General Election odds from Paddy Power

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Brendan Burgess

Brendan Burgess

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Here are the odds for the next Government:

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Here are their forecasts for the numbers of seats:

Fine Gael: 58
Fianna Fail: 33
Sinn Féin:23
Labour:10
Other: 32
 
Based on those numbers (which are hard to dispute, SF might get a handful more) the only viable government is a FG/FF coalition.
 
The_Banker said:
Based on those numbers (which are hard to dispute, SF might get a handful more) the only viable government is a FG/FF coalition.
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Yep, and that isn't going to happen unless FF want to disappear as a party over the next 5 years.
Could be another rainbow coalition.
 
Purple said:
Could be another rainbow coalition.
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That was 3 parties. FG + Lab would still be 11 seats short on those numbers, where would they get those seats from? FG/Lab/SDems/Renua probably still wouldn't have enough, maybe add in the Shane Ross Collective, but realistically how long would such a government last...
 
Don't wish for the loony left under any circumstances. This happened in Cyprus a few years ago and led to the collapse there.
 
Mick Wallace is expected to romp home again in Wexford but apparently he won't poll as well as he did in 2011 because he hasn't done enough " on the ground " in Wexford. :D
 
demoivre said:
Mick Wallace is expected to romp home again in Wexford but apparently he won't poll as well as he did in 2011 because he hasn't done enough " on the ground " in Wexford. :D
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That's the media spin.

The reality is that he doesn't even live there (he lives in Clontarf) and has made many enemies in is home county.
 
Dr.Debt said:
Don't wish for the loony left under any circumstances. This happened in Cyprus a few years ago and led to the collapse there.
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I dunno. At least we'd be done with it once & for all *






* Let me get me house valued first though
 
Just looking at the odds for my own constituency and the odds for the candidates are way off the wall. A huge odds on favourite might not be elected.
 
Dermot said:
Just looking at the odds for my own constituency and the odds for the candidates are way off the wall.
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I have wondered about that. If you are out canvassing and know your local constituency well or if you have access to a good private poll, you might be able to catch the bookies.

But if you are canvassing for someone, maybe your judgement isn't that independent.
 
These are novelty markets offered by PaddyPower and Betfair Sportsbook , they have very low win limits , so I wouldn't put too much effort into figuring it , even if you found some value you be hard pressed to get a decent stake on in shops or online.
 
Just looked at a few constituencies that I would have a good feel for and while I would agree that the first 4 in a 5 seater would be pretty accurate the odds are just to essentially put off people betting on them. They will more than likely make it but the odds are ridiculous. The only area for a gamble might be for the last seat in a lot of the cases.
I not a political activist in any way or a gambler with the bookies. Just a basic interest.
 
T McGibney said:
That's the media spin.

The reality is that he doesn't even live there (he lives in Clontarf) and has made many enemies in is home county.
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It's the word on the ground in Wexford where I live. He had plenty of enemies in 2011 too !!!
 
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