election 2020 trump v who

Conundrum solved. It was the FT Tracker which was not up to speed. The betting is aligned with the most recent shift in polls. Apparently the Republican convention was far better in promoting its candidate than the rival one and the continuing street anarchy is playing right into the hands of Trump. I will just have to reconcile myself to the fact that the pompous narcissistic bully will probably win again but will be reliant on the electoral college gerrymander.
Daily Express said:
Donald Trump is heading for second presidential victory, poll shows
DONALD TRUMP is on course to win the US presidential election with a three-point lead over Joe Biden, a shock poll suggests.
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Purple said:
Well she was certainly never electable.
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Against Donald Trump? I think she would, her poll ratings in primaries had gone ahead of Harris who subsequently quit - now Harris makes up part of the 'ticket'?
We will never know now, all speculation, but I would imagine she would take on Trump blindfolded and with one hand tied behind her back.
 
WolfeTone said:
Against Donald Trump? I think she would, her poll ratings in primaries had gone ahead of Harris who subsequently quit - now Harris makes up part of the 'ticket'?
We will never know now, all speculation, but I would imagine she would take on Trump blindfolded and with one hand tied behind her back.
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Her pole ratings with Democrats weren't the problem, it's whether she could win over the floating voters in the middle ground of the swing States. She is just too alien for the Christians in the land of the permanently frightened. Americans have lots of guns and lots of police to try to compensate for the fact that they have no backbone.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I am trying to understand the betting. I have no doubt that if the election was tomorrow Trump would be at least 20/1 based on current polls.
Yes all the social media stuff is affecting the way folk make up their minds but a poll is a poll. The betting markets clearly do not think that today's polls are a reliable indication of people's views in 2 months' time, but I think they would accept that they are a fair representation of their current views.
They think it is all up for grabs. I have mentioned a few possible game changers in Trump's favour between now and polling day. There may also be the view that he is not beyond dirty tricks. Maybe take out another Iranian general or a faux trade dispute with China.
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I disagree with some of the predictions on here and think an evens bet on Biden is pretty good odds at the moment. Recall that the overall polls in 2016 were reasonably accurate at the overall vote share. The failure was on the state by state calculations and the electoral college. But the outcome at the time was rated as a 30% chance - not out of the range of possibilities. And the estimate is about the same now - again not out of the realm of possibilities but would be unlikely.

But if we forget our biases and leanings, looking purely at the betting markets rather than polls there is an internal inconsistency. I can't square the following;

Overall winner : pretty much dead even. But popular vote winner is about 1:4 for Biden. So the betting market is predicting quite a significant likelihood of Biden winning the popular vote.

So that requires Trump to repeat 2016 and win the electoral college with a minority popular vote. Two ways he can do this;
- Repeat 2016 and win Florida, Penn, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina
- Not win all of the above but swap out a number of smaller states for some of the bigger ones which would require winning Navada and Maine but still requires Florida, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina.

So looking at the betting markets for the states. The states he needs to win in either route
Florida (even)
Arizona (even)
Georgia has Trump at 1.3 so pretty safe but North Carolina at 1.66 is less conclusive

For route 1 above
Pennsylvania has Democrats favourites at 1.6
Wisconsin has Dems @ 1.7
Michigan has Dems @ 1.5

For route 2 above
Maine has Dems at 1.25
Nevada looks pretty safe

So I can't reconcile markets which (a) show high probability of Biden winning popular vote, (b) shows a lot of critical states at evens which Trump would need to win ALL of irrespective of which route to 270 electoral votes and(c) shows Democrats favourites to win swing states in both routes to 270 which he would also need to win ALL of (in either route) and yet.... has Trump as evens to get to 270.

On a pure stats / probability basis - there has to be an arbitrage there. From a stats point of view, (Fl @ 0.5) x (Ar @ 0.5) etc etc can't equal 0.5 probability of overall win

EDIT : had originally stated 290 electoral college votes as amount required as spotted by Duke. Have changed
 
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EmmDee said:
I disagree with some of the predictions on here and think an evens bet on Biden is pretty good odds at the moment. Recall that the overall polls in 2016 were reasonably accurate at the overall vote share. The failure was on the state by state calculations and the electoral college. But the outcome at the time was rated as a 30% chance - not out of the range of possibilities. And the estimate is about the same now - again not out of the realm of possibilities but would be unlikely.

But if we forget our biases and leanings, looking purely at the betting markets rather than polls there is an internal inconsistency. I can't square the following;

Overall winner : pretty much dead even. But popular vote winner is about 1:4 for Biden. So the betting market is predicting quite a significant likelihood of Biden winning the popular vote.

So that requires Trump to repeat 2016 and win the electoral college with a minority popular vote. Two ways he can do this;
- Repeat 2016 and win Florida, Penn, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina
- Not win all of the above but swap out a number of smaller states for some of the bigger ones which would require winning Navada and Maine but still requires Florida, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina.

So looking at the betting markets for the states. The states he needs to win in either route
Florida (even)
Arizona (even)
Georgia has Trump at 1.3 so pretty safe but North Carolina at 1.66 is less conclusive

For route 1 above
Pennsylvania has Democrats favourites at 1.6
Wisconsin has Dems @ 1.7
Michigan has Dems @ 1.5

For route 2 above
Maine has Dems at 1.25
Nevada looks pretty safe

So I can't reconcile markets which (a) show high probability of Biden winning popular vote, (b) shows a lot of critical states at evens which Trump would need to win ALL of irrespective of which route to 290 electoral votes and(c) shows Democrats favourites to win swing states in both routes to 290 which he would also need to win ALL of (in either route) and yet.... has Trump as evens to get to 290.

On a pure stats / probability basis - there has to be an arbitrage there. From a stats point of view, (Fl @ 0.5) x (Ar @ 0.5) etc etc can't equal 0.5 probability of overall win
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Before doing a deep dive on your analysis, was 290 central to your argument or was it just a misprint of the correct figure of 270?
 
EmmDee said:
The latter, sorry - I meant to say 270
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Of course Trump to win Florida and to win Arizona are far from independent events, if he wins Florida he most likely wins Arizona. But you know that.
I would agree that it is difficult to see him winning overall if he loses Florida so both events being even money looks inconsistent. So a possible arbitrage (not airtight of course) is to Bet Trump wins Florida and Lay Trump wins Overall. Difficult to see both losing and yet a fair chance to win both. Most likely outcome break even. I would put the percentages as follows:
Both win or both lose (break even on the bets): 80%
Wins Florida, loses overall (win of 2 on the bets): 15%
Loses Florida, wins overall (loss of 2 on the bets): 5%
Expected percentage win per unit stake: 20%

And one might not need to run the naked risk, the markets could correct themselves and so you can cash out at a profit.
 
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I made a nice few bob out of backing Trump (in the bookies, not policy wise I might add :)) last time round, Once the Dems had selected Hilary it was a foregone conclusion. I don't think we really appreciate the visceral hatred many Americans have for the Clintons

Not sure this time around, it may come down to turnout and if the Republicans can keep turnout low, they may stumble over the line
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
And one might not need to run the naked risk, the markets could correct themselves and so you can cash out at a profit.
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Looks like the market has corrected to some extent. Still think 5/4 for Trump is pretty short odds given the number of things he needs to go the right way
 
I think I was right. Betting odds have moved appreciably overnight. Biden now 1.66 given that he didn’t fall, despite The Donald barging repeatedly into him. Two more fences to go.
 
Watching last night you were just left with the impression that America needs to do some serious soul searching if either of these two are able to become the President. Nothing left to say about Trump but Biden doesn't impress me in the slightest either. And that is from someone with an 'Irish Catholic' background just like him......
 
Pretty deplorable event. Trump was his own worst enemy by persistently interrupting like a petulant child. He actually did quite well when being the salesman, selling the economy and law & order. But its hard to think he is not still somewhat an adolescent.

Biden held up better than I thought he would, a few stumbles but no obvious clangers. Best line of the night to Biden, "how can you take this clown seriously?....sorry, this President"
 
WolfeTone said:
Pretty deplorable event. Trump was his own worst enemy by persistently interrupting like a petulant child. He actually did quite well when being the salesman, selling the economy and law & order. But its hard to think he is not still somewhat an adolescent.

Biden held up better than I thought he would, a few stumbles but no obvious clangers. Best line of the night to Biden, "how can you take this clown seriously?....sorry, this President"
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I was most struck by the silence after being asked if he would dennounce white supremesicts - it was only then I realised he was a constant background noise for the whole thing. The couple of seconds of silence stood out
 
What a week, trump gets covid, spends few days in hospital and now looks to be cured, if this turns out to be the case how does that play in the election. If indeed it is the case that he is truly over the covid it can only be a big bonus. If he had of gotten very sick like Boris Johnson his campaign would have been finished. Trump ignites a lot of emotions but compassion and sympathy is not one of them even among his base. Trump would not have got a sympathy vote
 
"trump gets covid, spends few days in hospital and now looks to be cured" a friend keeps telling me this is fake covid (i dont think so based on those around him getting it)
but he says a republican supporter would think about this , trump claimed this was less serious than flu. 1 (trump out of hospital in days) 2 (trump claimed the democrats ,cdc and fake media was preventing vaccine etc being released before election ,same cocktail of drugs he has now got and cured , does make me think did he have it or was it a tactic, risky though?
 
Most people don’t have access to a helicopter and Their own private ward.He probably got a mild dose, was diagnosed early, received the best healthcare in the world and is now overstating now well he feels.
 
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EmmDee said:
Looks like the market has corrected to some extent. Still think 5/4 for Trump is pretty short odds given the number of things he needs to go the right way
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Trump now 2.4 to win Florida and 3.3 to win Outright. The arbitrage (buy F at 2, sell O at 2) would be well in the money.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Trump now 2.4 to win Florida and 3.3 to win Outright. The arbitrage (buy F at 2, sell O at 2) would be well in the money.
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Yeah the odds are moving a bit now. I sold Trump outright at 2.6 for a small amount - I should have listened to myself and gone for more.

But there isn't a lot of value out there. Maybe Texas for Biden which is about 3.3 but it is sounding a lot tighter than that. But most of the swing states are heavily leaning to Dems
 
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