Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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`Well as they say 'give people freedom and all they do is imitate each other'
 
walk2dewater said:
..But answer me this Homeowner, cos this is the real crux of the issue: Why don't you want to see cheaper housing? Sure don't we all want things we need to be cheaper, cheaper petrol, cheaper clothes, cheaper food?
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Count me in......I make no bones about where I want things to go. The bigger and harder the coming crash the better. Surely no one will hold that against me. If after all, all you property owning barons (particularly the multi-owning BTL/investor brigade, which largely has the market the way it is) are wishing your bricks and morter higher and higher thus depriving affordability to more and more - then what's wrong with my take on things. Surely my view is the more moral of the two- increasing affordability for the masses. Hey think about, if please God, the crash is as hard as I hope it is we'll all be able to buy and live in D4 and be happy ever after.
 
phoenix_n said:
"The severity of the winner's curse gets stronger as the number of bidders increases. This is because the more bidders there are, the more likely it is that some of them have greatly overestimated the good's value. In technical terms, the winner's expected estimate is the value of the first order statistic, which increases as the number of bidders increases."

Isnt that what happened in the first quater of this year. I can attest to this having being involved in numerous bidding wars where thankfully i always lost.
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Very interesting link. This also mirrors my experiences in the second quarter. Potential FTB looking for small 3 bed end of terrace in the cheaper areas of south Dublin (Crumlin etc). Got involved in a number of bidding wars where the bids reached what I considered to be a fair value for such a property in the prevailing market - which was also my limit. This figure was, by nature of the fact I was bidding at all, already well above what I consider to be a true estimate of the actual value of the property. I was basing my actual value estimate on %age of salary required to pay mortgage, house prices to wages ratio, comparissons with similar cities abroad (I've previously posted comparissons with Munich), etc. Anyway after reaching my limit, father (bless him) offered to contribute an extra €20,000. I was reluctant to take this for a number of reasons, but in the end did continue bidding up to my limit plus the extra €20K and still lost out.

At the moment I'm glad I did lose out, and have become more bearish about the property market (due to the general state of the economy) since then. God knows how I'll feel about this time next year, with the advantage of hindsight.
 
walk2dewater said:
[
But answer me this Homeowner, cos this is the real crux of the issue: Why don't you want to see cheaper housing? Sure don't we all want things we need to be cheaper, cheaper petrol, cheaper clothes, cheaper food?
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I havent said I wanted house prices to go up nor have I said I want them to go down. What I think will happen and I what I want to happen are not necessarily the same thing.

I personally dont think there will be a crash, as I have said many times on this and other boards, I think there will be a levelling off in about 12-18 months and prices will rise with inflation. But hey, thats just my opinion and it has just as much a chance of being wrong as all the other opinions here.

I think cheaper housing would be great for people who cant buy at current prices. I know lots of people who would benefit from cheaper housing. Would I like to see houses on my road being sold for 100K less than what I paid, of course not. But it wont effect me if it does happen as I am not planning on selling, ever, as far as I can see now. I dont have investment properties and I havent over stretched myself.

It seems to me that the people who are predicting doom and gloom here have a vested interest in the market crashing. I would like to hear from people who like me wont be affected, Id like to hear what they think. And if that is the posters here, can they say that so we can put more weight on their opinion rather than people on either side of the debate who "need" the market to go one way or the other.
 
homeowner said:
And if that is the posters here, can they say that so we can put more weight on their opinion rather than people on either side of the debate who "need" the market to go one way or the other.
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We need to remember that in a debate, although people may make a very strong case for one side, it doesn't mean that they are wishing for it. I'm not wishing or hoping for a crash, I just think that one is going to happen.
 
phoenix_n said:
In reality FTB's should be alright. So what if the house has fallen value they still need a place to live and they are reducing their capital. Once they didnt get into a bidding war or choose 'best house in worst location' then all things being equal there should be no real problems. Trader uppers made use of the equity and in reality are paying somewhat simmilar mortgages if not a bit higher. This group will need to cut costs but in general they overall expenditure is decreasing anyway.

Its really 1 and 2 bed apartments bought by investors that are gonna get the hit as when you have to subside the mortgage and having to deal with an illiquid asset then many will try to cut and run. The illiquidity of the asset, i think, will be the 'newest' conversation to be had at those parties. You're stuck with something than is costing you money and no-one wants to buy it. And you hear that poland/germany etc is the place to be buying.....
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I'd say the new topic of conversation in middle-class Ireland will be quiet quiet whisperings about who got caught out. Just like the gambler who wants to tell the world about his big win, but say nothing when he loses the rent money, Cyril Speculator will take his losses and shut his mouth for fear of looking like an idiot
 
phoenix_n said:
In reality FTB's should be alright. So what if the house has fallen value they still need a place to live and they are reducing their capital. Once they didnt get into a bidding war or choose 'best house in worst location' then all things being equal there should be no real problems. Trader uppers made use of the equity and in reality are paying somewhat simmilar mortgages if not a bit higher. This group will need to cut costs but in general they overall expenditure is decreasing anyway.

Its really 1 and 2 bed apartments bought by investors that are gonna get the hit as when you have to subside the mortgage and having to deal with an illiquid asset then many will try to cut and run. The illiquidity of the asset, i think, will be the 'newest' conversation to be had at those parties. You're stuck with something than is costing you money and no-one wants to buy it. And you hear that poland/germany etc is the place to be buying.....
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I'd have to qualify that statement. I'm not entirely sure that all those FTBs were fortunate enough to be in a position to buy something which they could consider living in for years and years to come. There are a lot of FTBs in one bedroomed apartments in poorly serviced blocks who will get caught because their ability to trade up may be limited, particularly if they had a high LTV. One of my main other cribs about property in Ireland has been the lack of attention to the utility of new developments being built, and the heavy emphasis on starter homes which have no long term needs in mind.
 
Kudos to Whathome for posting the means of comparing current asking prices versus google-cached.

I find it quite interesting that the estate agents are making no reference to the higher price and are avoiding the phrase "asking price reduced" which would be a normal sales term to attract in buyers.

Is it likely they are just not psychologically prepared yet for selling in a falling market? New sales paradigm ahead ?

They'll learn quick enough I suppose.
 
edo said:
Jeez Gravity Girl !

Dont know if I fully understand the point you are trying to make - but I think the rest of the guys have pretty much nailed it already.

there is no way on Gods Earth that property price per square foot is worth more in BallyBough than Manhattans upper east side .

Apartment versus House is irrelevant here - there only "houses" I know in Manhattan are in the Zoo in Central Park!

With all respect When someone can justify that a relatively neglected,underdeveloped (with lots of potential heh heh!) inner suburb of what is a provincial European City is worth more than a classy gentrified upper class area of one of the Worlds Greatest and wealthiest cities , without a batting an eyelid at the complete absurdity of it all - Then everything that has happened with the property market in this country becomes clear - We've completely lost the friggin plot!

Sayonara Folks - Japanese style property market here we come!
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sorry i wasn't for a second saying that the D3 house was worth the same, I was merely pointing out the technicalities of comparing like-with-like, regardless of the underlying point really... :)
 
Its gonna be an interesting next couple of months to see (after following this thread for weeks now) how the market really pans out.

Remix said:
I find it quite interesting that the estate agents are making no reference to the higher price and are avoiding the phrase "asking price reduced" which would be a normal sales term to attract in buyers.
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Where the vendor wants it sold he won't care what language the agent will use.
 
One thing we have not talked about in the last few posts is the cyclical nature of the property boom. Assuming that there is some sort of a correction or crash much of the house building will slowdown/stop. This will result in large numbers of immigrants out of work, and some of them will undoubtedly return home or go looking for jobs in other EU countries. This in turn will mean more empty apartments and houses. This will have a knock on effect in the services sector, less people buying DIY, home furnishings, eating out etc. So in turn small business will start laying off people, again many of these are immigrants or students who rent apartments and the cycle will continue downwards. Dare I even mention the backlash we may have against foreigners who may be seen to be taking Irish jobs ....
 
[quote = homeowner] I would like to hear from people who like me won’t be affected, Id like to hear what they think. And if that is the posters here, can they say that so we can put more weight on their opinion rather than people on either side of the debate who "need" the market to go one way or the other.[/quote]

How do you know you won't be affected though?

You are presuming you won't, but I think the property market and the over dependence on it will bring down this country over the next few years. This will lead to loss of jobs in many areas directly and indirectly related to the construction/property market.

This will affect the WHOLE country me and YOU included.

I certainly don't want anything to crash and would love if everything eased off and realigned itself so we all could live happily ever after, but I just can’t see this happening when people are stretching themselves paying paying 500,000 on a tiny house on a 35 year mortgage (thinking to themselves that everything will be okay as the value will increased to 600,000 next year etc etc
 
i have an investor friend who built and bought houses around the city center in cork,location location location, all pre-1999.has about 17 now.
the rental covers all mortgage repayments comfortably.
i know he will be able to weather the crash.
but he feels pity for the later investors who borrowed on the equity of their ppr to buy appartments and houses to rent out. these guys have a heavy debt burden in an uncertain market.
 
Afuera said:
To get a 6% yield average, rent would have to rise to 2,400 per month or the average price of property would have to fall to 250,000 (a 48% drop).
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Yah. Rent will not rise in Ireland with the vacancy levels we have (16% of properties are empty) . Landlords (save in a few hotspots) have no pricing power.....meaning that rents will not rise.!!!!!

As we are different and special here in Ireland will will simply adjust to our 2% yields and carry on regardless , of course we will :p
 
I think that bedsit and Sharp have correctly identified the potentially ruinous implications of the standard economic money multiplier working in reverse should the single largest part of the economy slow down, or dare I say it, actually contract.
 
2Pack said:
Yah. Rent will not rise in Ireland with the vacancy levels we have (16% of properties are empty) . Landlords (save in a few hotspots) have no pricing power.....meaning that rents will not rise.!!!!!

As we are different and special here in Ireland will will simply adjust to our 2% yields and carry on regardless , of course we will :p
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Hit the nail on the head, there is so much property due to come on stream inside the next 12 months that rents will come down in nominal terms which will be a huge hit as inflation shows no sign of abating
 
Rising fuel costs, rising electricity prices, rising gas prices, rising interest rates.

When I think about the Irish property market it reminds me of the reality TV stolen car chases they used to show on the US TV programme - Cops.

Usually a high speed chase on a Freeway. The police would shoot at the tyres which would blow-out and the car would continue on it's metal rims for ages with sparks flying everywhere. It might then run into a barrier (maybe losing a door or bumber) but keep going, swerving from side to side. I'd say that's where were at right now. Each interest rate rise is another bullet in the car.
 
beattie said:
Hit the nail on the head, there is so much property due to come on stream inside the next 12 months that rents will come down in nominal terms which will be a huge hit as inflation shows no sign of abating
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Don't know about that. Currently I think property rental is already supported by HSE payments, certainly in the north Dublin area. And although I know it's the subject of much debate here, I really do wonder how much new property will go to rental given that the difference between rental income and mortgage outgoing is not in favour of the investor at the moment. Put simply, I think any savvy investor will be reluctant to invest a massive amount of money at this stage. I'm not expert enough to know if landlords can write off massive losses on one property against other properties where they have an income in excess of their costs.
 
phoenix_n said:
Where the vendor wants it sold he won't care what language the agent will use.
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Really? Do you mean that? How about "overpriced dump for quick sale"

My point is that there are vendors already out there wanting to sell with little or no buyer interest. Estate agents don't appear to have adapted yet to the situation. They might need to dig out and dust off the "price-reduced" and "must sell" boards that have been in storage for the past ten years or so!
 
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