House Market Weakening?

Status
Not open for further replies.
seems i mis read the figures , my bad , thanks for clearing that up 2pack
 
beattie said:
Yes that it a very good idea though I can't see anyone over here being as slick as Pacino. I would buy an apartment in Dublin from him
Click to expand...


There's a Pacino line that comes to mind from "Carlito's Way". Seems apt in view of what appears to be unfolding.
It's the point in the movie where he's trapped in the jax. He's about to make his escape and shouts: "Here come' the pain"
 
Colliers Jackson Stopps MD commented
'The current partners have retained a 40% share in the business because we are very excited by the opportunity which exists to further grow this company,'
Click to expand...
Wonder why they let the other 60% slip through their fingers? I'm not much of a mathematician, but surely 100% of the company would generate more growth and profit than 40%??
 
Glenbhoy said:
Wonder why they let the other 60% slip through their fingers? I'm not much of a mathematician, but surely 100% of the company would generate more growth and profit than 40%??
Click to expand...
owning over 51% of the share of a company means you run the whoe thing. No real point in buying the other 40%, it probably works better as incentive for the remaining staff who own the 40% to stay on.
 
micheller said:
Would anyone wager a bet as to when this will reach the masses?
Click to expand...

Spring 2007.

Why? That's when ECB interest rates are expected to reach 3.25% and general mortgage rates will head towards 4.5%. I think that will start to trigger the switch in investor sentiment as they try to consolidate capital gains.

Take an investor's IO mortgage for €350K

Look at the monthly repayments:

1. Dec 2005 - €962pcm
2. Jun 2006 - €1150pcm
3. Jan 2007 - €1300pcm (assumes ECB at 3.25%)

So they are looking at a rise of almost 40% in repayments when rents are growing at 5% max, if at all. Many investors I know are already subsidising their tenants rent to cover monthly outgoings (ah sure it is only €150 a month - I hardly notice it) , but if this gap starts to ratchet up and if they see some lack of certainty in capital appreciation, they are very likely to decide to sell.

This will mean less investor money propping up the bottom end of the market and in turn should lead to falls (or in EA/Developer speak - "Better incentives" ) for FTBs looking at new builds.

Still, expect price rises in the interim. And watch for truly terrifying borrowing statistics up until that point to fuel the rises. We are - after all - the most indebtted nation in Europe on a per capita basis.

We'll see how it plays out.
 
Neffa said:
and if they see some lack of certainty in capital appreciation, they are very likely to decide to sell. .
Click to expand...

Take away the expectation of capital appreciation and the Irish market will fall apart. How many buyers will there be when everyone knows prices have stopped going up? How many sellers? Gruesome.
 
I hope that it crashes before the election so that FF/PDs don't get re-elected. the reason being FF/PD will not acknowledge the problem was of their making and won't take the steps to fix it.
If the opposition get in after crash they have a mandate, no vested interests and no bruised pride preventing them from taking steps to bring the economy back to sanity and put it on a sound footing.
Last thing we need is bigger stamp duty breaks or FTB grants to try to sustain a bubble that needs to burst
 
walk2dewater said:
Take away the expectation of capital appreciation and the Irish market will fall apart. How many buyers will there be when everyone knows prices have stopped going up? How many sellers? Gruesome.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. This is where it starts to get really interesting. Media commentary is becoming much more bearish. Increasing inflation and interest rates over the next 12 months can only continue to add to this sentiment. The psychology of greed will eventually give way to a psychology of fear. Those most exposed will be in for a rough time.

 

I don't think it will. Expect a favourable budget in this regards in an attempt to offset rising inflation and interest rates. The last thing FF want to is for this to blow before the next election. Cowen has cash to spend and spend it he will. More fuel for the fire!
 

I know and I think Bertie will even bring the election forward specifically to avoid the downturn that everyone sees - ssia, giveaway budget, no stealth taxes and then let the punters enjoy the extra money that is in their pockets(briefly) before the hard times come in.
 
Duplex said:
Yes
Click to expand...

I thought so from your last comment becasue I had just read their latest article when I saw your post.

For anyone else who maybe hasn't come across iTulip.com they predicted and then chronicled the dot-com bust and returned this March to tackle the current asset bubbles.
 

What was it "a lot done,more to do" by the time these boys are finished the irish economy will be in ruins.To think i actually voted them in,i don't know who the bigger fools are.Me or them ?
 
thewatcher said:
What was it "a lot done,more to do" by the time these boys are finished the irish economy will be in ruins.To think i actually voted them in,i don't know who the bigger fools are.Me or them ?
Click to expand...

Hate to say it but I think you are - they knew what they were doing (short termism, populism, helping their builder mates), You obviously didn't know what you were doing when you voted for them - Oh Well.
 
darex said:
Hate to say it but I think you are - they knew what they were doing (short termism, populism, helping their builder mates), You obviously didn't know what you were doing when you voted for them - Oh Well.
Click to expand...

Didn't have the internet back in dem days,it's amazing what u learn when you go outside the mainstream media in ireland.Won't be making the same mistake twice,probably too late now anyway.Batton down the hatches i say,stormy sea's ahead.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Menu
Log in
Register