House Market Weakening?

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Probably making too much out of the last week.... the weather may be significant as who likes to view property when the sun is out for one of its rare occasions?
 
Solutions said:
Probably making too much out of the last week.... the weather may be significant as who likes to view property when the sun is out for one of its rare occasions?
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I would have thought Estate Agents would have been pushing to get people to view! houses tend to look much better in the sun! Especially if they have a garden.

Or maybe they have forgotten how to push a property as opposed to just waiting for offers?
 
Interesting article in the SBP yesterday:
[broken link removed]

Also, another article regarding inflation and the risks to the economy. More fuel to the slowdown or nothing that will bash the irish confidence in property?
 
micheller said:
Interesting article in the SBP yesterday:
[broken link removed]

Also, another article regarding inflation and the risks to the economy. More fuel to the slowdown or nothing that will bash the irish confidence in property?
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Very interesting article alright. This could definitly be the pin that bursts the bubble. I don't think FTB will be able to cover a shortfall of €100,000 with loans from parents and credit unions etc.
 
Yeah, 100K is a lot to make up. I just can't see it being pratical.
I can't see how there's too many people in a position to gift/loan their kids 100K. Maybe when the deposits started rising with the house prices- helping out with 10-20K, but 100K?
 
yeah but people will still buy but just go for an apartment rather than a house and meath rather than dublin.
 
bearishbull said:
yeah but people will still buy but just go for an apartment rather than a house and meath rather than dublin.
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so how will Dublin people upgrade if no-one will buy their house?
 
micheller said:
Yeah, 100K is a lot to make up. I just can't see it being pratical.
I can't see how there's too many people in a position to gift/loan their kids 100K. Maybe when the deposits started rising with the house prices- helping out with 10-20K, but 100K?
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unless parents start releasing equity to fund it, yuk, what a horrid house of cards that would be. Things go belly up, everyone is out on the street.
 
What we see unfolding in the Irish housing market mirrors what happened in the US market last summer. Falling clearance rates at auctions are an early indicator that the supply of greater fools may be drying up. Given the levels of consumer debt and the probability that the cost of borrowing will rise through the remainder of the year a slowdown in the market is likely to be seen in the autumn. Rising inventories and builders offering incentives will be signs that the top has arrived. I think that by this time next year the housing market will be on the turn.
 
Duplex said:
What we see unfolding in the Irish housing market mirrors what happened in the US market last summer. Falling clearance rates at auctions are an early indicator that the supply of greater fools may be drying up. Given the levels of consumer debt and the probability that the cost of borrowing will rise through the remainder of the year a slowdown in the market is likely to be seen in the autumn. Rising inventories and builders offering incentives will be signs that the top has arrived. I think that by this time next year the housing market will be on the turn.
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I still think the ECB will have to be at 3.5% before it turns, there is still too much hype for it to turn as the sentiment is still there that prices will continue rising IMO.
 
Duplex said:
Falling clearance rates at auctions are an early indicator that the supply of greater fools may be drying up.
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and in Australia this time 2 years back.

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/06/16/1087244951826.html?from=moreStories

Rising inventories and builders offering incentives will be signs that the top has arrived. I think that by this time next year the housing market will be on the turn.
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Correct, keep an evil eye on allowances. If a €300k flat has €10k of allowances today and €20k next month and €30k the following month then you know they cannot shift them and must grease the pot to move them .

An increase of allowances of 20k on a 300k flat is a nominal discount of 6.5% and a hard discount (allowances are crap value so why not just ask for the cash upfront instead :D ) of 4% or so .
 
beattie said:
I still think the ECB will have to be at 3.5% before it turns, there is still too much hype for it to turn as the sentiment is still there that prices will continue rising IMO.
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It looks like that is where the ECB rates will be next summer (certainly they will be at least at 3.25%), so I think I agree with Duplex's scenario. The other issue is that the SSIA money will have flushed through the economy by then so it won't be able to act as a support any longer.
 
according to this http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=51532092

the ECB president said during a webchat that the ECB intended to normalise rates at 4.5% by end of next yearish

does that sound about right to anyone here?

btw: before anyone asks the guy who posted that is looking for the link to the transcript of the webchat
 
Also keep an eye on the continued thrashing of Irish financial shares.

Might be plenty of credit and willing borrowers to keep house prices moving upwards for a bit longer but watching how investors view these shares is instructive. Investors do not appear to be believing the hype regarding our "unstoppable" housing market.

This board does not permit discussion of individual shares, but the four big institutions with heavy property interests are
down:
-9%
-13%
-12%
-18%

from their march highs. These are quite severe corrections.

Interesting to note that the bank with the least severe fall has been a little more prudent with regards to property. It does not engage in 100% mortgages and has been selling property rather than buying.
 
Yes, it's also the bank that commonly asks for guarantors when other banks don't. Though their main competitor is selling property now too.
 
the ECB president said during a webchat that the ECB intended to normalise rates at 4.5% by end of next yearish
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Rubbish. He wouldn't say this, even if it was his intent.
 
indeed thought it would be a bit strange for him to say something like that alright
 
these auctions are at top end of the market which are usually bought by richer more financially savvy people,i dont see any slowdown in the below 2million part of market but maybe they should follow the example of the richer more savy "investors"
 
bearishbull said:
these auctions are at top end of the market which are usually bought by richer more financially savvy people,i dont see any slowdown in the below 2million part of market but maybe they should follow the example of the richer more savy "investors"
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Studies have shown that when property markets turn the top end of the market falls first.
 
Studies have shown that when property markets turn the top end of the market falls first.
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I know someone who bought at auction in the past month, the guide was 850K, withdrawn at 970K, the vendor said they were'nt prepared to let it go below 1.1m, after a an hour they sold for 985k.
With regards to the top end of the market going first, I remember a bank manager telling me 3 years ago that the top end was very sluggish and that prices were at best static. I would have thought it would be the bottom of the market where the market would fall first, this the next level up to be starved of buyers and so on.....
 
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