House Market Weakening?

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bearishbull said:
anyone know how many properties per thousand population we have now then?
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I looked into this a while back when the papers were telling us that there were 391 properties per 1000 people which is well below the European average of 425 or something like that. What the papers neglected to mention was that on average Irish houses were much bigger than the european counter parts and we had a much higher "Rooms per 1000 population" than the rest of Europe. I think we has 1890 rooms per thousand people and europe had on average 1400 per thousand. Something around that.

Unfortunatly I can't find the damn stats I used to look into this the last time! If anyone can find the site that gives the "houses per thousand" stats for Europe please let me know!
 
whizzbang said:
I looked into this a while back when the papers were telling us that there were 391 properties per 1000 people which is well below the European average of 425 or something like that. What the papers neglected to mention was that on average Irish houses were much bigger than the european counter parts and we had a much higher "Rooms per 1000 population" than the rest of Europe. I think we has 1890 rooms per thousand people and europe had on average 1400 per thousand. Something around that.

Unfortunatly I can't find the damn stats I used to look into this the last time! If anyone can find the site that gives the "houses per thousand" stats for Europe please let me know!
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If we're building circa 80,000 units per year then that's an increase of 20 units per 1000 people every year so surely we've caught up by now, or are in the process of doing so in the very near future.
 
1.8m units (census forms given out) for 4m population is 450 units per 1000 . We are above the European Average. Even if our population were 4.1m it would correspond to 439 units per 1000 persons or so.

We are well housed so we are and have more houses than the average european .
 
I think the most likely reason for so many census forms not filled in was not empty houses but people (like me) who don't answer the door for these things.
 
Chamar said:
I think the most likely reason for so many census forms not filled in was not empty houses but people (like me) who don't answer the door for these things.
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A laudable attitude. These things occur so often they're a real nuisance at this stage.

One point though, are you suggesting that Ireland trumps other countries in breeding substantially more apathetic census-filler-in'ers?
 
I think the most likely reason for so many census forms not filled in was not empty houses but people (like me) who don't answer the door for these things.
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And then we complain about the lack of schools/poor infrastructure........
 
SidTheDweeb said:
A laudable attitude. These things occur so often they're a real nuisance at this stage.

One point though, are you suggesting that Ireland trumps other countries in breeding substantially more apathetic census-filler-in'ers?
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No, not a nuisance, just the government wasting money as usual. As for your second point I don't have the international figures to hand for comparison, but as we do it every 5 years I'd say we are more apathetic yes.
 
Chamar said:
I think the most likely reason for so many census forms not filled in was not empty houses but people (like me) who don't answer the door for these things.
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Did'ya read the article ?

Following inquiries among neighbours, postmen and women and apartment block management companies, the vast majority of those dwellings - some 275,000 - were identified as being vacant.

In a further 30,000 cases, there was nobody at home when census officials called on various occasions.
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Chamar said:
No, not a nuisance, just the government wasting money as usual.
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Absolutely. If they have to have a census, why don't they just contract out to the private sector via TalkTalk cold-callers and Polish portrait-sellers? Or just use the phone book??
 
madisona said:
I doubt that this is the case. There is a demand for rental properties. even allowing for the fact that some of these 280,000 are tax designated properties in the middle of nowhere. There is a strong rental market in all the cities. Bear in mind as well that low paid workers in Ireland unlike in many other countries are often unable to afford to rent a place on their own, leading to the irish phenemonmen of shared houses and flats i.e sharing a property with several more or less strangers in the same situation.

Which leads to the question. If speculators are choosing to leave properties vacant is this part of the governments strategy of keeping rent levels high ( relative to working class wages. e.g a minimun wage worker in dublin on €1200 a month would probably have to pay close to 100% of his wages if he wanted to rent a one bed place of his own (with the luxury of bathroom and living area) )

Are there tax benefits available for a speculator who is paying an interest only morgage and chooses to leave the property vacant, even when there is demand for the property which would cover say 50% of his repayments? i.e is the government encouraging speculators to leave properties vacant?
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You have a point; many thousands of these properties may be Section 23 etc. tax ghost towns. But still, we have enough empty property in this country to accommodate 800,000 souls. Beyond bizarre.
 
Duplex said:
You have a point; many thousands of these properties may be Section 23 etc. tax ghost towns.
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These are localised to the north shannon and seaside resorts and are at most in the 10s of thousands not the 100s of thousands. The argument only applies to places like Carrick on Shannon or Ballymote or Enniscrone and not really to the large towns or the cities.

I know of estates in Doughiska in Galway city which are not tax designated at all but where the investors have sat on empties for years because they 'made more' on capital appreciation and could not be bothered renting them out.

Thats where the overhang is, in Carrick they wont dump because they will lose their tax writeoff. In Galway they will. The number of EXCESS planning applications (not all were granted and some were for more than one house) (page 4 of link > > ) [broken link removed]and over 5 years . This indicates maybe 20,000 EXCESS units built in Sligo/Roscommon/Leitrim .

God help the property market there when the tax break runs out in a few years time :D
 
did anyone hear the report on Newstalk this morning that the ECB are potentially planning a .25% rise next month followed by another .25% August and if they do follow this route they will possibly opt for a .50% rise in August instead as they're having trouble controlling inflation

what would peoples thoughts be on the possibility / plausibility of this?
 
Would seem very early to go again, I thought after reading it that it was the germans letting off some steam as there wasn't a 50bp rise earlier this month. Either way pain is coming down the tracks sooner than many would have thought a year ago.

I expect some commentary from bulls quite soon to assuage any fears that the property buying public may have..........:D
 
miju said:
did anyone hear the report on Newstalk this morning that the ECB are potentially planning a .25% rise next month followed by another .25% August and if they do follow this route they will possibly opt for a .50% rise in August instead as they're having trouble controlling inflation

what would peoples thoughts be on the possibility / plausibility of this?
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Sounds unlikely to me. Trichet's language seemed to suggest a continuation of the 0.25% rises, rather than the shock of a 0.5% rise. Though, admittedly it's open to interpretation. If I had to put money down, I'd bet on the base rate being 3.25% by January of next year at the latest.

If there is a 0.25% rise next month it is extremely unlikely that it would be followed by 0.5% rise the following month, that level of extremity could easily tank the eurozone economy, sparking a recession. Trichet has already warned that he expects overall growth to slow from 2% to 1.8% as a result of the rises.
 
room305 said:
Sounds unlikely to me. Trichet's language seemed to suggest a continuation of the 0.25% rises, rather than the shock of a 0.5% rise. Though, admittedly it's open to interpretation.
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Has anything significantly changed in the Euro zone since the last rise? I know Germany is upping its VAT rate 3% (largest increasae since the war). Is there anything else to signify inflation is a fear? any new figures released?

Maybe they were not expecting to rise in July when they rose in June but some new data has come to light that has made them change their mind?
 
Very aggressive tones on interest rates in the last day or two from all around our inflated globe.

Statements from the ECB in particular indicating a possible .25% hike sooner than expected in July and this resulted in about a billion euro being wiped off the bank-heavy ISEQ in the opening minutes today.
 
whizzbang said:
Has anything significantly changed in the Euro zone since the last rise? I know Germany is upping its VAT rate 3% (largest increasae since the war). Is there anything else to signify inflation is a fear? any new figures released?

Maybe they were not expecting to rise in July when they rose in June but some new data has come to light that has made them change their mind?
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Data from Germany shows that producer prices were up 6.2% yoy in May - the most since 1982. This has been accelerating for the last few months.

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10006274.shtml
 
More signs that sentiment in the media is beginning to go bearish. The Irish Independent website [broken link removed] has a poll entitled "Do you think homeowners are being put under too much pressure" You can also post your comments on this topic.
 
relative to to the 1970s and 1980s European inflation does appear to be well contained. But the ECB looks at more than the headline inflation rate in determining the appropiate level of interest rates. The ECB is also reportedly concerned at the rate of money growth in the eurozone - money growth is running at 8% on an annualized basis (anD probably substantially more in Ireland). Thus whilst the headline rate of inflation is beginning to creep up the world's central banks are beginning to reign in the excess liquidity that has been responsible for amongst other things the surge in property values all over the developed world.

Remember that at 2.75% the ECB rate is still highly stimulative (with inflation adjusted interest rates barely 0.5%) and the goal will be to move interest rates to a more neutral rate - thought to be 3.5%/4% in Europe.

Monetary authorities have to look forward to the expected inflation rate, not at the trailing headline rate that is already several months out of date.
 
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