed under the blackmail verbiage of (equality.)
Could it again be our (leaders) jumped onto a Populist Bandwagon?
If so ,
from wishing to extend rights to couples, they may succeed in (de-righting) previous marriages?
And I am sure the Gay community are in no way in favour of discrimination. They understand discrimination.
Just raising it and would appreciate other views.
I think the 2nd referendum is a sop , smells of our (leaders) giving a little nod to constitutional change,(twits).
Again would appreciate other views.
This, allied with my view that civil partnership is a non-gender specific equivalent of the gendered institution of marriage, makes it a No from me.
Sol 28.Thats the issue - Civil Partnership is not the same as marriage - theres over a 100 different points of difference between both. When civil partnership was introduced it was a step forward - however - it actually enshrined discrimination. No mixed same couple can enter a civil partnership. No same sex couple can enter a marriage. It discriminates both ways.
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