General Election odds from Paddy Power

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Alex White and Alan Shatter were always at risk, so the odds for them were fair enough.

But I don't think anyone was speculating that Jimmy Deenihan or James Reilly would lose their seats.

Brendan
 
thedaddyman said:
Ivan Yates predictions on Newstalk are as follows. These are based on a constituency by constituency basis. Seemingly he called 90% of it correct last time round
FG= 51 (actual 50)
FF = 39 (44)
SF = 29 (23)
Lab =7 correct
AAA BPP =6 correct
Ind alliance = 6 correct
SDs= 3 correct
Greens = 2 correct
Inds =15 (17)
Renua=0 correct
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I think we will give Ivan 9 outa 10 for that:)

He loses the 1 though for his only blemish - he underestimated the last minute shift from SF to FF. Possibly MMs strong attacks on GA in the debates paid off.

In fact the shift from SF to FF is the main "shock" of this election. We have known for some years that the Government were in for a hammering compared to 2011 and that SF and Inds would be on the rise.

I found some of RTE's coverage simplistic. Part of their narrative was "big gains for SF". And of course Mary Lou et al made the most of it talking about earthquakes etc. but the reality is they must be sorely disappointed in this the centenary year.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I found some of RTE's coverage simplistic. Part of their narrative was "big gains for SF". And of course Mary Lou et al made the most of it talking about earthquakes etc. but the reality is they must be sorely disappointed in this the centenary year.
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You must have been watching a different RTE from what I watched!

Every time they interviewed a SF person, they said "You must be very disappointed that you didn't do as well as you expected." to the frustration of the SF guys who had increased their vote by about 50%.

Brendan
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I think we will give Ivan 9 outa 10 for that:)
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That is amazingly accurate.

I did not think Greens two and Renua none. Though I suppose if you were calling Eamon Ryan, you were probably calling against Lucinda.

He got the FF and SF seats wrong, but not nearly as wrong as the rest of the forecasters.

Amazing that he wasn't able to make money as a bookie.

Brendan
 
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