House Market Weakening?

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conor_mc said:
Imho, it's nothing short of blind optimism to expect the current immigration trends to continue to prop up over-inflated property prices once the citizens of the accession states are granted the right to work in any EU country of their choosing.
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Too true. In fact, who knows, we may even start emigrating ourselves in a few years ...
 
redo said:
Is suppose the real litmus test would be to find out how many developers are in the planning stages for a new apt schemes, considering the lead time it takes with planning, design etc.
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My brother is an architect and he says it is well accepted in the property developers that some of them are going to get seriously stung. They seem content to keep building hopeing not to be caught out. So I'm not sure looking for a slowdown in developer plans will help predict anything.

That being said hasn't the rate of increase in house completions slowed down?
[edit]whoa...[/edit]
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I think the figure for 2006 will be around 86,000 or something.
 
many people could sell up here and take the equity in their homes and live a very comfortable life in rest of europe and visit here a few times a year but people dont beleive anything negative lies ahead
 
whizzbang said:
They seem content to keep building hopeing not to be caught out. So I'm not sure looking for a slowdown in developer plans will help predict anything.
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That's true. Wasn't there a photographic exhibition once of the billions of dollars of unfinished apartment and office block shells after the crash of the asian tigers ? The construction dial was turned to '11' right to the bitter end.
 
whizzbang said:
My brother is an architect and he says it is well accepted in the property developers that some of them are going to get seriously stung. They seem content to keep building hopeing not to be caught out. So I'm not sure looking for a slowdown in developer plans will help predict anything.
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I have often wondered about this. The only logic to this is that they beleive that they are no more able to time the market that anyone else and that it is more profitable to keep building like crazy until the bust and take the hit at that point.
 
How significant would the [broken link removed]with respect to [broken link removed] + second hand market, be as an indicator of demand and supply coming into equilibrum? ( I have not been able to find any figures for 2nd hand houses.)
 
Interestingly a discussion on property prices has broken out on the "After hours" forum [edit]on boards.ie[/edit]. Is this an early sign of bearishness coming into the general population? Rather than just us cranks on the property boards?
 
Leedee said:
As with any market there are up's and down's, however the trend is your friend, and in this case the trend is definitely upwards and IMHO is destined to remained that way for some time. Ireland has the demographics to support the current housing stock boom and when the rest of Europe's economy gets its act together this can only be of benefit. but to say that the end is neigh by listing some random outlier examples (and possibly seasonal factors i.e. summer) is irresponsible to readers of posts on this site, causing distress and in a lot of cases financial expense.
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Is that you brian ?:) .Don't be blaming the messenger now !

"We should not be blinded by the inordinately positive gloss that the residential housing market is putting on most of our economic statistics.
Things are not quite as strong as first appearances might suggest. In the course of economic debate, it is amazing how unwilling many people are to countenance any degree of caution or negativity about the Irish economy.
The comments from the Taoiseach in last weekend's media would appear to suggest that it is national sabotage to question any aspect of the economy in a critical way.
We do not live in a command economy or a command society, and it should be in all of our better long-term interests to have the issues put on the table and discussed in a critical way, rather than shooting the messenger, which is something that there is a tendency to do.
Critical analysis should be encouraged, as should the 'vision thing'. Too many of our policies are now being set by focus groups rather than strategic thinking."
Jim Power is chief economist at Friends First

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1633493&issue_id=14207
 
whizzbang said:
Interestingly a discussion on property prices has broken out on the "After hours" forum. Is this an early sign of bearishness coming into the general population? Rather than just us cranks on the property board?
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*lol* I think whizzbang forgot which community he was posting on ;)
 
conor_mc said:
Just another point, if the German economy gets into gear anytime in the next 3-5 years, where do you think the thousands of Eastern European immigrants would rather be - stuck on an island with an ever-rising cost of living or just hopping across the border into Germany for work?

Imho, it's nothing short of blind optimism to expect the current immigration trends to continue to prop up over-inflated property prices once the citizens of the accession states are granted the right to work in any EU country of their choosing.
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And who exactly do you think is going to start buying all our exports when Europe picks up, its a two way street, they grow and so do we. Never seen so much negativity on a site, and I trust that all the contributors advocating a fall in prices have either sold or are in the process of selling their houses and putting the equity in a deposit account or are emigrating. And just maybe, the people who have moved to Ireland recently may actually like living here and decide to stay as it is not so easy to just "hop across the border" and put down roots all over again.
 
Leedee said:
I trust that all the contributors advocating a fall in prices have either sold or are in the process of selling their houses and putting the equity in a deposit account or are emigrating.
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or maybe they're waiting to buy a home at a sane price.... roll on the great Irish property sale!!
 
walk2dewater said:
or maybe they're waiting to buy a home at a sane price.... roll on the great Irish property sale!!
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Good luck, some people have been advocating that strategy since pre-1999!
 
Leedee said:
Good luck, some people have been advocating that strategy since pre-1999!
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its gonna come true sometime ;)

and I think with rates going up and personal debt at all time highs.. that'll be sometime soon.
 
Leedee said:
Good luck, some people have been advocating that strategy since pre-1999!
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and it's 2006 now, the aul boom gettin a bit long in the tooth...
 
whizzbang said:
its gonna come true sometime ;)

and I think with rates going up and personal debt at all time highs.. that'll be sometime soon.
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good for you, and if that strategy doesn't work, drop me a line and I will put you in touch with some people who will be able to put you up!
 
Leedee said:
good for you, and if that strategy doesn't work, drop me a line and I will put you in touch with some people who will be able to put you up!
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thanks! free rent means I can save more for after the crash ;)
 
Leedee said:
...and so is all this negativity.
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There will always be positivity and negativity, its just depends on which one is getting the headline. At the monent it is still mostly positive, someday it will be mostly negative.
 
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