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One of the problems I have with statements like this is it appears to assume that a few years ago, *everyone* could afford to buy something. They couldn't. A lot of them still can't, even more so because house prices went up so much faster than incomes did. But there's no need to criticise them for saving in the meantime. I would have assumed it was what you did up front, right?homeowner said:
CelloPoint
Registered User
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fatmanknows said:
Indeed, the history of human nature doesn't change much. Watch out for the 'dead cat bounce' though - it's cocky guys like you that will get nabbed.
SHARP said:
I'd be interested to know what the average house size is. I grew up in 1200sq ft bungalow, and all this talk of 3000sq ft is starting to melt my brain. Are their people who seriously judge their success in life by how big the house is? Do you know how hard it is to clean 3000 sq foot of house?
It's not the size of the house which makes a home.
I wonder if Irish people played too much Monopoly as children
The general rule was buy as many properties as you could as quickly as possible - well apart from Kimmage or Crumlin. Just as now, nobody paid attention to rental yield. Everyone wanted Shrewsbury Road which had an 8% yield as a site only! Grafton St paid 8.75%
Poor old Kimmage and Crumlin - if you were stuck with them, you could make them scary with a hotel or two.
Did anyone ever pay attention to yield in Monopoly? No
Did prices ever drop in Monopoly? No.
We learned about property by playing a game that was flawed! I blame Monopoly.
The general rule was buy as many properties as you could as quickly as possible - well apart from Kimmage or Crumlin. Just as now, nobody paid attention to rental yield. Everyone wanted Shrewsbury Road which had an 8% yield as a site only! Grafton St paid 8.75%
Poor old Kimmage and Crumlin - if you were stuck with them, you could make them scary with a hotel or two.
Did anyone ever pay attention to yield in Monopoly? No
Did prices ever drop in Monopoly? No.
We learned about property by playing a game that was flawed! I blame Monopoly.
B
Bedsit
Guest
Just to clarify the immigrant issue as I think this will be a big talking point in the future. In my opinion there are two broad categories of immigrants in Ireland. The first are EU nationals (Eastern European mainly) who have the option of moving to another EU country in search of greener pastures. Then there is the second category, Non EU nationals who are largely on work permits, work visas etc and who cannot change jobs or country that easily. These are the people who have increasingly bought into the housing bubble in recent years. These immigrants will have no appetite for selling up and leaving at a loss. Secondly many of these immigrants are here with a view of staying permanently or at least until they are granted citizenship. This is where I think we will have a real problem.CelloPoint said:
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walk2dewater
Guest
homeowner said:
You sound a little smug my friend. The next installment on the roller coaster is fear.
walk2dewater said:
You are very quick to call people suckers and point out how clever you are for waiting for this crash.
I dont think its smug of me to point out that you have placed yourself at a disadvantage by sitting on cash that is depreciating in value as inflation and house prices rise faster than you can save.
Dont dish it if you cant take it.
fatmanknows said:
So probably a decade away. Meanwhile inflation will be eating up the value of your savings faster than the nominal value of property is falling.
I would forget about making a killing on the inevitable casualties of Ireland's property collapse but concentrate instead on the altogether more difficult task of preserving the value of your own wealth.
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Bedsit
Guest
US mortgage market rebounds on brighter outlook
[broken link removed]
I guess everything is hunky dory again!!
Irish Times said:
[broken link removed]
I guess everything is hunky dory again!!
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walk2dewater
Guest
homeowner said:You are very quick to call people suckers and point out how clever you are for waiting for this crash.
I dont think its smug of me to point out that you have placed yourself at a disadvantage by sitting on cash that is depreciating in value as inflation and house prices rise faster than you can save.
Dont dish it if you cant take it.
You're making a lot of assumptions about my financial situation, arnt you? But lets not bring it up, and I won't guess yours.
Im talking about the current round of sheep getting fleeced to prop up the pyramid. I make no bones about calling buyers at todays prices "suckers" or "saps"; what else do you call a buyer who borrows x10 their salary to buy something thats gone up x3 in price in <10yrs?
Astute?
Bedsit said:
Watch the yield curve on American Bonds. Long dated T bills are up and down at present.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
walk2dewater said:
You cant borrow x10 your salary. x5 is the most the banks will give you and that is only recently. It used to be 3.5 times your salary plus 1.5 times your partner's salary. So I dont understand your argument.
Also I would like to point out that people under the age of say 26 who bought at their currently salary will most likely see a large increase in their salary as they progress in their careers and double incomes when they move in with someone, so what might seem like a huge multiple of salary now will not be so big in 5-10 years time. In fact those people will be in the best position for clearing their mortgages off much earlier.
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Bedsit
Guest
This is assuming that there will be no downturn in the employment sector. One has to remember that a large number of the jobs created in recent years have been property related such as in retail, banking, law firms etc. Many of these jobs will disappear along with the property boom.homeowner said:
howstrange
Registered User
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I have been watching this post for quite a while and am fascinated by it!! I am a renter myself and have been hoping to get on the property ladder for the last couple of years but have held off as I have believed for quite a while that property is way overvalued and the inevitable will happen! In that 2 years I have been told by parents, friends etc "get in there now", "buy before it is too late" etc etc. I have held firm though sticking to my beliefs but at the same time laughed at cos I am waiting for the bubble to burst!! I just didnt want to buy a badly constructed gaff that is in a place I had no interest in living just to get on the "property ladder". Anyway for the 1st time I am starting to think I did the right thing!
This post has been dragging on with different viewpoints but would be keen to see some more concrete indications of a turning property market. My own experiences and observations have been as follows:
- Friend had a house for sale in Kerry for a year and had to drop the price to generate interest. Sold it for €30K less!
- Look on Myhome.ie at Inchicore, apt block called the Tramyard. At the money there are 6 apts up for sale and I think some have been for a while. Are they all going to sell for the asking price??
- Mate of mine renting in new apt block in Cork street. Most of the apts are empty!
- A bulk of amateur speculators hoping for a quick buck!
Would like to see other peoples observations too. In my opinion these are the 1st signs. With oil and energy prices only heading north in the near future adding inflationary pressures, I think there are many more interest rate increases on the way. Investors realising there is no many to be made will start selling rapidly. Basic economic theory, supply > demand => price goes down!! In this case rapidly!!!
This post has been dragging on with different viewpoints but would be keen to see some more concrete indications of a turning property market. My own experiences and observations have been as follows:
- Friend had a house for sale in Kerry for a year and had to drop the price to generate interest. Sold it for €30K less!
- Look on Myhome.ie at Inchicore, apt block called the Tramyard. At the money there are 6 apts up for sale and I think some have been for a while. Are they all going to sell for the asking price??
- Mate of mine renting in new apt block in Cork street. Most of the apts are empty!
- A bulk of amateur speculators hoping for a quick buck!
Would like to see other peoples observations too. In my opinion these are the 1st signs. With oil and energy prices only heading north in the near future adding inflationary pressures, I think there are many more interest rate increases on the way. Investors realising there is no many to be made will start selling rapidly. Basic economic theory, supply > demand => price goes down!! In this case rapidly!!!
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