General Election odds from Paddy Power

[Brendan Burgess]

they have very low win limits , so I wouldn't put too much effort into figuring it ,

Thanks I had not realised that.

Betfair seems to be forecasting 31 for FF while Paddy Power says 34. I think that FF will do better, so if there were big odds on something like 40, I would take them.

Brendan

 

[michaelm]

I think Labour to win under 10.5 seats @ 5/6 is a good bet (was 11/10 at one point), and the Greens under 0.5 seats @ 5/2 is worth an interest (both with Paddy Power).

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Not sure about the Greens bet. The Greens got around 15% in the local elections in this constituency. That would be enough first preferences for a seat in a 4 seater, which is why he is 1/3




Who is going to beat him? It would have to be two out of Kevin Humphries, Kate O'Connell or Chris Andrews with an outside chance of a FF recovery putting in Jim O'Callaghan.

And a lot of people have gone off Lucinda as well. So it's very hard to know. I probably wouldn't bet against him at 5/2.

Brendan

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Kenny was absolutely adamant last night that he would not share power with FF.

So I can't reconcile that PP has FG/FF coalition hotter than ever at 6/5 after the debate and Kenny an unbackable 1/25 to be the next teashop.

 

[44brendan]

Both Kenny and Martin have no option but to put this issue to bed now or it will dominate the pre election headlines and lose both parties votes. Once the count is over and the numbers are in decisions will have to be made which are "unpalatable" to all parties. This is the reality of politics.
If the numbers are such that the only viable & sustainable Gov'mt is a FF/FG coalition (agreement as in Tallaght strategy) then both of them can legitimately say that they are forced into this for the sake of stability.
To be fair I have some sympathy for this as the press will not leave the issue alone and no party can be definitive about what they will do if/when their options are extremely limited.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I can buy into the idea that the next government will be a FG/FF coalition, there doesn't seem any other mathematical possibility. But after that very definitive statement surely Henda cannot lead that coalition. If FG do badly, say less than 50 seats, but still the biggest party, I can see pressure on Henda to resign (after all he is eligible for the OAP) and that could square the circle. I think Coveney at 20/1 to be next teashop is worth a punt.

 

[Purple]

I think Coveney at 20/1 to be next teashop is worth a punt.

While that seems frightening could he be worse that Henda?

 

[newirishman]

Kenny was absolutely adamant last night that he would not share power with FF.

So I can't reconcile that PP has FG/FF coalition hotter than ever at 6/5 after the debate and Kenny an unbackable 1/25 to be the next teashop.

I wouldn't be surprised if Kenny wouldn't matter anymore to FG (or anyone else) after the next election, so whatever he says or will have said during the election campaign might be wholly irrelevant. That's my read from the odds anyway.

 

[Purple]

What about Varadkar as the next teashop?
I love the idea of an openly gay man in charge of the party which was the traditional bastion of the conservatives in this country.

 

[T McGibney]

What about Varadkar as the next teashop?
I love the idea of an openly gay man in charge of the party which was the traditional bastion of the conservatives in this country.

What has he done to deserve appointment as Taoiseach? Apart from being gay and annoying all those nasty conservatives, like.

 

[Purple]

What has he done to deserve appointment as Taoiseach? Apart from being gay and annoying all those nasty conservatives, like.

He answers questions directly, is articulate and intelligent, won't embarrass us on an international stage and has sufficient political judgement to be health minister without destroying his reputation. The bar is set very low for political leaders but he looks like a good option. Michael Martin does as well but he's in FF and so has too much baggage.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

What about Varadkar as the next teashop?
I love the idea of an openly gay man in charge of the party which was the traditional bastion of the conservatives in this country.

Well yeah. He is 14/1. But again that is slightly inconsistent with the odds on next FG leader which is 2/1 Var, 9/4 Cov i.e. almost identical, so Cov looks better value at 20/1. There is money to be made here. You just need the imagination to picture the landscape after the election. Given this morning's polls here is a possible scenario.

FG 50 - seen as a big failure and pressure on Henda
FF 35 - Micháel Martin would seem safe for a while after that result
SF 25 - doesn't really matter, they don't figure in any of the possible government combinations
Lab 12 - pressure on Joan (might even lose her seat) but they don't seem to figure in the arithmetic
Smaller parties and independents - again with FG so low, there isn't a realistic arithmetic combination

So what would happen? A second GE seems likely as I don't think we are quite ready for a FF/FG coalition, but after a confirmation of the result there is more credibility is claiming a FF/FG coalition is what the people want. But Henda would surely have to resign as leader of FG and so too possibly would Joan of Labour - otherwise it would just be a re-run like the Nice and Lisbon Treaties. So who would be elected as leader of FG? It might depend on their respective constituency performances. Maybe FG grass roots aren't quite so modern minded as we think.

Yes that 20/1 against Cov looks good. You saw it here first folks.

 

[michaelm]

I think Labour to win under 10.5 seats @ 5/6 is a good bet (was 11/10 at one point), and the Greens under 0.5 seats @ 5/2 is worth an interest (both with Paddy Power).

Not sure about the Greens bet. The Greens got around 15% in the local elections in this constituency. That would be enough first preferences for a seat in a 4 seater, which is why he is 1/3

Ryan is now out to 5/2 to steal a seat (Greens under 0.5 seats in to 8/15). Labour is now 5/6 for under 7.5 seats . . we might be able to count them on one hand come Saturday.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Yes, the Millward Brown poll of this constituency changed the odds considerably.

"The poll of the four seat constituency shows Fine Gael's Eoghan Murphy on 20 per-cent, followed by Sinn Fein's Chris Andrews on 17% with Renua leader Lucinda Creighton and Labour's Kevin Humphreys both on 13%.

Fianna Fail's Jim O'Callaghan is on 11%, with Kate O'Connell of Fine Gael on 10% followed by Eamon Ryan of the Greens on 7%."

The Labour candidates got around 18% in the last local elections between them. Kevin Humphries' son got 3.66% of the vote which suggests that he does not have a huge personal vote. But Dermot Lacey also stood for Labour and he would have a very strong local vote.

The 4 FF candidates got around 15% between them at the last local elections.

The Greens got 10%.

Sinn Féin got 9% - Chris Andrews got 15% in his own ward. He got 11% of the votes when standing for FF in the last election.

I am really surprised that Eamon Ryan is only 7%. He has a good public profile.

I have no idea how reliable these constituency polls are. A poll carried out by the Labour Party in this constituency around 6 months ago had Kevin Humphreys topping the poll and Lucinda Creighton in real trouble.


I would say that the only predictable seat is Eoghan Murphy. Any of the others mentioned above could win a seat although if Lucinda Creighton is ahead of Kate O'Connell on the first preferences, I can't see FG winning two seats.

 

[thedaddyman]

Ivan Yates predictions on Newstalk are as follows. These are based on a constituency by constituency basis. Seemingly he called 90% of it correct last time round
FG= 51
FF = 39
SF = 29
Lab =7
AAA BPP =6
Ind alliance = 6
SDs= 3
Greens = 2
Inds =15

on that basis,

• an FG/Lab/SD/Green Rainbow alliance would require support of nearly all of the independents,
• an FF/FG coalition would have the numbers providing there are no significant splits in FF as a result (Personally I'd feel the likes of O'Cuiv would try and start a "real" FF). Hence I think they would also look to do a deal with the Lowrys/Healy Rays of this world or perhaps bring in the SD's as well.
• an FF/SF/Lab coalition could do it with the support of the smaller parties or some independents.

None of them look remarkably stable to be honest but stranger things have happened.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Seemingly he called 90% of it correct last time round

I wonder what that means?

Did he get 90% of the constituencies exactly right? That would be impressive. Some are predictable, but the final seat is usually very difficult to decide.

Brendan

 

[thedaddyman]

I wonder what that means?

Did he get 90% of the constituencies exactly right? That would be impressive. Some are predictable, but the final seat is usually very difficult to decide.

Brendan

He was forecasting actual TDs (ie names) of who was going to be elected in each const and I understand this is what he did last time as well. They are all up on the Newstalk website if you wanted to listen. The 90% is his claim.

 

[T McGibney]

Shane Ross' proverbial monkey could predict 90% of who's going to be elected. We have 40 constituencies with an average 4 seats each. In many or most, 3 of the 4 (or 2 of the 3, or 4 of 5) are very easy to predict. That's 75% for starters. A series of blind guesses should on average get half the remainder correct. That brings you to 87.5%.

 

[MrEarl]

.....None of them look remarkably stable to be honest but stranger things have happened.

Hey, we're Irish, everyone has a price !

 

[thedaddyman]

I wonder what odds you would have got on Jimmy Deenihan, James Riley, Alan Shatter and Alex White all losing their seats? 4 Ministers or former ministers culled.