bearishbull
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Neffa said:There was a supplement with the Irish Times yesterday with a commentary from HOK on residential and commercial prices.
One of the things which really threw me was that they claim that for the average purchase in Ireland for residential, only 65% is actually borrowed. This seems incredibly low to me - if it were true, then the risk of negative equity in the event of a correction would be much lower.
Can anyone explain/back this up? Is it equity withdrawal funding investment purchases being counted as "deposit" money? Or are large deposits common and not reported much?
....and I'm not getting drawn into the semantics debate again.....!
bearishbull said:its an average ,i wouldnt read too much into it,obviously if you trade up to a bigger more expensive house and have large amount of equity in old home you may only need a mortgage for 50% of new houses price.
tiger said:- people who are buying property at €400-500K upwards are probably trading up & have significant equity.
Loki said:Isn't the average house price in Dublin about €400 (€380)? I wouldn't think that price range is the big group trading up.
But FTBs aren't the only people buying houses so what does that have to do with it? People buying buying are people buying. I find it strange how everybody here assumes from the lowest level. One minute the investors are increasing prices and the next the only people buying property are FTBs! Not saying you tiger but it seems to be the waytiger said:the most money most first time buyers would be able to get would be for a €400K property, .
That would be semantics but as that is what it is called by the banks you understand what I am saying unlike a bubble that is a claim of an actual event happening. A property bubble has a scientifc definition. The financial aspect is you can do it and make money with a relatively small risk. These maybe the investors people complain about pushing up the price. You can have tow families with the same income with one family paying more on their mortgage for one house than somebody who owns 4 houses. Even if prices crash the guy with 4 houses is better off in the long run in all likely events.Duplex said:Back to semantics again, sorry.
There is only one way to ‘release’ equity from an asset that is by selling it, i.e. you don’t pay interest on equity. ‘Equity release’ (marketing flannel phrase) is a loan/debt secured against the notional value of the asset; you will pay interest on this debt.
PS
I’m watching a sample housing estate approx. 20 miles from Dublin. Large estate built in the late 90’s early 00’s, uniform housing type. My comparable evidence is showing an average 23.5% increase in asking prices yoy.
IlluminatingLoki said:People buying buying are people buying.
I'm not really interested in what some estate agents do - but I will say this - if someone wants to sell a property at 275KE and advertises it at "offers in excess of 230KE" to draw the punters in then I think they're lying.Loki said:Asking prices are not what they will sell the house at but what price they market the houses at to sell it. They range from 20% below expected price to 20% above. It depends on what level of the market you are buying. Some estate agents will tell you what it is as a rule of thumb they use.
Loki said:But FTBs aren't the only people buying houses so what does that have to do with it?
lol typing estateCalina said:Illuminating
That's nice but what you think about the world you live in really means nothing. It isn't lying but misleading at worst. As I said the estate agents will tell you so not exactely lying.Calina said:I'm not really interested in what some estate agents do - but I will say this - if someone wants to sell a property at 275KE and advertises it at "offers in excess of 230KE" to draw the punters in then I think they're lying.
And I don't much like liars. The fact that it might be standard practice doesn't make me like it any more.
tiger said:That's what I was saying, using my "calculations" most people buying at the €400-500K up level would have to be trading up or have equity/resources from somewhere else.
I think threads are getting crossed here
Calina said:Illuminating
I'm not really interested in what some estate agents do - but I will say this - if someone wants to sell a property at 275KE and advertises it at "offers in excess of 230KE" to draw the punters in then I think they're lying.
And I don't much like liars. The fact that it might be standard practice doesn't make me like it any more.
CCOVICH said:Let's keep it on topic.
walk2dewater said:Hmm I'd say, up a lot this year, up some more next year etc,
Was at a viewing today where the "latest offer" went up 18 thousand euro in the space of about ten minutes. Walked away because I've slightly different definitions of "turnkey condition" and "you can just move right in" plus other issues relating to the property.sonar said:You're darn toutin' they will.
In fact, I already pushed prices up 5% on a street in Dublin in just a couple of hours last week.
I found a house I really liked that had one bidder and a vendor close to agreeing the sale price. I started moving the bid upwards. After it had gone 5% higher than the record sale price for that street, I was outbid again and at that point I "walked away"
On reflection, I realised it was so easy for me - Mr Nobody on the phone (no id required) - to push this price up significantly. Demand and supply my a***. There's nothing beats the combination of frenzied-manipulated buyers and profit-crazed banks !
I lost out on the house but maybe in some small way I helped move house prices closer to the breaking point.
Your analysis parallels exactly the way we've been thinking for a while now. No-where in the purchase of property today are the 'normal' questions being asked about suitability of the property/location/amenities for your particular life.Calina said:So, my latest feeling on future movements of property prices: it looks to me as if collectively, a lot of people are not approaching this with any sense of rationality.
Calina said:This state of affairs could last for quite a long time because there is no accounting for the will of man and woman with mortgage approval. But it cannot last indefinitely. By the time it comes to an end though, I might have skipped the country. I'm seeking the logic in staying somewhere with a woefully inadequate transport - either personal or public - infrastructure, bloody expensive and average quality (at best) sprawled out housing, where it rains as well...and I'm not finding it. It must be hidden somewhere but darn it to hell, I just can't see it.
You've hit the nail on the head for me there. I've already left. Buying something in Ireland just didn't make sense to me. Like many I missed the boat a few years ago, and the size of any potential purchase (in Dublin) got a lot smaller. I had no intention of living in the 'burbs in a city with an extremely poor transport system among other social problems. Other "cities" in Ireland just don't have the choice of employment in my field (IT), and prices (e.g. Galway) have also gotten out of hand anyway. I've no idea if there will be a major correction in the market, but I won't be surprised if there is. I think that a lot of people who have stretched themseleves with a large mortgage will feel the pinch in the years to come. Higher interest rates, and more expenses (children, etc.) in a relatively low inflation environment that won't erode mortgage debt so quickly.I might have skipped the country. I'm seeking the logic in staying somewhere with a woefully inadequate transport - either personal or public - infrastructure, bloody expensive and average quality (at best) sprawled out housing, where it rains as well...and I'm not finding it. It must be hidden somewhere but darn it to hell, I just can't see it.
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