Formation of new government

[cork]

so who should govern in your opinion cork?

I think that we need a government. Not alone that - government needs to last a term.

I don't think FG/FF are compatible. I think all the TDs need to talk and tease this out.

Hard to know - what structures would be needed in a multi person agreement.

 

[Purple]

If FF went in with the FG then the Republican wing of FF would defect to the Shinners. That's if Gerry resigned and Many Lou, former FF herself, was in charge. That would cost FF 6-8 seats.

 

[Dr.Debt]

I think Micheal Martin has his own master plan and he certainly has his eye on the prize.

During this current election campaign MM consistently said that he would not enter government with FG or SF yet his lust for power is unquestionable. He also talks incessantly about the need for reform in Irish politics and the need to do things differently.

I think what we will see in the coming days is the Micheal Martin PR machine springing into action once again. He is going to ask
every newly elected TD in the dail (with possible exceptions for Kenny / Adams) to support him in his bid to become taoiseach.
I think he will be asking individual TDs within FG and SF to support him also. His timing is good as nobody really wants Kenny back
I also think that his plan will be fully executed before Kenny even starts to understand what he is about. If he succeeds with this, he will be elected as Taoiseach in the next dail. If he fails we will be back to a second election but I think Martin is hoping that when the 2nd election comes around that the majority of people will accept by then that Martin is the only realistic choice as leader and vote accordingly.In short MM is already canvassing and posturing for the 2nd election although this might not be so apparent to some. In fact its possible that he was always plotting for a 2nd election.

Disclaimer : I have nothing at all to do with Fianna Fail. Just my own observation and prediction of what is about to unfold.

 

[Purple]

During this current election campaign MM consistently said that he would not enter government with FG or SF yet his lust for power is unquestionable.

Disclaimer : I have nothing at all to do with Fianna Fail. Just my own observation and prediction of what is about to unfold.

Given the first line above I didn't think you did have a connection with FF.

 

[thedaddyman]

I presume the first thing that needs to happen is the election of the Ceann Comhraile. On the basis that CC is expected to go with the Govt in a tied vote, I wonder if history will be made and an "opposition" CC elected.?

If FG + Lab have 58 votes they need to find another 21 votes. the Healy Raes and Lowry can be sorted, as can potentially the Independent alliance. That leaves them needing 14. they'll make a big play for the Greens and the SD's (although personally I think both would be daft to enter into any formal arrangement), that leaves them needing 8 and I'd say they could make a good play for some of the other independents

Hence FG have a reasonable change of forming a minority govt. If FF adopt a Tallaght strategy then then could survive for a number of months. FF would only bring them down for the "right" reason, which is likely to be the budget or a failure to do something radical around Irish Water or Health.

I'd say an autumn or early winter election is on the cards.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

It's either the Grand Alliance or another GE. FF are totally in the driving seat. They will be making a strategic call on the best option for them and that is not accusing them of being cynical, every party believes that theirs and the country's interest are identical.

IMHO it is unquestionably in FF's interest to have another GE and quick. Reasons:

1) FG punched above their weight in this election. Some brilliant vote management, the Labour transfer pact and a Ceann Comhairle thrown in for free. At almost the same % vote as FF they have a bloated seat bonus. These are unlikely to play out in a re-run.

2) SF had a relatively poor result and FF were the main beneficiaries. If FF wait too long SF might fix their biggest handicap - their leader.

3) The alternative of keeping FG in power for a while either formally or informally can hardly be enhancing to FF's future election outcomes.

So if I were a FF strategist I would be plotting for a re-run as quick as possible but trying to be seen as not to blame for it.

 

[Ceist Beag]

That won't wash with the public Duke. If another election is called quickly there is no way the public will accept this happily and all parties will get some blame but I think FF and FG risk the biggest portion of the blame. Even if this does happen I don't think even the most optimistic FF supporter would seriously expect much change other than a swap in the numbers between themselves and FG which would leave us in pretty much the same position again. I hope and think that the parties will take a long hard considered look at the results in this election before even starting to think about what can be done to form a government. Any talk of a quick return to the electorate is highly risky and I can't see any party with the appetite for that.

 

[thedaddyman]

Can't see SF fixing the issue over the leader in the short term. Think they will be keeping him in until the next presidential election. I also can't help wondering if the Northies decided to send him down south out of their way. They also have an issue that whilst everyone down south assumes Mary Lou will be the new leader, not sure the Northies would see it that way, especially given her lack of involvement in "the struggle"

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

That won't wash with the public Duke. If another election is called quickly there is no way the public will accept this happily and all parties will get some blame but I think FF and FG risk the biggest portion of the blame. Even if this does happen I don't think even the most optimistic FF supporter would seriously expect much change other than a swap in the numbers between themselves and FG which would leave us in pretty much the same position again. I hope and think that the parties will take a long hard considered look at the results in this election before even starting to think about what can be done to form a government. Any talk of a quick return to the electorate is highly risky and I can't see any party with the appetite for that.

I agree that is about all they could hope for. No one is going to sweep into a commanding position any time soon, so the next Government will be a FF/FG arrangement either formal or informal. But the psychological pieces are not yet in play for that. The current numbers say Michael Martin and FF would have to be the junior partner. If I were FF I would never accept that (purely at the narrow strategic level of self interest) and indeed the FF grass roots resistance as personified by Dillie O'Wee seems very strong. Now a situation with MM and FF in the driving seat and FG with a new leader might just see FG accept the junior role.

Can't see SF fixing the issue over the leader in the short term. Think they will be keeping him in until the next presidential election. I also can't help wondering if the Northies decided to send him down south out of their way. They also have an issue that whilst everyone down south assumes Mary Lou will be the new leader, not sure the Northies would see it that way, especially given her lack of involvement in "the struggle"

Not any time soon but maybe within two years, certainly a disincentive to FF limping along in a Tallaght (2) strategy for that sort of time frame.

 

[Ceist Beag]

Another bizarre quote from SF

Outgoing Donegal North East TD Pádraig MacLochlainn of Sinn Féin has said that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael should form a government because it would mean a right wing government facing a left wing opposition.

He said that this would be healthy and in the best interests of all Irish people.

So to summarise, left wing party member says right wing government is in the best interests of all Irish people!

 

[Purple]

Another bizarre quote from SF

So to summarise, left wing party member says right wing government is in the best interests of all Irish people!

By the standards of developed countries around the world it's a major stretch to describe either FF or FG as right wing.
We have a choice of left wing or very left wing.

 

[jim]

Ceist Beag, I think his point was that a right wing gove versus a left wing opposition was in the interest of the people - not that a right wing gove by itself was in the interest of the people - probably still a bizarre quote though!

 

[Ceist Beag]

By the standards of developed countries around the world it's a major stretch to describe either FF or FG as right wing.
We have a choice of left wing or very left wing.

Point taken Purple but it just highlights the strange logic of SF that they are coming out claiming that a FF/FG coalition government would be in the best interests of the Irish people when SF object to almost every proposal in the FG and FF manifestos! SF are already in canvas mode for the next election it seems...

 

[odyssey06]

If FF go into coalition with FG, it will last for the 5 years... If FF stand back and allow a FG minority government to form, it will be with the intention of bringing them down in 6 - 12 months when it suits FF and they think they have a chance of a clear run at power e.g. 60 seats or so.

 

[Purple]

If FF go into coalition with FG, it will last for the 5 years... If FF stand back and allow a FG minority government to form, it will be with the intention of bringing them down in 6 - 12 months when it suits FF and they think they have a chance of a clear run at power e.g. 60 seats or so.

Yep.
The Shinners want an FF/FG government. The last thing they want is to be in power.

 

[Gerry Canning]

Not sure if option is left or more left.
Not sure what (left or more left,) really mean any more, they seem to have become with (right or more right) lazy last century handles to try to differentiate parties..
I would have thought all the developed Nordic and European countries would fall into (left) ?

Maybe
left = people ,
Right = business,
Most parties are trying to keep business and people in sync , and that is healthy..

 

[44brendan]

For an impartial observer this is an extremely interesting political scenario. Unfortunately most of us don't have the luxury of being impartial.
It was probably only a matter of time before the lack of differential between FF & FG created this scenario. The votes borrowed by FG at the last election (remember that plea?) have now been taken back. Should be no real surprise to FG. I think other than the hardened party faithful most of us would have no problem with a FF/FG coalition (temporary or permanent).
To be somewhat fair to SF they have some good TD's who are shackled at the moment by the singularity of the leadership. IF GA was taken out of the equation they would likely revert to a middle left party which could easily take over the mantle from Labour. Given the significant turn to the left by Labour UK I think SF Nua would be slightly more centralist if/when Gerry moves on. This would likely involve a separation of North/South leaders as I can't see any alternative leader being acceptable to both sides of SF.
An early new election is going to be a high risk strategy for both FF/FG. Many of those marginal seats could head off in any direction. Have we ever seen as many seats divided by such small voting numbers?
Fergie would definitely view this as being squeaky bum time for us all!!

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

By the standards of developed countries around the world it's a major stretch to describe either FF or FG as right wing.
We have a choice of left wing or very left wing.

Up to a point Purple. Our tax rates are progressive for sure and our social protection rates compare well. But we definitely have an unfair two tier health system compared to peers. Similarly for education, albeit to a lesser degree. Our legal system seems greatly tilted towards the elite classes - witness no convictions yet for the €65bn heist.

 

[Dermot]

But we definitely have an unfair two tier health system compared to peers.

I do not disagree with you on that. T

The problem with it is not about the amount of money that is spent on it, it is the way that it is spent or administered. Political answers of throwing more money at it will not sort it out. The whole culture in the health service needs to change. To many layers of administrative bureaucracy in it. More front line staff less back office for a start.
It is not going to be sorted out by politicians so it probably never will. It would take a least 10 years to stream line it and no Government would survive with what might have to be done in the first 5 years.
Throw a few €billion more into it any there would be very little improvement
I do not have the links but I have seen figures showing that we have one of the highest spends on health per head of population when account is taken of age profile/number of private paying patients.

 

[Purple]

I am increasingly of the opinion that the state's incompetence in delivering public services is undermining democracy in this country. The people who depend on services use their local TD to maneuver through the system in order to get what they should get as a matter of course. The people who pay for it all see their hard earned money being wasted by un-sanctionable and largely unaccountable state bodies due to incompetence and inefficient processes. This undermines the legitimacy of the state in the same way corruption does in developing countries. It fosters resentment and division between working people and those who depend on welfare and between those who work outside the state sector and those who work within it.
These insidious issues are slowly fracturing the cohesiveness of our country.