T McGibney
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The first of those links is contemporary speculation: "The number of people leaving Ireland next year will outstrip those moving to the country for the first time in 14 years, according to Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin."
There is employment/seeking employment/inactivity in home/host country. That's a matrix of six cells and possible movement between any one to any other.But did all the Poles who were working construction just sign-on for the duration of the crash or did they leave?
You don't appear to understand my post.You don't seem to properly understand Godwin's Law.
How? It's not exactly cryptic.You don't appear to understand my post.
The 2011 census showed 123k people of Polish descent living here. Less than half the number who were issued PPS numbers from 2004 to 2007.It's impossible to generalise but the stereotype of Jarek the Polish plumber who arrived on 1 May 2004 and left in October 2009 when he lost his job does not have much basis in reality.
Because it's not 1851 when people got the boat to American and were never seen again! Lots of Polish people came for short periods of time and were replaced by other Polish people. You can get a job offer in Katowice and leave Dublin in the morning on a €50 Ryanair flight (or vice versa). Gross flows do not equal net flows. PPSNs are also issued to lots of people who have never and will never live in Ireland, for example for inheritance purposes.The 2011 census showed 123k people of Polish descent living here. Less than half the number who were issued PPS numbers from 2004 to 2007.
Even if there were zero Poles living here before May 2004 which we know is not the case, how do you account for 140k+ Poles failing to identify as such in the census?
I talked to someone who looked very closely at this issue at the time and said exactly this. I'm not sure if it was every published but basically he found that immigrants went to fill low-paid jobs in sectors being vacated by the natives who were leaving to work in construction which was much better paid. The 2004-2007 immigration spurt certainly fuelled the contruction boom which as you point out was well under way. On the supply side immigration freed up more native employment for construction, and on the demand side of course all these immigrants needed a roof.Our construction boom was almost a decade old when post-2004 accession state immigration became a significant phenomenon. From what I recall, the bulk of the new immigrants worked in the service sector and small manufacturing.
Ah, I get it. there was a massive increase in the number of Irish people leaving inheritance to Poles.PPSNs are also issued to lots of people who have never and will never live in Ireland, for example for inheritance purposes.
My point is that PPSNs are an imperfect measure of inward migration as there are other reasons to receive one other than employment. There can also be different patterns of employment for example EU nationals are more likely to come and go for seasonal employment than people from countries where you need a solid job offer in advance. So more PPSNs issued (flow) for the same population (stock) at the Census. For these reasons I tell people that drawing firm inferences based on PPSN data is hazardous.Ah, I get it. there was a massive increase in the number of Irish people leaving inheritance to Poles.
People come and go all the time. My point is that Polish people in Ireland (as a class, not specific individuals) did not display a visible decline after the housing bust.Put it a different way, where's the evidence saying that recently arrived foreign builders did not leave the country during the bust?
After the Crash in 09/10 the Irish that were coining it in the building game ie Trades etc have gone to Canada , Australia and found a much better lifestyle and will not return when income over the very modest lower tax bands is effectively 60% Tax , PRSI and USC . The country is also now loosing graduate nurses and teachers to foreign lands also as the public sector is not as appealing as it once was .My point is that PPSNs are an imperfect measure of inward migration as there are other reasons to receive one other than employment. There can also be different patterns of employment for example EU nationals are more likely to come and go for seasonal employment than people from countries where you need a solid job offer in advance. So more PPSNs issued (flow) for the same population (stock) at the Census. For these reasons I tell people that drawing firm inferences based on PPSN data is hazardous.
People come and go all the time. My point is that Polish people in Ireland (as a class, not specific individuals) did not display a visible decline after the housing bust.
Indeed.How? It's not exactly cryptic.
I don't believe it's perfect either, but I think you know that the vast majority of numbers issues go to people residing in the country seeking employment or benefits of some nature. Inheritance is very much an edge case.My point is that PPSNs are an imperfect measure of inward migration as there are other reasons to receive one other than employment.
The original point was specifically around construction workers, most of whom had arrived after May 2004. How many of them remained in 2008?My point is that Polish people in Ireland (as a class, not specific individuals) did not display a visible decline after the housing bust.
There's nothing new in that, the majority return. In 2020 alone some 29k Irish nationals who had previously emigrated returned home. We've been running a net inward migration since 2015, so some graduates choosing to leave for a while or even permanently shouldn't be a significant problem, especially with the numbers leaving significantly down in the last 10 years.The country is also now loosing graduate nurses and teachers to foreign lands also as the public sector is not as appealing as it once was .
Going to work in countries in the Middle East which have close to slave labour and are extremely oppressive is akin to going to work in Apartheid era South Africa. It is a morally reprehensible thing to do.There's nothing new in that, the majority return. In 2020 alone some 29k Irish nationals who had previously emigrated returned home. We've been running a net inward migration since 2015, so some graduates choosing to leave for a while or even permanently shouldn't be a significant problem, especially with the numbers leaving significantly down in the last 10 years.
Probably a lot of opposition in construction industry itself, which would lose a lot of work if more efficient ways of building became commonplace here. We are wedded to the building methods of 1820, not 2023The whole construction side of houses is still too labour intensive. I do wonder why we haven't embraced the modular homes more in this country.
They got other jobs.But did all the Poles who were working construction just sign-on for the duration of the crash or did they leave?
How do you explain the numbers leaving so?They got other jobs.
My point is that Poles didn't just work in construction. They worked in all kinds of sectors, and just like construction at least some who left those jobs would have moved to different sectors.How do you explain the numbers leaving so?
I'm sure some did, but the majority didn't stay as evidenced by the census data versus arrivals.My point is that Poles didn't just work in construction. They worked in all kinds of sectors, and just like construction at least some who left those jobs would have moved to different sectors.